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21. Jaren Hall, BYU
Player Stats: 2,583 Yards/Comp% = 64%/20-to-5 Ratio (10 games)
PFF Grades: 89.2 Overall/83.3 Passing/80.4 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 75% (27th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 30 ATT per game = 264 YPG/26-to-5 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 33 (28th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.8 (14th)
BTT-to-TWP: 21-to-7
Deep Passing: 90.2 Grade/61 ATT/ ATT% = 21%/Comp% = 41%
Rushing: 302 yards/3 TDs (10 games)
It’s hard to not be optimistic about BYU’s outlook for 2022, as 75% of their production returns from a team that ranked top-10 nationally in yards per play(6.7), points per drive (3.1), success rate (50%) and EPA/Play. Jaren Hall won the starting job out of camp and proceeded to emphatically stake his claim to it, with the dual-threat former baseball player showing off his ability to handle pressure and deliver accurate throws on the move. In addition to arm strength that belies his baseball background, his speed and ability to create in the open field is immediately apparent when watching his tape. Despite advanced speed and athleticism, Hall still does a great job keeping his eyes downfield and making plays with his arm when flushed. The Cougars’ signal caller threw for at least 280 yards in six of his last seven games while also pitching in with 302 rushing yards and three touchdowns. With a veteran offensive line returning four starters along with wideouts Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney, BYU is primed to surpass last year’s 264 passing yards and 33 points per game and should produce somewhere closer to the 43.5 points and 332 passing yards per game that BYU unleashed in 2020. Though those lofty heights will likely be impossible to recreate due to their schedule including five Power Five opponents this year while 2020 was as G5-heavy a schedule as BYU will ever see due to the pandemic. Still, the Cougars play a very palatable 69th rated schedule in the country and are expected to be favored in 10-of-12 games, enhancing Hall’s startability. An established QB2/3 who will enjoy a talent advantage in most of his games and pilots a proven offense, Hall is a buy for me at his current price, going off the board at QB27 with an ADP of 140 overall.
22. Jaxson Dart/Luke Altmyer, Ole Miss
Player Stats: 1,353 Yards/Comp% = 62%/9-to-5 Ratio (6 games)
PFF Grades: 72.2 Overall/73.6 Passing/56.1 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 63% (68th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 33 ATT per game/275 YPG/21-to-7 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 34 (24th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.3 (29th)
BTT-to-TWP: 9-to-9 = 4.3%-to-4.1%
Deep Passing: 63.3 Grade/28 ATT/ ATT% = 15%/Comp% = 36%
Rushing: 43 yards/2 TDs
Perhaps no quarterback in the nation lost more steam on their hype train than Jaxson Dart after his spring game showing where he completed just 11-of-30 passes for 166 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions to go with 16 carries for 66 yards on the ground. In his defense Dart was constantly under duress behind the second team line and got sacked six times during the contest. However he also missed multiple open receivers on overthrows on potential touchdowns, so his poor showing cannot be explained away so easily. It’s not like he was great downfield at USC either, posting just a 63.3 deep passing grade and a 36% completion rate. It’s still encouraging to see him running more after injuring his knee and only gaining 43 yards in all of 2021, a mark he surpassed in the Spring Game alone. While his 87.4 NFL passer rating leaves much to be desired, it’s important to remember that Dart was a true freshman last year with a bum knee. He was also a blue-chip recruit who ran for 1,000 yards as a senior and had the CFF community drooling over him as recently as March where he was going #49 overall. However after the spring Dart’s #117 ADP, a 68 spot free-fall. In fact I stopped his slide in the recent Champions League CFF Best Ball Draft when I selected him as QB37. That being said, I love Luke Altmyer as a hedge as I took him in The Program C2C league and again as Dart’s backup in best ball.
23. Clay Millen, Colorado State
Player Stats: N/A
PFF Grades: N/A
Offensive Returning Production: 41% (123rd)
2021 Team Passing Stats: ATT per game/YPG/Ratio (Nevada)
Team Points Per Game: 36 (17th) (Nevada)
Team Yards Per Pass: 7.9 (47th)
BTT-to-TWP: N/A
Deep Passing: N/A
Rushing: N/A
With HC Jay Norvell leaving Nevada for Colorado State, he brought along receivers Tory Horton and Melquan Stovall in addition to the borderline four-star recruit Millen who served as Carson Strong’s understudy last season and now has the keys to OC Matt Mumme’s air raid offense. Mumme’s aerial assault accounted for 44 passes (5th most nationally), 347 passing yards (6th) and 36 points per game (17th) last year and has plenty of weapons at Colorado State to make a seamless transition production-wise. Carson Strong was offered the keys to this system which would be built around him and designed to break records, however he chose to go pro instead. What is Strong’s loss is Millen’s gain, as the highly regarded recruit now gets to pilot one of the most successful iterations of the air raid offense. CSU draws Michigan and Wazzu as non-conference paycheck games but play a light MWC schedule that ranks 91st overall and dodges San Diego State. With Millen going off the board in the 13th round at QB33, he is a substantial value relative to where I have him ranked at QB23 in six-point passing leagues.
