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Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Joshua Jacobs

Joshua Jacobs

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TIER 5

21. Justice Hill (Age 21)- Oklahoma State – Baltimore Ravens (Pick No. 113)

Profile: Hill (5’10/198) would likely be talked about among the top running backs in this class if he didn’t suffer a serious rib injury In 2018 and play just 10 games at less than 100 percent. As a freshman at Oklahoma State he rushed for 1,142 yards and six touchdowns on just 206 carries (5.5 yards per carry). As a sophomore, he was trusted as their bell cow running back and recorded 1,467 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 190 yards on 31 receptions through the air. He has strong pass-catching chops and dropped zero percent of his targets as a senior.

Hill is an exciting prospect from an athleticism standpoint after he produced an 88th percentile SPARQ athletic composite score and 80th percentile speed score at the NFL Scouting Combine. He didn’t run the 3-cone or shuttle but sprinted the 40-yard dash in 4.40 seconds.

Fantasy Outlook: Prior to the draft I notedHill has a lot of potential and may wind up being a steal in the second round of most rookie drafts if given the opportunity in the NFL. His pass-catching and proven ability to handle a sizable workload makes him a nice sleeper for a Kamara-lite role in the NFL with 12-15 touches a game.”

The Kamara reference was totally coincidental and he now happens to be united with Mark Ingram. The issue with a potential Ingram-Kamara-lite dynamic in Baltimore is Lamar Jackson’s infrequent targets to running backs. After Jackson took over in Week 11, the Ravens only targeted running backs on 15 percent of passing attempts, tied for third fewest in that span. Not to mention that 15 percent is of a significantly lower volume of pass attempts due to their run-heavy approach.

Ingram isn’t a lock to be on the roster in 2020 though as he only has $500,000 guaranteed after 2019. If Hill flashes in 2019 Ingram could very well be cut to avoid the rest of his $4M 2020 salary.

22. Jalen Hurd (Age 23) – Baylor – San Francisco 49ers (Pick No. 67)

Pre-Draft: Best of the Rest

Profile: Hurd (6‘5/226) entered college as a running back and actually ran ahead of Alvin Kamara at Tennessee. He transferred to Baylor for his final collegiate season and posted 946 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 69 receptions.

His overall 40-yard dash time of 4.69 is poor but when adjusting for his size it gives him 65th percentile speed score. He is athletic and probably could have played running back in the NFL if he decided to do so.

Fantasy Outlook: The San Francisco 49ers have talked up Hurd as an all-around weapon they can use in both the running and passing game. Hurd’s another player I wasn’t anticipating to be selected prior to Round 4 and ended up in Round 3. This shows the 49ers believe in his ability and upside as a relatively raw player who recently changed positions.

If he can earn some snaps, he’ll be tethered to one of the better quarterbacks in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. That alone gives him ample upside and makes him worth a late 2nd or early 3rd round selection in rookie drafts.

23. Miles Boykin (Age 22) – Notre Dame – Baltimore Ravens (Pick No. 93)

Profile: Boykin (6’4/220) is a tough prospect to crack with hardly any college production but off-the-charts athleticism. He didn’t post a single season with more than 1,000 yards receiving and actually only totaled 1,201 yards in his entire collegiate career.

He flashed elite athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine with a 97th percentile speed score after busting off a 4.42-second 40-yard dash. Unlike D.K. Metcalf, Boykin also showed some agility and ran the 3-cone drill in a respectable 6.77-seconds.

What bothers me is how a player this athletic wasn’t able to produce at the collegiate level. You can write off some of it due to poor quarterback play, especially in 2017 and part of 2018 with inaccurate quarterback Brandon Wimbush at the helm. The issue is he actually had one of his best games of the year in 2018 (6-119-0 against Ball State) with Wimbush as the starter.

Fantasy Outlook: Boykin probably has the highest potential among players at this point in dynasty drafts due to his insane athletic ability. He also carries an incredibly low floor as a relatively raw prospect that only produced in one year of college and being tethered to a low-volume passing offense. He and Marquise Brown will both help the Ravens offense significantly in real life with their top-end athleticism but may not make a big impact in fantasy unless Lamar Jackson improves as a passer and the Ravens decide to pass more frequently. I’m comfortable taking the plunge on a player with Boykins’ upside towards the end of the second round.

