Alex Verdugo is someone I was awfully high on this year. He struck out just 16% of the time while also showing improved power last season, and it seemed to me that he could continue to progress at age 26. Instead, Verdugo is hitting just .213/.252/.323 thus far, even though his strikeout rate stands at a miniscule 11.5%. It’s a performance that suggests he’d dealing with some sort of power-sapping injury, though that doesn’t seem to be the case here. Maybe it’s just a particularly nasty case of dead ball syndrome?
Verdugo currently has an average exit velocity right at his career mark (89.2 mph to 89.1). He actually has 10 barrels for a career-best 8.7% rate to date. His hard-hit rate of 40% is down a little from last year, but it’s still better than his career mark. Statcast gives him an expected average of .282 and slugging of .527. Now, Statcast currently believes a lot of players should be slugging quite a bit higher than they are. Verdugo, though, rates as one of the league’s unluckiest players. His BABIP is an incredibly low .214, which is 110 points south of his career mark.
That all suggests there’s nothing actually wrong with Verdugo. He’s probably not particularly well equipped for the current environment, given that he offers only middling power, but he should be doing a whole lot better than this and things probably will pick up soon. I still think he’s a top-30 fantasy outfielder.
American League notes
- The stress reaction in Brandon Lowe’s back is expected to sideline him for at least a few weeks and could well turn into a season-long problem. That’s quite a blow to the Rays, but now we should get an extended chance to see what Vidal Brujan can do at second base. He certainly won’t duplicate Lowe’s power, but he should get on base at a decent clip and contribute with his legs. He’ll likely prove quite useful in shallow leagues if he can hold on to the job.
- The Mariners got so tired of waiting around for Jarred Kelenic to do something that they couldn’t even hold off until Kyle Lewis (knee) or Mitch Haniger (ankle) returned to send him down. It had to be done; there just wasn’t anything positive to be taken away from Kelenic’s performance offensively. I still think he’ll figure it out; he’s 22 and he’s spent less than half of a season in the high minors. It might still even happen this season, though I imagine the Mariners will keep him in Triple-A for quite a bit longer than they did after demoting him last year.
- There shouldn’t be any playing time questions for Lewis after he comes off the IL. The original plan likely was for him to spend the full 20 days in the minors rehabbing, but he might be moving up his timetable by opening up 8-for-25 with two homers and just two strikeouts in his first six games for Triple-A Tacoma. I’m still skeptical that Lewis will be an asset in mixed leagues this year, but he’s not a bad stash. It helps that Safeco, typically one of the league’s top pitcher’s park, isn’t looking so bad for hitters right now.
- If Adley Rutschman was going to begin the season in the majors anyway -- something GM Mike Elias indicated after Rutschman suffered a triceps injury this spring -- then now would seem to be about the time to promote him. He’s up to 17 games played since returning to action on Apr. 26, giving him about twice as many plate appearances (72) as most players got this spring. Rutschman has had a down week offensively in Triple-A, going 4-for-25 with two homers and four walks in his last seven games, but he’s still at .300/.417/.483 overall in the minors. So, it would seem to be time. After all, the Orioles were planning on carrying him to start the year if not for his injury, right?
- An 11th-round pick out of Arizona in 2021, Chase Silseth wasn’t supposed to be on the radar for 2022, but he earned a quick callup by posting a 1.73 ERA and a 37/7 K/BB ratio in 26 innings for Double-A Rocket City and he was quite impressive in his first major league start, pitching six scoreless innings against the A’s. Silseth throws 94-97 mph, and his changeup looks like it will play against both lefties and righties. I don’t imagine that it will be such smooth sailing for him all season long, but he needs to be taken seriously, and he can be streamed in shallow leagues with another start against the A’s coming up on Friday.
- Royce Lewis didn’t make it easy by homering and doubling Tuesday against the A’s, but he was sent down anyway with Carlos Correa set to come off the IL for the Twins. All the former No. 1 overall pick did was hit .308/.325/.564 in his 40 plate appearances for the club. Lewis’s only real exposure at positions other than shortstop came in the Arizona Fall League three years ago, when he played 12 games at third, five in center and four at second base. One imagines he’ll see more time at third and in the outfield now, and there’s a good chance he’ll return to the majors in a few weeks to start at one of those spots.
- Eli White being 8-for-8 in steals and regularly hitting leadoff for the Rangers certainly gives him some short-term value, but it’s not something that should last, mostly because White just isn’t very good. The 27-year-old is a flyball hitter without enough power to make it work, and he’s striking out 34% of the time. He’s currently batting .250/.357/.354, but Statcast, which has most players underperforming their expected stats this year, thinks White should be hitting .209 and slugging .283. The Rangers are very fond of him, but he should eventually return to a reserve role anyway.