24. Frank Harris, UTSA
Player Stats: 3,176 Yards/Comp% = 66%/27-to-6 Ratio
PFF Grades: 86.2 Overall/80.3 Passing/75.2 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 82% (13th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 32 ATT per game/254 YPG/Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 37 (11th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.0 (44th)
BTT-to-TWP: 28-to-17 = 6.4%-to-3.5%
Deep Passing: 90.9 Grade/72 ATT/ ATT% = 18%/Comp% = 47%
Rushing: 566 yards/6 TDs
It was a season for the ages for second year HC Jeff Traylor as the Roadrunners dominated the C-USA en route to 12-wins and a conference championship. Their elite offensive unit that averaged 37 PPG (11th), 2.9 points per drive (9th) and a 47% passing success rate (17th) returns 82% of their production, essentially losing standout LT Spencer Burford and RB Sincere McCormick but retaining everyone else. Harris averaged 29 points per game in 6-point passing formats and is even more valuable in standard scoring due to his mobility which helps supplement his very capable passing acumen. He posted the 10th highest PFF passing grade without play action of all returning signal callers while also completing an exceptional 47% of his deep shots, which is a testament to his two all-conference worthy wideouts Jonathan Cephus and Zakhari Franklin. He doesn’t have the arm strength of his Power Five counterparts, but Harris is still an accurate passer that delivered an exceptional 91.6 passing grade from a clean pocket. With UTSA rostering an offensive line that returns 118 line starts from a unit that allowed a 3.4% sack rate (13th) in 2021, Harris should receive the best protection available in their conference. They should continue to roll over their C-USA opponents and will likely be favored in all of them except for their big showdown against UAB where they’re early 2-point projected dogs by CFB Winning Edge. Even though he’s slightly built, Harris is a dynamic player who plays for a Group of Five team that should bully their conference. His ADP has been remarkably consistent all offseason, hovering right at the 109 overall mark for four straight months. The market has been set, you know where you have to take him.
25. Anthony Richardson, Florida
Player Stats: 529 Yards/Comp% = 59%/6-to-5 Ratio
PFF Grades: 74.8 Overall/58.9 Passing/79.9 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 47% (110th)
2021 (Louisiana) Team Passing Stats: 29 ATT per game/219 YPG/22-to-4 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 31 (45th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 7.6 (60th)
BTT-to-TWP: 4-to-5 = 6.2%-to-6.5%
Deep Passing: 66.7 Grade/16 ATT/ ATT% = 25%/Comp% = 31%
Rushing: 401 yards/3 TDs - 7.9 YPC
Richardson’s prospects for 2022 may be the most hotly debated of the CFF offseason. His size, speed, arm strength and open field acceleration are all tantalizing. Former HC Dan Mullen is out and Billy Napier, former Louisiana-Lafayette head coach, brings in a system that was more well known for making CFF stars out of his running backs than his QBs, just check Levi Lewis the past four years. The Gators return 47% of their roster and is the 20th least experienced team in the nation with Justin Shorter, Trent Whittemore and Xzavier Henderson all returning, though they are being given very little respect in the drafts i’ve taken part in thus far. For his part, Richardson is very raw, having thrown just 63 passes with a 59% completion rate and a 58.9 PFF passing grade while starting just one game. Even when he was on the field, the play script was gimmicky with plenty of run fakes and play action, so there weren’t many clean pocket, neutral situations to analyze. He has a long-ish delivery with a lot of his passes being basic quick rhythm throws or manufactured touches. Though inexperienced, Richardson has enough tools that NFL Draftniks are already projecting him as a potential first round selection. For CFF purposes, his upside is pretty high, but we also have to bake in the downside of him being a more athletic version of Levi Lewis. He is going off the board as QB26 in CFF Site drafts with an ADP of 120, however Richardson has been going at 84 overall in recent drafts, showing that his hype machine is picking up.
26. Garrett Shrader, Syracuse
Player Stats: 1,445 Yards/Comp% = 53%/9-to-4 Ratio
PFF Grades: 73.9 Overall/54.4 Passing/87.3 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 81% (18th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 24 ATT per game/153YPG/10-to-6 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 25 (91st)
Team Yards Per Pass: 5.7 (123rd)
BTT-to-TWP: 9-to-12 = 3.6%-to-3.7%
Deep Passing: 68 Grade/41 ATT/ ATT% = 17%/Comp% = 22%
Rushing: 781 yards/14 TDs
Syracuse HC Dino Babers went from employing one of the most pass oriented offenses in 2016, throwing 44 passes (6th) for 321 yards per game back then before pivoting to their current ground based assault that only throws 24 times for 153 yards per game behind RB Sean Tucker and QB Garrett Shrader. It’s easy to understand why HC Babers was averse to airing it out with Shrader, as the Mississippi State transfer posted a lowly 54.4 PFF passing grade to go with 6.1 yards per pass and a 76.9 NFL Passer Rating. He wasn’t helped by a shaky wide receiver corps that plagued Shrader with a 10.2% drop rate, but Shrader simply wasn’t very consistent. Most of his production came during a three-game stretch against Wake Forest Florida State and Virginia Tech and his season high throwing was 236 yards with a season-long 9-to-4 ratio. That lack of passing acumen limits his startability and renders Shrader a shaky weekly option to project considering Syracuse plays at a talent deficit against most of their ACC schedule and is projected to be a favorite in just three games all year according to CFB Winning Edge. Shrader is a nice QB3 option in 4-point passing leagues, but fairly run-of-the-mill in formats that believe in equality for all touchdowns, be it passing, running or receiving. Despite his limitations, Shrader is going off the board as QB11 at pick #57. Don’t be the guy who takes the Syracuse signal caller as a QB1 in a 6-point passing TD league.
27. Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
Player Stats: 2,931 Yards/Comp% = 62%/25-to-6 Ratio (10 games)
PFF Grades: 75.5 Overall/73.9 Passing
Offensive Returning Production: 69% (49th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 39 ATT per game/321 YPG/30-to-10 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 34 (23rd)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.3 (29th)
BTT-to-TWP: 25-to-12 = 7.1%-to-3%
Deep Passing: 83 Grade/65 ATT/ ATT% = 20%/Comp% = 37%
Rushing: 57 yards/1 TD
The current favorite to be 2023 QB3 behind Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, Van Dyke took over for an injured D’Eriq King last year and performed well. He showed enough arm strength to make several sharp, small window throws while displaying a firm grasp of timing. He sets up nicely in the pocket and shows balanced footwork when delivering the football. Van Dyke’s ability to be accurate on the run allowed former OC Rhett Lashlee to move the pocket with him, though he did let some throws get away from him and his ball placement had bouts of inaccuracy which accounts for his middling 73.9 passing grade. New OC Josh Gattis and HC Mario Cristobal arrive and bring a more balanced approach than the former regime, with OC Gattis accounting for 31.5 passes per game the last two seasons to go with 250 passing yards, a far cry from the 39 passes (12th) and 321 passing yards the Canes posted in 2021. Van Dyke ended the season on a heater, throwing for at least 316 yards and three touchdowns in every one of his last six games. His favorite targets Charleston Rambo and Mike Harley Jr. are no longer in town and poor wide receiver play was a familiar refrain in spring camp. While Van Dyke has major upside from an NFL perspective that must be accounted for, the change in coaching staff and turnover among his receiver corps leave some doubts as to how high Van Dyke’s ceiling is from a CFF perspective. With an ADP of 116 he is going off the board as QB25, which is about right from a value standpoint, though Van Dyke possesses more upside than the other signal callers in this range, as his blistering six game stretch to end 2021 will attest.
28. Chevan Cordeiro, SJSU
2021 Player Stats: 2,793 Yards/Comp% = 55%/17-to-11 Ratio
PFF Grades: 80.6 Overall/82.2 Passing/60.3 Rushing
Offensive Returning Production: 65% (64th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 34 ATT per game/220 YPG/15-to-10 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 20 (118th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 6.6 (103rd)
BTT-to-TWP: 27-to-9 = 7.4%-to-2%
Deep Passing: 96 Grade/66 ATT/ ATT% = 19%/Comp% = 47%
Rushing: 342 yards/3 TDs
Hawaii was a difficult place to play in 2021, with the team undergoing a literal mutiny in an effort to oust former HC Todd Graham. In the mass exodus of players exiting the program, starting QB Chevan Cordeiro opted to transfer to San Jose State where HC Brian Brennan’s air-raid system awaits. The Spartans need Cordeiro’s infusion of arm talent badly after Nick Starkel got injured last year which exposed the utter lack of capable replacements behind him with the team averaging a paltry 20 points per game. There is much reason for optimism here, as the former Rainbow Warrior’s advanced numbers look great from last season despite the turmoil around him. He posted the fifth highest PFF passing grade under pressure among returnees and unleashed a 25-to-3 BTT-to-TWP ratio with a 47% completion rate on downfield throws. Either he didn’t like throwing to Hawaii’s Z-WRs, or he does not throw very well to the right side with just 222 of his 2,793 yards going to the right third of the field last year. He will have plenty of talent to throw to this year, as SJSU also brings in Justin Lockhart and Elijah Cooks from Nevada to lineup alongside established veterans Jermaine Braddock and Isaiah Hamilton. Cordeiro also has the ability to make plays with his legs, as he ran for 483 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games back in 2020. The only teams you have to sit him against are Auburn, Fresno State and San Diego State, but the other nine games are a go. He is being taken at #150 overall with a range of QB25-to-QB45. I like Cordeiro on the high side of that range and think he’s in play anywhere from QB25-QB30.
