In Part 1 of this two-part series, I discussed the importance of drafting for weekly upside in best ball tournaments with single-week playoff structures... like Underdog’s Best Ball Mania. I’ve already covered running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. This article will be focused on quarterback strategy.
Quarterback ADP Efficiency
How we approach quarterbacks in tournament best ball requires us to interpret a multi-year trend at the position: quarterback ADP has gotten much more efficient. Rich Hribar has already done the heavy lifting here:
Over the last two seasons, we’ve seen several mobile quarterbacks come into their own; we’ve also seen the rise of offenses built around aggressive, high-volume passing offenses. This has changed the fantasy landscape, making quarterback more predictable... or as Rich notes as a possibility... we’ve gotten really lucky.
It’s probably a mix of both. For example, Tom Brady was able to deliver on a ninth-round ADP in 2021 by captaining an aggressively pass-heavy offense. I know it’s Tom Brady and everything, but we were still talking about a 44-year-old pure pocket passer selected with a single-digit pick, despite years of evidence that predicting passing efficiency is very difficult. Brady’s been defying that trend for most of his 22-year career, of course. And drafters are betting on him to continue doing so in 2022.
Aaron Rodgers also rewarded 8th-9th round drafters with a repeat MVP season. 9th-10th round Drafters were also correct about Matthew Stafford taking his game to a new level and about Joe Burrow emerging as a star. Unfortunately, we’re unlikely to be quite this on point about 2022’s most efficient pocket quarterbacks.
But clearly, the quarterback landscape is not what it once was. Suppose you make the 470-team Best Ball Mania final or DraftKings’ 969-team Millionaire final without a high-end quarterback. In Week 17, you will be facing off against dozens of teams with players like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray—players who can pair rushing and passing production in ways that tilt the entire slate. And beyond the fantasy elites, you’ll also be fading Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Trey Lance, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford—all of whom are going in the first nine rounds. Of course, a few of these quarterbacks probably won’t be healthy or effective by Week 17, but still, fading them all is a hell of a parlay.
On the other hand, chasing quarterback upside comes with a significant opportunity cost. Rounds 3-5 have historically been strong rounds for wide receivers or an elite tight end. Rounds 6-9 have been the last call for difference-making receiver weeks and not a bad place to mix in tight end and running back selections. Meanwhile, many quarterbacks are available in the final rounds of drafts, making it tempting to wait on quarterback, and opt for a 3QB build.
But where have quarterback spike weeks been available in Underdog drafts?
(As discussed in Part 1, the spike week trends reflect the frequency with which quarterbacks have reached 28 0.5 PPR points over the last two seasons. This threshold was chosen because 100% of quarterbacks in FanDuel’s full-week optimal lineups from 2019-2021 reached 28 points or more.)
Quarterback Spike Week Trends
Quarterbacks selected in Rounds 6-9 have dominated in spike week production, with Rounds 3-5 and Rounds 10-13 nearly equal. The late rounds have been less fruitful but still account for 12% of all quarterback spike weeks since 2020.
However... it’s essential to account for the fact that a lot more quarterbacks are drafted in the late rounds than in the early rounds.
Rounds 3-5 have produced just 21% of total spike weeks, but those results are from just 9% of the drafted quarterbacks, making the elite options a lot more interesting.
Meanwhile, dumpster diving in the late rounds, which requires sifting through 44% of the quarterback pool to find 12% of spike weeks, looks way less attractive than before... and it wasn’t that attractive to begin with. Rounds 6-9 remain highly interesting, while Rounds 10-13 lose a little luster.
Tournament Winning Power
As we did with the skill positions, it’s also critical to look at how much these spike weeks are separating players from the pack. For example, Joe Burrow‘s 38-point outing against the Ravens and Dak Prescott‘s 31.3-point outing against Washington were both Week 16 spike weeks, but Burrow still did more to advance teams to the championship round.
The chart below shows the tournament-winning power available in each section of the draft. (Calculated by totaling the Z-scores of each spike week).
The power of quarterbacks really stands out in Rounds 6-9, just as value has fallen off at the other positions. But Rounds 3-5 also stand out once we divide by the percentage of the quarterback population that each part of the draft represents.
Elite quarterbacks have been absolutely dominant over the past two seasons; the first nine rounds have combined for 89% of weighted tournament-winning power. This is because elite quarterbacks aren’t just hitting spike weeks more frequently but delivering more powerful spike weeks. Single-digit round quarterbacks have delivered 68% of drafted spike weeks over the last two seasons; they’ve provided 77% of tournament-winning power.