- It’s time for the Royals to give Vinnie Pasquantino a chance at first base, especially now that Salvador Perez’s sprained thumb has opened up playing time at DH. The 24-year-old Pasquantino is hitting .240/.362/.512 in Triple-A. The average isn’t great, but it seems like he’s had some bad luck, considering that he’s striking out a mere 15.4% of the time. He hit .310/.405/.560 in 55 games in Double-A last year. Given that Kauffman Stadium is rather unkind to power hitters and the Royals aren’t great as far as generating runs and RBI, Pasquantino likely would fall short of being a quality option in mixed leagues upon getting the call. He deserves a shot, though.
National League notes
- It’s incredible how content the Nationals have been in their awfulness. Most teams would be doing something to try to change things up a bit. The Nationals, though, have made one roster move in the last two weeks, swapping out relievers (amazingly, the reliever they sent down, Andres Machado, had the bullpen’s best ERA at the time). They’ve used just 13 hitters all season, with the only roster moves coming because Dee Strange-Gordon was on the COVID IL (Lucius Fox filled in and then was sent down when Strange-Gordon returned). Five of the team’s 12 position players have sub-.600 OPSs, including the eminently replaceable Alcides Escobar and optionable outfielders Victor Robles and Lane Thomas, yet nothing has been done.
Sure, the Nationals knew it was going to be a tough season, but it’s not like they were entirely in tank mode; they signed Nelson Cruz and Cesar Hernandez over the winter. It didn’t seem like they were aiming for 100 losses. Now, though? Maybe it’s unavoidable, but it’d be nice if they brought up Luis Garcia and sent down Robles and showed some sign that they care.
- The unfortunate Jesus Luzardo forearm injury seemed to blow the door wide open for Max Meyer in Miami, but then Meyer gave up six runs for Triple-A Jacksonville last Thursday and eight runs on Tuesday, taking his ERA from 1.72 to 4.54 in a big hurry. He walked four and struck out just one in the latest start. Until Meyer turns it around, the Marlins could stick with Cody Poteet or give Edward Cabrera another shot. Cabrera, currently pitching in Triple-A, arrived late to camp and then missed some time with a biceps injury. He’s thrown 17 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA and a 23/11 K/BB ratio since returning.
- Kris Bryant (back) is expected to rejoin the Rockies’ lineup on Friday, crowding the team’s outfield. One stunner for the team early on has been the play of Yonathan Daza, who is hitting .382/.434/.441 in 76 plate appearances, even though none of his four barrels have gone for home runs. He’s struck out just six times this year. Daza isn’t going to keep this up, but since he’s the team’s best defensive outfielder, he just needs to be adequate offensively to deserve a starting spot. At this point, Charlie Blackmon probably ought to be the Rockies’ fourth outfielder. Still, since that’s not going to happen any time soon, I wouldn’t go dropping him in a mixed league. Daza, who, unfortunately, isn’t much of a steal threat in spite of excellent speed, probably won’t be worth using with his playing time likely to drop off some.
- People were raving about Seiya Suzuki’s plate discipline a month ago, but since April 20, he’s hitting .198/.244/.309 with no homers, 30 strikeouts and five walks in 86 plate appearances. He’s still not swinging and missing a ton, but he’s getting himself into a lot of deep counts that have ended badly for him. He’s also just 1-for-3 stealing bases on the season. I expect the power to come back and for him to put up solid numbers the rest of the way, but I don’t think he’ll be all that helpful in shallow leagues.
- New Cubs callup Christopher Morel’s first major league at-bat Tuesday produced a 111.3-mph home run. That exit velocity is higher than the max effort of about three-quarters of the league this year. It’s actually the same as the max for Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker and Jose Abreu, which is pretty good company. The 22-year-old Morel was off to a great start in Double-A (.306/.380/.565 in 122 PA) and his versatility is a nice plus, but he generally has had issues getting on base and it’s unlikely that he’s ready to stick in the majors. That’s not really the plan now anyway. Still, he should have earned himself a start or two before one of the Cubs’ six position players on the IL returns.
- MacKenzie Gore avoided a trip to the minors but not a move to the bullpen with Blake Snell rejoining the Padres. He did well in his first major league relief appearance Tuesday, throwing three scoreless innings against the Phillies after Mike Clevinger departed. It’d seem to be worth holding on to him in mixed leagues for now. He might even luck into the occasional save while working three or four innings at a time.
- The Braves are playing Travis Demeritte regularly in the outfield in Eddie Rosario’s absence, but maybe it’s Orlando Arcia who should be getting that opportunity instead. Arcia has some crazy exit velocity numbers in his limited action this year, hitting the ball an average of 94.7 mph. He has four barrels in just 27 events. All of that power is coming with more strikeouts, but the trade off would be worth it if he could keep it up. It’s a situation worth watching.
- Keston Hiura could have some short-term value in shallow leagues while Willy Adames is out with a high ankle sprain. Hiura hit three homers in his first five games back in Triple-A.