29. Devin Leary, NC State
Player Stats: 3,435 Yards/Comp% = 66%/35-to-5 Ratio
PFF Grades: 84.6 Overall/85.1 Passing
Offensive Returning Production: 73% (33rd)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 37 ATT per game/288 YPG/35-to-5 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 33 (28th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 7.8 (51st)
BTT-to-TWP: 31-to-9 = 6.8%-to-1.8%
Deep Passing: 93.8 Grade/65 ATT/ ATT% = 15%/Comp% = 49%
Rushing: 0 Yards/2 TDs
Last year Leary beat out Bailey Hockman for the starting job then proceeded to post 37 total touchdowns and 32 fantasy points per game while vaulting himself into NFL Draft consideration. Rightfully so, as the Wolfpack’s signal caller has enough juice on his throws to thread the needle over the middle or make the hole shot against zone coverage on the outside. He frequently puts the ball in his target’s catch radius on short to intermediate throws, but was plagued by 16 drops on his short, timing passes which hurt NC State’s ability to sustain drives at times, particularly against Miami. He’s mobile enough to buy time and can make outside of structure throws on the move, but only runs when necessary. A student of the game, Leary runs the NC State offense efficiently and with precision, especially when he has time to throw, displaying a deft touch on deep shots down the sideline. Leary boasts a 90.9 Overall Grade from clean pocket w/24-to-4 BTT-to-TWP rate in addition to owning the eighth highest PFF passing grade with no play action which is an excellent predictor of future success. The only loss in the wide receiver corps is Emeka Emezie, as favorite targets Devin Carter and Thayer Thomas come back along with starting TE Chris Toudle. The Wolfpack brings back an upperclassmen laden offensive line with 5 returning OL who played a combined 2,990 snaps last season, so repeating their rock solid 5.4% sack rate should not be an issue. NC State’s schedule is a dream as they play ECU/Charleston Southern, Texas Tech/Connecticut in their non-conference slate while dodging Miami and Pitt’s defenses in the ACC. Leary went off the board at QB30 in the most recent CFF Champions Series Best Ball draft hosted by Devy Watch’s Greg Brandt. His current ADP sits at 143 overall with a range of QB10-QB48. Leary is a bargain at current ADP and deserves to be drafted in the QB20-QB25 range given his passing volume and talent.
30. Collin Schlee, Kent State
2021 Player Stats: 238 Yards/Comp% = 71%/1-to-0 Ratio
PFF Grades: 83 overall/73.9 Passing/77.9 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 42% (122nd)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 29 ATT per game/245 YPG/21-to-6 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 33 (30th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.5 (20th)
Rushing: 127 yards/3 TDs - 6.3 YPC
Kent State HC Sean Lewis turned around a moribund program that averaged a paltry 12.8 points and 278 total yards per game the year before he arrived. Entering his fifth season at the helm of the Golden Flashes, their “Flash Fast” offense scored at least 31 points in eight of their last nine contests with Dustin Crum posting at least 26 fantasy points in those eight games. Now QB Collin Schlee takes the reins of the charged up KSU offense, and returns two standout wide receivers in Ja’Shaun Poke and Dante Cephas to go with all-purpose RB weapon Marquez Cooper. While there should be no problem for Schlee carving up the MAC, his off-conference slate is a gauntlet once again with paycheck games against Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia which means you will need other playable options under center for the first month of the season. The good news is the Flashes are expected to be favored in 7 of their other 9 games in a MAC conference that scored points like it was a video game in many of those midweek MACtion showdowns. Schlee has been groomed to take over for Crum now that he has departed, which has developed into a big spot in a fantasy friendly system. He is currently be drafted as QB21 at an ADP of 94 overall. His range of QB9-to-QB29 shows just how aggressively he is being drafted, though I feel like there are more sure-things on the board in the early 20’s.
31. Logan Bonner, Utah State
Player Stats: 3,628 Yards/Comp% = 61%/36-to-12 Ratio
PFF Grades: 80.7 Overall/79.4 Passing
Offensive Returning Production: 61% (73rd)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 36 ATT per game/303 YPG/41-to-15 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 33 (33rd)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.4 (24th)
BTT-to-TWP: 31-to-23 = 6.6%-to-4.5%
Deep Passing: 84.2 Grade/100 ATT/ ATT% = 23%/Comp% = 37%
Rushing:
Last year former Arkansas State HC Blake Anderson took over a listless Utah State program that went 1-5 and threw for 144 yards per game during the pandemic shortened 2020 season. He transferred in former Arkansas State starting QB Logan Bonner to run the offense and more than doubled their aerial production by averaging 303 passing yards per game, one of just 15 programs to clear the 300 YPG mark last year. The advanced data bodes well for success this season as well as the Aggies played fast and stretched the field vertically, averaging 76 plays per game (7th), 11.8 air yards per attempt (4th) and 36 passes per game (22nd) while ranking seventh in marginal passing explosiveness. A big game hunter, Bonner’s 100 throws of 20+ yards was the most in the nation last year with Utah State being one of just 11 programs to throw for over 4,000 yards. He will need to replace all-conference slot receiver Deven Thompkins, but Justin McGriff returns while former four-star Alabama wideout Xavier Williams (.9405 247 rating) and Maryland receiver Brian Cobbs transfer in to pick up the slack in Thompkins’ absence. USU’s offensive line is one of the most experienced in all of FBS, returning all five starters who logged 4,101 snaps alongside each other last season. They should improve upon an already respectable 6% sack rate last season. Utah State’s schedule is projectable, with Bonner hitting the bench against Alabama, BYU and the season finale against Boise State. However he should be a viable starting option the rest of the way, as they are a 2-point underdog at worst in their other nine games according to CFB Winning Edge’s projections. The Arkansas State transfer is being selected at an ADP of 150, right between Chevan Cordeiro and Clay Millen with a range between QB23 and QB48. I’m bullish on his prospects and like him a lot as a high-floor QB3 in 12 team leagues.