24. Irv Smith (Age 20)- Alabama – Minnesota Vikings (Pick No. 50)

Pre-Draft Rank: No. 22

Profile: Smith (6’2/242) is an intriguing prospect out of Alabama who was fairly productive with 707 yards and eight touchdowns on 44 receptions (16.1 yards per reception) in 2018.

His athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine was encouraging with a 4.63-second 40-yard dash and 69th percentile speed score.

He also finished second in the class in yards per route run (2.56) among tight ends in this draft class.

NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein compared Smith to NFL TE Ben Watson, a fair comparison that encapsulates Smith’s potential outlook.

Fantasy Outlook: Minnesota is a great landing spot for Smith who will be able to play behind Kyle Rudolph for a season. Tight Ends generally take a bit longer than other positions to develop so a year of low usage and development isn’t a bad thing for Smith. Rudolph’s contract is up at the end of this season and he was the subject of numerous trade rumors so Smith’s name could be called even sooner than we think. Regardless, Smith is a low-risk, high-upside tight end that can make an impact on a dynasty roster in 2020 and potentially even sooner.

25. Damien Harris (Age 22) – Alabama – New England Patriots (Pick No. 87)

Pre-Draft Rank: No. 19

Profile: Harris (5’10/216) was the second running back from Alabama off the board with Josh Jacobs getting selected in the 1st round. Harris was the more productive of the two, racking up 3,070 rushing yards on 477 carries (6.4 yards per carry) in his career at Bama. Despite the production, Jacobs has more projectable NFL traits and offers a lot more upside.

Harris showed he’s a capable pass-catcher with 52 receptions for 407 yards in four seasons. He was a tough player to judge on film because he was oftentimes running through gaping holes due to Alabama’s strong offensive line play. He was still able to add yards due to his own ability, but not as much as I would like to see.

Fantasy Outlook: My pre-draft analysis still rings true: “Harris is capable of taking over three-down work in the NFL but doesn’t do anything overly well to suggest that he could win the starting job away from a current veteran. I view him as a low-upside, high-floor backup who could luck his way into a starting role after an injury.”

On New England, Harris will be a capable backup but shouldn’t see more than 3-5 touches in a game without an injury to either James White or Sony Michel. The Patriots drafting Harris likely means Rex Burkhead will be a roster casualty. Harris has a lot of upside if an injury occurs but is otherwise a RB4 in fantasy leagues.

26. Jace Sternberger (Age 22) – Texas A&M - Green Bay Packers (Pick No. 75)

Pre-Draft Rank: N/A

Profile: Sternberger (6’4/251) declared for the draft after turning in a productive redshirt junior season at Texas A&M. He racked up 832 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 48 receptions (17.3 YPR) after catching just one pass in two seasons at Kansas, his former school.

He turned in average athletic testing numbers with a 57th percentile size adjusted speed score and 62nd percentile 20-yard shuttle.

Fantasy Outlook: Sternberger isn’t overly exciting as a prospect as a one-year producer and posting extremely average athleticism. His landing spot in Green Bay is highly interesting as Jimmy Graham doesn’t have much left in the tank and Aaron Rodgers’ retirement isn’t within the foreseeable future. He’ll likely take a season or two to produce but could be a TE1 once he hits his stride.

27. Bryce Love (Age 21)- Stanford – Washington Redskins (Pick No. 112)

Pre-Draft Rank: No. 26

Profile: Love (5’9/200) was uber productive in college, especially during the 2017 season. He rattled off 2,118 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on just 263 carries (8.1 yards per carry).

His senior season caused his draft stock to plummet after only rushing for 4.5 yards per carry to the tune of 739 yards and six touchdowns. A lot of his inefficiencies were due to a variety of lingering injuries.

He then suffered a torn ACL in Stanford’s final game and is currently recovering from that. He wasn’t able to perform athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Fantasy Outlook: Love landing with the Redskins was a bit disappointing, but his fourth-round selection was not. He was projected to be a late Day 3 player rather than an early Day 3 selection. The Redskins decision to take Love either reflects uncertainty with Derrius Guice’s recovery or them viewing Love as a low-risk, high-upside back given the price tag. Either way, he is worth a late flier in dynasty rookie drafts.