Rounds 10-18 offer the occasional spike week, but they’re buried in 71% of the drafted quarterback pool. Rounds 10-13 have been the better part of the range, with 20% of drafted spike weeks while accounting for 27% of drafted quarterbacks. But the spike weeks here have been less powerful; it represents 20% of drafted spike weeks but only 15% of tournament-winning power.
Rounds 14+, in particular, are dicey value propositions. 13% of spike weeks have come from this range, but massive weeks are very rare, and this range represents only 8% of tournament-winning power at the position. Because 44% of quarterbacks have been selected in this range, Rounds 14+ represent just 3% of the weighted tournament-winning power at quarterback.
These trends show the extent of elite quarterbacks’ power over the last two seasons. Not only have drafters efficiently selected passers in the early rounds, but it’s also been difficult to find viable late-round options that keep you within striking distance.
“The QB Window”
While the size of the gap between early and late-round quarterbacks has widened over the last two seasons, the idea of getting your quarterback selections out of the way relatively early is not new.
Shawn Siegele has popularized the “QB window,” a tactic that involves taking at least two (and typically only two) quarterbacks in Rounds 6-12. This has been highly successful at driving best ball win rates dating back to 2015. Given the recent trends, Shawn has recently argued in favor of being more aggressive on your QB2 selection, perhaps even ensuring you’ve made the pick by the end of Round 9.
But with NFL starters readily available in the last rounds of drafts, should we really be ignoring these quarterbacks in favor of skill position dart throws?
The Value of Late Round Picks
Hitting on late-round picks is vital for winning a top-heavy tournament like Best Ball Mania. But late-round picks are also worth very little.
Using the last two years of 0.5 PPR scoring, I plotted out auction values for each pick in an 18-round draft to create a line of best fit. Using this method, out of a $200 budget, every pick from Round 14 on is estimated to worth less than $5 each. And the last five rounds of the draft (28% of your total draft selections) are worth just 7% of total draft capital.
With that in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that relying on these picks to secure key players—at any high-scoring position—has been a risky proposition.
Last season, drafters who waited to select their QB2, RB4, WR5, or TE1 until after Round 13 all had poor results in 2021. Meanwhile, drafters who selected all of their QB2, RB4, WR5, and TE1 before Round 14 had solid advance rates and playoff success.
This same effect shows up when limiting the teams to 2QB builds, which were optimal in 2021.
Both effects are also evident when looking at Fanball’s best ball data, which goes back to 2015 in the RotoViz Roster Construction Explorer. Again, teams have been better off when not making key selections in the late rounds, and 2QB builds have strengthened that approach.
This remains the case even when limiting the Fanball sample to the pre-elite QB era of 2015-2019.
The Fanball results are especially intriguing given that the format has 20 rounds rather than 18. This is evidence that tacking on a third quarterback at the end of your draft is not particularly helpful in advancing through your 12-team league.
And based on when quarterback spike weeks have been drafted over the last two seasons, I’m skeptical that a late round QB3 quarterback is especially helpful in advancing through the playoff weeks, either.
Late-Round Spike Weeks
Even though most late-round picks yield very little, the ones with big weeks in the playoffs have been massive differentiators. Last year, from a 14th round ADP, Christian Kirk‘s 19.9 points in Week 15 gave him the sixth-highest Round 2 advance rate. Additionally, Hunter Henry (14th round), Jeff Wilson (14th), Amon-Ra St. Brown (14th), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15th) all scored at least 18 points and finished top 20 in Week 15 advance rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.5 points) was again a big separator in Week 16, along with elite performances from Bryon Pringle (16th round), Justin Jackson (17th round), Dalton Schultz (18th round), and Isaiah McKenzie (18th).
In Week 17, Amon-Ra St. Brown again played hero, along with big weeks from Rashaad Penny (15th round), Rhamondre Stevenson (15th), Darrel Williams (17th), Elijah Mitchell (17th), and Boston Scott (17th).
It’s hard to imagine how the winning lineup could possibly not have had Amon-Ra St. Brown; he was truly “the guy you needed.” But Liam Murphy’s winning lineup also included Christian Kirk, Rashaad Penny, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Jeff Wilson. In fact, only Liam’s 16th-round pick, Dyami Brown, did not contribute to his playoff run; five of his final six picks came through with a crucial playoff performance.
Attached is both the draft board for the winning @UnderdogFantasy BBM2 team and my top 10 exposures at each position.