32. John Rhys-Plumlee, UCF
Player Stats: Yards/Comp%/Ratio
PFF Grades:
Offensive Returning Production: 70% (47th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 30 ATT per game/206 YPG/29-to-9 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 32 (38th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 6.9
BTT-to-TWP:
Deep Passing: Grade/ATT/ ATT% = /Comp% =
Rushing:
Plumlee is one of the more polarizing quarterbacks of the offseason relative to where he is being drafted. A former four-star dual-threat QB, he earned the Ole Miss starting job for eight games in 2019 completing 80-of-152 passes for a 53% completion rate, 910 yards, 6.0 YPA and a 4-to-3 ratio with a middling 60.4 PFF passing grade. While his passing numbers are abhorrent, Plumlee was electric on the ground carrying 154 times for 1,023 yards, 6.6 YPC and 12 touchdowns rushing. He promptly lost the starting quarterback gig in 2020 and switched to wideout for the last two seasons when HC Lane Kiffin took over and required a starting QB that could accurately throw a forward pass. With Plumlee transferring to UCF and now battling 2021 starter Mikey Keene for the QB job under 2nd year HC Gus Malzahn, the CFF intelligentsia is en mass proclaiming JRP their new lord and savior and the rightful heir to former Auburn QB Nick Marshall. Where he is being drafted is not accounting for his short leash and lack of passing ability that is a prerequisite for any effective starting quarterback. Plumlee is being taken as the QB18 at #86 overall, though he was just selected with the second pick in the fifth round in the last Champions Series Best Ball draft. In six-point passing formats, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze while in four-point passing leagues he is being drastically overvalued. Plumlee is a hard stay away for me this year.
33. Phil Jurkovec, BC
2020 Player Stats: 2,558 Yards/Comp% = 61%/17-to-5 Ratio
PFF Grades: 80.6 Overall/71.9 Passing/78.4 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 51% (103rd)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 25 ATT per game/185 YPG/13-to-11 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 25 (93rd)
Team Yards Per Pass: 7.3 (73rd)
BTT-to-TWP: 36-to-24 L2Y
Deep Passing: 92.2 Grade/33 ATT/ ATT% = 34%/Comp% = 45%
2020 Rushing: 322 yards/5 TDs
A ballyhooed former five-star prospect from the 2018 class, Jurkovec spent his first two seasons at Notre Dame where he waited anxiously behind Ian Book for an opportunity that would never come with Jurkovec transferring to Boston College after Book announced he would return for the 2020 season. After a promising 2020 where he threw for 256 YPG and accumulated 25 fantasy points per game, the Gibsonia, PA product suffered a serious hand injury in Week 2 against UMass that derailed his season and caused BC to shift their offense from throwing 36 passes per game in 2020 (18th) to just 25 passes per contest in 2021 (106th). Regarding his passing acumen, Jurkovec has a tight overhand delivery that causes him to come up short on some throws when pressed. His ball placement is inconsistent and sometimes he locks onto his scripted read when a defender is in the area and throws the ball anyway. That being said he is capable of making high degree of difficulty throws downfield and on fade passes. Jurkovec is also a sturdy presence in the pocket with the strength to shake off tacklers and extend plays. With the hand injury amounting to a mulligan for Jurkovec last year, All-ACC returnees WR Zay Flowers and RB Pat Garwo III are expected to help guide BC to a big offensive season. If there’s an issue holding the Eagles back it’s that outside of all-conference guard Christian Mahogany, Boston College is very inexperienced at the other four offensive line positions. That’s vital since Jurkovec was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks in 2020 (13th most in FBS) and posted a subpar 57.6 PFF passing grade in such situations. If he is going to eclipse the 30 touchdown barrier, Jurkovec will need to be upright. He will also be dealing with a new offensive coordinator in John McNulty who was the tight ends coach at Notre Dame for the past two seasons and last called plays for Rutgers in 2018-19. BC goes three-for-four in their non-conference schedule, as Rutgers, Maine and Connecticut are all great matchups while you will likely want to bench him against Notre Dame. The Eagles are currently favored in just two of their eight conference games, Syracuse and Duke, though Wake Forest and Louisville are perfect for fantasy purposes. He currently sits at an ADP of #161 overall with a wide range of QB16-to-QB51.