28. Kahale Warring (Age 22) – San Diego State – Houston Texans (Pick No. 86)

Pre-Draft Rank: No. 26

Profile: Warring (6’5/252) has been a draftnik darling the past few months and his stock has continued to rise. He wasn’t very productive in three seasons at San Diego State (51-637-8) but still managed to lead the program in receptions his senior season (31). That speaks more to the type of offense San Diego State had than Warring’s actual ability in my mind.

He tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine posting a 4.66 40-yard dash, 36.5-inch vertical jump, and 10.17 broad jump which helped him land in the 79th percentile of SPARQ composite scores and an 81st percentile speed score.

Warring didn’t even start playing football until 2013 so how fast he ascended is really promising for many evaluators. He can block well which will help him see snaps earlier in his career and is an improving pass-catcher.

Fantasy Outlook: Warring going to the Texans is a good landing spot where he has little competition. Ryan Griffin and Darren Fells won’t stand in his way too long if he can continue to build on his skill set. As a player whose upward trajectory has been off the charts since getting a late start to football, Warring has more upside than most believe in the third round of rookie drafts.

29. Dwayne Haskins (Age 21) – Ohio State – Washington Redskins (Pick No. 15)

Pre-Draft Rank: No. 27

Profile: Haskins is some analysts’ top quarterback in this draft and there’s a legitimate argument to be made. Contrary to Stephen A’s thoughts on Haskins being primarily a running quarterback, Haskins rushed for just 194 yards on 103 carries (1.9 yards per carry) during his career at Ohio State as well as a 5.04-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Haskins is good at maneuvering the pocket and completed a highly efficient 70 percent of his passes in 2018. He benefitted from a number of screens and jet sweeps to players like Parris Campbell but was still accurate otherwise and Pro Football Focus gave noted he had the 5th best adjusted completion percentage in this quarterback class. As a redshirt sophomore, he threw for 4,831 yards and 50 touchdowns while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and throwing just eight interceptions.

Fantasy Outlook: If you are in 2QB or Superflex league Haskins should rightfully be selected somewhere towards the middle of the first round. In standard one quarterback leagues I don’t see a ton of short-term upside to Haskins’ game, especially when considering the current state of the Redskins.

Their offensive line is poor and their receiving corps is expected to start a combination of Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, and Terry McLaurin. If Haskins is thrown into the fire at some point this season it’s unlikely he’s successful or even startable in fantasy leagues. If your dynasty roster is in need of QB depth he isn’t a bad option in the 3rd round in hopes he develops in 2020 and beyond.

30. Kelvin Harmon (Age 22) – North Carolina State – (Pick No. 206)

Pre-Draft Rank: No. 20

Profile: Harmon (6’2/221) is a big bodied outside wide receiver who produced at NC State. He went over 1,000 yards in both 2017 and 2018, catching a combined 150 passes.

Harmon struggled at the NFL Scouting Combine with a 4.60 40-yard dash, 32.5-inch vertical jump, and 7.15-second 3-cone drill. His athleticism was pretty disappointing with an 18th percentile SPARQ athletic composite score but he did have a 69th percentile speed score when adjusting for size.

A lot of his production may be explained by consistently above average quarterback play from NFL Draft prospect Ryan Finley. I’m definitely lower than consensus on Harmon, but don’t really see a ton of upside to him as a fantasy player.

NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein compared him to Mohamed Sanu, a realistic projection for Harmon.

Fantasy Outlook: Prior to the draft I noted: “Like Sanu, Harmon can be mildly successful on a good offense as a possession WR2. He’ll likely never put up a WR1 or even WR2 season but may provide weeks he can act as a back-end WR3.”

Harmon doesn’t have the draft capital so he could flame out quickly but has minor competition on the Redskins. They drafted Ohio State WR Terry McLaurin and both Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson remain with the team. Neither should stop him from making the roster and carving out a role if he shows his talent.

Best of the Rest

Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison, Green Bay Packers RB Dexter Williams, Cincinnati Bengals RB Trayveon Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars TE Josh Oliver, Seattle Seahawks WR Gary Jennings JR.