Let’s ease back into another year of the Strike Zone with a rather brief first edition. Most of this was written while the lockout was in effect -- I had planned on posting it at the beginning of the month -- but things went sideways at home for a bit and, hey, now MLB is back, too. This column is essentially a look at what’s changed since we put the finishing touches on the paper version of the draft guide in early January. These changes have already been reflected in the online guide, but mostly without explanation. So, here are the explanations.
I’ll be back next week with my undervalued players for 2022.
Oriole Park Changes
- Just a few days after the draft guide was sent to the publisher, the Orioles kindly announced that they were making a rather huge change to their ballpark, taking out a big chunk of the left field bleachers in an effort to make the environment less hitter friendly. The thing about Oriole Park is that it hasn’t traditionally been all that great for run scoring; it’s always produced extra homers, but it’s given much that back by limiting doubles and triples. Lately, though, it had been more favorable to hitters than for most of its history; the 2022 Bill James Handbook gave it a park factor of 109 for run scoring the last three years, putting it only a tad behind Fenway and Kauffman in the AL. That the Orioles wanted to try to bring it closer to neutral makes sense, though by neutering left field and leaving center and right field alone, the effects will be uneven.
Obviously, the big beneficiary of the change is left-hander John Means. Means had a 3.62 ERA last season despite giving up a homer every five innings. I knocked three homers off his projected total of 29 in 159 innings for the season and bumped him from 56th to 35th among starting pitchers in my rankings.
Means is still the only Orioles starter of real interest in mixed leagues, though Jordan Lyles and Bruce Zimmermann at least have a better chance of holding their own now. I’ve been hoping that the Orioles would give Tyler Wells a shot, but it sounds like they’ll keep last year’s Rule 5 pick in the bullpen. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez could be a factor in the second half.
On the flipside, everyone in the Orioles lineup took at least minor hits in my rankings. I’m rather disappointed in that regard, because the group is on the upswing and possesses more hitters of interest than in recent years. Ryan Mountcastle took the biggest plunge, dropping from 50th to 77th among position players in my rankings. He’s not a dead pull hitter -- fortunately, none of Baltimore’s right-handed batters are -- but I still cut his home run projection by four (from 35 to 31) and took away some runs and RBI, as I did for every Orioles hitter.
Austin Hays, someone I’ve long liked perhaps more than I should, was the other player to take a big drop, going from 119th to 141st among position players. He has the highest pull rate among the team’s right-handed starters, and his chances of building on last year’s 22-homer campaign definitely took a hit.
Cedric Mullins merely dropped from 26th to 28th among position players. Not one of his 30 homers last year was hit to left field, so he doesn’t lose anything there. In truth, the change should help him a tad by opening up the opposite field a bit. Still, I did dock him a couple of runs scored and RBI.
Of course, I also had to extract one homer from the projection of Gleyber Torres. The Yankees infielder is a lifetime .333/.442/.690 hitter with eight homers in 104 plate appearances at Oriole Park.
Universal DH
- Actually, there aren’t any real changes here. This year’s draft guide projections have always assumed that there would be a universal designated hitter this year. Still, it’s nice to have it official now.
I don’t expect that many NL teams will be employing full-time DHs this year. The Padres might be the best bet, as they could go for Nelson Cruz or Jorge Soler to add some additional firepower to their lineup. Most teams will simply mix and match. That should benefit some top offensive catchers like Will Smith, J.T. Realmuto and Willson Contreras, all of whom could slide into the spot once a week or so. Darin Ruf, Clint Frazier and Garrett Cooper are some of the DH possibilities I like in deeper formats. However, there’s quite a bit that could change here once free agents start signing again.
One underrated aspect here is that the universal DH helps American League designated hitters as well. Should Cruz stay in the American League, he’ll no longer have to worry about those 9-10 games per year in NL parks. That aids Yordan Alvarez and Franmil Reyes some as well.
Lockout effects
- The delay of Opening Day by a week helps Ronald Acuna Jr., Max Muncy and some other rehabbing players a tad, but I’m not planning wholesale projection changes based on the shortened spring training and slightly compressed schedule. Many starting pitchers will throw fewer innings in April, for sure, but that might actually pay off for them in the long run. Of course, some will rush things and get hurt. That’s a particular danger for the pitchers trying to earn a spot, versus those that already have them.
Perhaps the biggest effect of the lockout here is that certain players won’t really have much of a chance to win those spots because of the short spring. The Cardinals were talking about giving Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks looks as starters this year, but that’s probably off the table now (which would seem to make Giovanny Gallegos a riskier closer pick). Nate Pearson in Toronto, Dinelson Lamet in San Diego and Aaron Ashby in Milwaukee also have shorter windows with which to try to force their way into rotations.
Injuries
- Third base in Texas again belongs to Isiah Kiner-Falefa after Josh Jung required surgery for an injured shoulder. I didn’t believe there was much chance at all of Jung getting the job initially, but I was hoping he could overtake Kiner-Falefa in June or July. Instead, it looks like he’ll be out until September. That makes Kiner-Falefa an option in deeper leagues. He could be of use in shallow leagues if he finds his way back into the leadoff spot, but it’d probably be better for the Rangers if he’s hitting eighth or ninth.
UPDATE: Kiner-Falefa was traded to the Twins on Saturday, with Mitch Garver headed back to Texas. Garver gets a boost in value with the trade, with the chance for additional at-bats out of the DH spot.
- Lance McCullers Jr. indicated late last month that his forearm strain was a little more severe than originally reported and that he hadn’t resumed throwing off a mound. That seemed to rule him out for the scheduled Opening Day, though with things now up in the air, it’s possible he could be ready when the season begins. My initial response was to drop McCullers from 41st to 62nd in the SP rankings. Based on what we hear over the next two weeks, he could fall further.
McCullers’ absence would presumably set an Astros rotation that didn’t appear to have room for both Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi. The team could also revisit Cristian Javier as a starter if it’s worried about McCullers for the long haul. Still, it probably won’t come to that initially. I was already assuming Urquidy would be in the rotation, and he’s my No. 50 SP. Odorizzi was bumped from 109th to 100th in the rankings with the McCullers news.
- Codi Heuer, who looked like a threat to close for the Cubs this year, underwent Tommy John surgery last week. That’d seem to be good news for Rowan Wick, who currently rates as the obvious choice to get the ninth inning, but it also makes it more likely that the Cubs will bring in an experienced closer. They might have done so anyway. I previously had Wick 57th and Heuer 60th in my RP rankings. Wick is up to 43rd now. My guess is that he gets supplanted, but if not, he’ll probably be in the 25-30 range come Opening Day.