34. Seth Henigan, Memphis
Player Stats: 3,322 Yards/Comp% = 60%/25-to-8 Ratio
PFF Grades: 68.8 Overall/70.1 Passing
Offensive Returning Production: 71% (46th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 37 ATT per game/299 YPG/26-to-11 Ratio
Points Per Game: 30 (52nd)
Yards Per Pass: 8.1 (36th)
BTT-to-TWP: 21-to-19
Deep Passing: 84.6 Grade/64 ATT/ ATT% = 16%/Comp% = 36%
Rushing:
The Memphis coaching position has remained stable for the last decade, with each successive hiring from Justin Fuente to Mike Norvell to current HC Ryan Silverfield being an internal candidate. Over the past two years since he came aboard, HC Silverfield has shown a willingness to throw more than his predecessor Norvell, who averaged 30 passes per game in his final season with the Tigers. Conversely Memphis threw the ball 39 times per game (15th most nationally) in 2020 for 308 YPG (17th), in addition to 37 throws (17th) and 299 yards (16th) per game last year. There were some questions about the transition from longtime starter Brady White to now entrenched starter Seth Henigan, but the newcomer quelled doubts by leading the team to top-25 finishes in marginal explosiveness (23rd), ISO/PPP (24th) and passing explosiveness (24th). He averaged a strong 8.4 YPA while throwing 40+ passes with multiple TDs in five of his last six games as the coaching staff gained trust in him. The Tigers ran a brisk 72 plays per game and bring back 71% of their previous year’s production while returning five linemen who started at least eight games each. Henigan will have to contend with losing WR Calvin Austin and TE Sean Dykes to the NFL, but they do get back WRs Javon Ivory and Eddie Lewis who each played over 500 snaps last year while transferring in former four-star deep threat wideout from Iowa State Joe Scates who has averaged 19 YPC on his 16 receptions for the Cyclones. Schedule-wise Memphis is in great shape ranking 81st overall. They face off against Mississippi State opening week, but then get to play Arkansas State, North Texas and North Alabama while dodging Cincinnati in their AAC conference slate. Henigan’s ADP is almost laughable at 221 overall with a range of QB34-to-UDFA. I took him in the 15th round of the recent 6-point Passing TD Summa Cum Laude Mock Draft, though he’s been hovering around the 12th-13th in recent best ball drafts i’ve done. I think Henigan is a steal in six-point passing formats at his current price as he is another year more experienced and is locked into a high passing volume.
35. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Player Stats: 3,860 Yards/Comp% = 69%/26-to-11 Ratio
PFF Grades: 90.8 Overall/88.8 Passing/77.5 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 81% (16th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 38 ATT per game/305 YPG/27-to-12 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 29 (56th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.1 (37th)
BTT-to-TWP: 27-to-17 = 5.4%-to-3.1%
Deep Passing: 96.3 Grade/60 ATT/ ATT% = 13%/Comp% = 47%
Rushing: 81 yards/2 TDs
Baby Tua might be the most disrespected quarterback in the country this season relative to his upside. Under head coach Mike Locksley, the Terrapins have transformed into a fast-paced (72 plays per game, 32nd), high-flying aerial assault that throws 38 passes (16th) for 305 yards per game (13th) despite playing in methodical Big Ten. Their 49% passing success rate, 69% completion rate and 6.2% marginal efficiency all ranked top-10 in the country while Tagovailoa threw for the 10th most passing yards nationally and posted an exceptional 90.8 PFF offensive grade. His 96.3 Deep Passing grade slots in at sixth nationally to go with a scorching 24-to-4 BTT-to-TWP mark on downfield tosses. Maryland returns a stout offensive line with six players coming back that logged an astounding 4,600 snaps among them and allowed a 22% pressure rate last season that ranked seventh best in FBS. They also bring back surefire NFL Draft pick wideouts Dontay Demus Jr. and Rakim Jarrett while adding Florida four-star transfer Jacob Copeland, so Tagovailoa is loaded with receiving weapons. Their non-conference schedule is delicious, opening the first three weeks against Buffalo, Charlotte and SMU. They do draw Wisconsin out of the West but also get Northwestern to balance it off. Despite playing in the dreaded B10 East, the only non-starts are Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, with 8 other games that are very attractive. He is currently going off the board at #216 overall and QB51(!). That’s absolutely outrageous value for Tagovailoa who should be going in the QB30-35 range, especially in passing oriented formats.
36. Adrian Martinez, Kansas State
Player Stats: 2,861 Yards/Comp% 62%/14-to-10 Ratio
PFF Grades: 76.8 Overall/70.4 Passing/75.2 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 66% (61st)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 24 ATT per game/200 YPG/14-to-7 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 28 (76th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.3 (29th)
BTT-to-TWP: 15-to-14 = 4.7%-to-3.7%
Deep Passing: 91.9 Grade/61 ATT/ ATT% = 20%/Comp% = 48%
Rushing: 525 yards/13 TDs
A four-year starter for the Cornhuskers who is taking full advantage of his extra season of eligibility, Martinez is a known CFF commodity if there ever was such a thing. 2021 was a disappointing season where Nebraska dropped eight of their nine losses by one score or less. Martinez ran for 13 touchdowns, fourth-most in the country, but his 14-to-10 ratio left much to be desired and led to Martinez transferring to Kansas State for his final season of eligibility. Scheme-wise, Kansas State’s RPO-centric offense should be a fit for Martinez’ dual-threat style, as he utilized play action on 43% of his snaps last year, 20th most in the country, grading out at an 89.5 overall according to PFF College. Conversely he sported just a 55.5 passing grade in non-play action situations, so the writing was on the wall when former Pitt OC Mark Whipple brought in his precision passing attack that Martinez would no longer be a fit at Nebraska. The Wildcats threw just 24 passes per game (117th) while averaging 200 yards per game last year, which is right on brand from 2020 where they threw 25 times for 185 yards on average. My question is how much better, if at all, is AMart than five-year starter and seventh-round NFL Draft pick Skylar Thompson? Clearly his running chops are better than Thompson, who gained 42 yards combined rushing the past two years. But how much more upside does this offense have after scoring 27.5 PPG last year (74th) and ranking dead last in the country in plays per game with 58? All-purpose mighty mouse RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Malik Knowles and LT Cooper Beebe are all-conference returnees, but they must rebuild the entire interior of the O-Line. It’s tough to project Martinez will produce much value outside of 4-point passing TD leagues with 1-point per 40-yard scoring systems that really inflate running quarterbacks. He is being selected at #104 overall which is a drop from his February ADP of #80. Martinez is being selected at QB22 which is a much higher price than I’m willing to pay.
37. Dequan Finn, Toledo
Player Stats: 2,074 Yards/Comp% = 58%/18-to-2 Ratio
PFF Grades: 72.4 Overall/64.1 Passing/ 76.9 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 55% (88th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 30 ATT per game/237 YPG/22-to-3 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 33 (25th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 7.9 (47th)
BTT-to-TWP: 12-to-11 = 4.3%-to-3.4%
Deep Passing: 71 Grade/50 ATT/ ATT% = 20%/Comp% = 28%
Rushing: 502 yards/9 TDs
Heading into the 2021 season Finn was competing with Carter Bradley for the starting job, with Finn winning the job outright early in the season. While Toledo was potent enough to score 33 points per game, their offense was much more explosive than it was efficient. They ranked first in rushing marginal explosiveness and 14th in explosive passing plays, but 113th with a 35% passing success rate. Much of that inconsistency stems from Finn’s throwing limitations, as his long, baseball-style throwing motion has a lot of moving parts to it which is compounded by his tendency to not set his feet on quick throws. His 18-to-2 TD/INT ratio is a commendable mark that is brought down a bit when you factor in his 12-to-11 BTT-to-TWP ratio and 64.1 passing grade. Fortunately for Finn, he is an elusive runner who forced 17 missed tackles in 62 rushes and racked up 502 yards with nine touchdowns in the process. Toledo lost Georgia transfer and second-half standout Matt Landers who was devastating down the stretch. They will now rely upon WRs Devin Maddox and Jerjuan Newton to make plays while Micah Kelly and Maryland transfer Peny Boone split carries behind an offensive line that starts four seniors. Finn doesn’t have the passing ceiling of several players ahead of him, with his touchdown potential capped to around 30 combined TDs. He is being selected as QB24 at an overall ADP of 114, ahead of Van Dyke, Clayton Tune and Anthony Richardson, which is absurd. Finn is being drastically overvalued in 6-point passing TD formats and should be left to 4-point passing leagues only.
38. Casey Thompson, Nebraska
Player Stats: 2,113 Yards/Comp% - 63%/24-to-9 Ratio
PFF Grades: 78.3 Overall/76 Passing/68.4 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 54% (97th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 29 ATT per game/266 YPG/14-to-11 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 28 (71st)
Team Yards Per Pass: 9.3 (6th)
BTT-to-TWP: 15-to-12 = 5.3%-to-3.8%
Deep Passing: 79.3 Grade/43 ATT/ ATT% = 16%/Comp% = 33%
Rushing: 157 yards/4 TDs
Nebraska’s inability to win one-score games was chronicled concisely in the Taylor Martinez writeup and doesn’t need to be rehashed again. However their offense produced a very respectable 447 total yards per game (22nd) on 6.5 yards per play (18th) despite scoring a modest 28 points per game (71st). As their 2.3 points per drive (57th) average shows, Nebraska was able to move the ball, but had trouble executing in the red zone. As a result, HC Scott Frost brought in former Pitt OC Mark Whipple who coaxed a monster season out of Kenny Pickett last year. Transfer QB Casey Thompson was the starter for Texas last year and performed admirably, earning a 78.3 offensive grade from PFF College while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt steering a Longhorns offense that put up 35 points per game. Top wideout Samori Toure’ and TE Austin Allen graduated with high four-star transfer WR Trey Palmer and WR Omar Manning will share the barrage of targets Thompson is going to uncork in OC Whipple’s offense that produced 39 pass attempts per game last year (11th). NU returns an experienced line with three starters, however they allowed a troubling 40% pressure rate last year which ranked third-worst in the country. To make matters worse, opposing teams only blitzed 18% of the time, fourth least in FBS, so defenses were getting heavy pressure with just four rushers. Ideally Thompson is running Whipple’s quick-read system and getting the ball out which will help the offensive line as opposed to having to hold for an extra beat in an RPO focused system. CFB Winning Edge really likes Nebraska’s chances for a bounceback with Nebraska only listed as underdogs in three games, and even then the biggest spread is 7.5 points to Michigan. They draw Indiana and Rutgers out of the East to go with North Dakota, Georgia Southern and Oklahoma in the non-conference slate. Overall it’s a pretty favorable layout from a fantasy perspective, with their schedule carrying an overall strength of 47th. Thompson is being drafted as the 201st player overall and QB47, but his ADP has ticked up in recent drafts and averaged 184th in May with a range of 33-to-55th.
39. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Player Stats: 2,668 Yards/Comp% = 67%/21-to-4 Ratio
PFF Grades: 87 Overall/79.5 Passing/79.7 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 71% (44th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 24 ATT per game/213 YPG/22-to-5 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 31 (48th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.9 (9th)
BTT-to-TWP: 18-to-9 = 5.7%-to-2.4%
Deep Passing: 96.9 Grade/40 ATT/ ATT% = 14%/Comp% = 58%
Rushing: 664 yards/6 TDs
Jefferson took over starting duties for the Razorbacks following Feleipe Franks’ departure, stepping right in to average 27 points per game and an exemplary 87.0 offensive grade from PFF College. The issue with Arkansas is OC Kendall Briles dialed up just 24 passes per game last year to go with an average target depth of just 9.0 yards (95th). Jefferson only threw 40 passes downfield all season but completed a superb 58% of them with a 16-to-0 BTT-to-TWP ratio on deep shots. An excellent runner, 33% of Jefferson’s rushes went for 10 or more yards while averaging 5.30 yards after contact as his stocky 6’3/245 pound frame is hard to bring down when he gets loose. First-round wideout Treylon Burks was a huge factor in his downfield success. Arkansas will try to replace his production with five-star Oklahoma transfer Jadon Haselwood, though he has been used as a possession receiver thus far averaging 9.9 ADOT and 10.2 YPC last season. Ketron Jackson has gotten a lot of hype and could be ready to take a step this year while former Georgia recruit Matt Landers transfers in by way of Toledo. Their offensive line returns four starters with 119 games of collective starting experience among them. As is often the case however, Arkansas has the single toughest schedule in the country playing in the SEC West. In their non-conference games, they have to face Cincinnati, BYU and Liberty to go with FCS Missouri State. The only saving grace is they draw South Carolina and Missouri out of the East, leaving roughly seven games where you can reasonably expect to start him. He is being drafted at #132 overall, peaking at #114 in March before shooting up to #159 in May. Jefferson derives much of his value from his legs. With a draft range of QB15-QB40 he is much more palatable in four-point passing TD formats, but his tough schedule limits his startability in all leagues which is why I have him ranked on the low end of his current valuation
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40. Will Levis, Kentucky
Player Stats: 2,826 Yards/Comp% = 66%/24-to-13 Ratio
PFF Grades: 90.6 Overall/82.3 Passing/86.3 Running
Offensive Returning Production: 60% (79th)
2021 Team Passing Stats: 28 ATT per game/224 YPG/24-to-13 Ratio
Team Points Per Game: 32 (35th)
Team Yards Per Pass: 8.0 (44th)
BTT-to-TWP: 15-to-11 = 4.1%-to-2.6%
Deep Passing: 90.7 Grade/55 ATT/ ATT% = 16%/Comp% = 44%
Rushing: 376 yards/9 TDs
Watching Levis you can see why NFL Draftniks are buzzing about his first-round potential. He’s physically huge at 6’4/235 but a very fluid runner for his size, bowling would be defenders over in the open field. Levis has a short, smooth release that allows him to get the ball out quickly while still keeping a tight spiral. Though he only throws downfield a modest 16% of the time, Levis connected on 44% of his deep shots (32nd in nation) and is accurate to all levels of the field. He was extremely effective when using play action, which they ran 35% of the time, with his 91.6 grade ranking sixth in the country. The former Nittany Lion can clearly make a 15-yard field side throw on a line, but he left some balls hanging over the middle at inopportune times that led to interceptions as well. While Kentucky was great at cashing in red zone opportunities with a 72% red zone touchdown rate, their offense also ranked in the bottom-25 in Iso/PPP and Marginal Explosiveness, and were a ghastly -12 in turnover margin, fifth worst in the nation. Their offense chugs along at a 66 play per game pace that ranks 88th in FBS as their suffocating defense ranked top-10 in least drives and plays faced per game. HC Mark Stoops has built this offense to grind down opponents as their 224 passing yards per game average will attest. As such, we’re likely not going to see Levis break the 3,000 passing yards threshold, however a 35 touchdown campaign with 500 rushing yards is a very realistic outcome, and basically what he did last season when he averaged a solid 27 fantasy PPF. With his slow-paced offensive system holding down Levis’ ceiling, he is going off the board at an average of pick #187 and QB41 overall. I’m right in line with the ADP on Levis from a CFF perspective.