— Liam Murphy (@ChessLiam) January 6, 2022
I'd love for the draft boards of teams that make the finals in BB to be public information. Some high-stake BB sharks such as @elmagico_88 were in the draft. pic.twitter.com/AvYduMbmAW
The late rounds might be “low value” in terms of their probability of hitting, but these players are still absolutely critical to your odds of winning Best Ball Mania 3.
Meanwhile, six quarterbacks had impact playoff weeks in 2021. Five (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow) had ADPs in the first nine rounds. The only other quarterback to deliver a playoff spike week was rushing quarterback Tyler Huntley.
With 20-round Fanball results showing QB2 builds outperforming QB3 builds over the last seven years, and with the spike week trends favoring skill position players in the late rounds, we would need the ADP landscape to shift before targeting QB3 builds.
2022’s Late Round Quarterback Options
This year’s player pool provides 12 regularly drafted quarterbacks with an ADP outside the first 13 rounds: Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, and Marcus Mariota. These players combined to play 129 weeks in 2021 (not counting Mariota’s sub-package role) and delivered a grand total of four 28+ point weeks. If you were drafting these quarterbacks last year with the idea they would make a meaningful difference in the playoffs, their 3.1% spike week rate had to be a disappointment.
To be fair, this group combined for 16 playoff-winning spike weeks in 2020 (only three of which were from Watson) in 106 games played. That was good for a 15% rate. So arguably, this year’s late-round veterans offer some bounce-back appeal, with Marcus Mariota also offering rushing potential. And players like Mac ones, Zach Wilson, and Davis Mills provide at least a morsel of breakout appeal.
But it’s worth considering how strong 2022’s early-round options were last season. In total, these quarterbacks played 177 games in 2021, producing playoff-winning spike weeks at a 21.5% rate. And 5-of-12 had at least four playoff-winning weeks in 2021. In other words, among the 12 quarterbacks going at the top of drafts this year, 55% of them had as many spike weeks in 2021 as the entire late round quarterback group combined. These five were: Josh Allen (7), Tom Brady (6), Justin Herbert (5), Patrick Mahomes (4), and Jalen Hurts (4). Lamar Jackson (3), Kyler Murray (3), and Dak Prescott (3) nearly got there as well.
This leaves Joe Burrow (2), Matthew Stafford (1), Russell Wilson (0), and Trey Lance (0) as the only early-round options who weren’t delivering tournament-winning weeks at a high rate in 2021. And it’s easy to understand drafters’ optimism for Burrow, Wilson, and Lance in 2022. In regards to Stafford, it’s easy to understand why his elbow issue has dropped him to the Round 10 bubble, given his lack of difference-making weeks last year.
Yes, you say... the quarterbacks going early in drafts had good 2021 fantasy seasons... that’s why they’re going early in drafts. But this is where it’s crucial to understand just how efficient recent quarterback ADP has been at predicting playoff-winning spike weeks.
Since 2020, six quarterbacks have been selected in Rounds 3-5; they’ve combined for 25 28+ point weeks, an average of 4.2 per quarterback. Rounds 6-9 have also been impressive, with an average of 3.6. Rounds 14+... not so much.
If quarterback ADP is anywhere near as efficient as last year, late-round quarterbacks will be very poor bets for meaningful playoff performances. And keep in mind, I’m counting any 28+ point outing as a spike week, regardless of when it happens. The task of hitting on a breakout late-round quarterback who then hits that ceiling during the right playoff week looks fairly daunting.
Of course, it’s all daunting, right? It was also hard to find Amon-Ra St. Brown last year. But the issue with hunting for these outcomes at quarterback is that quarterbacks don’t separate from their peers as easily as skill position players.
Check out the top 50 most powerful spike weeks over the past two seasons below. Even during a two-year run dominated by elite quarterbacks, the combined power of these weeks heavily favors the skill positions.
And, obviously... you start more players at the other positions. Even tight end, the other “onesie” position, can slot into the FLEX. At quarterback, even if you hit on a late-round playoff spike week, there’s at least a small chance the performance won’t even make your lineup. Take Tua Tagovailoa‘s 28 points in Week 14 of 2020, for example. That was a nice result, but he was outscored by Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield, both of whom he could have been plausibly paired with, given their 12th and 13th round ADPs and Tagovailoa’s 18th round ADP.
This doesn’t mean that late rounds quarterbacks can’t be helpful; it’s just that they aren’t as likely to be indispensable in the playoffs. Instead, your late-round quarterback has more potential to help pitch occasionally in the regular season, cover a bye, or keep your team afloat if your main quarterback has a short injury absence. Once the playoffs hit, you’re betting on your elite quarterback to lead the way at the position. If your QB1 disappoints, and you still advance... it’s likely because your skill players carried you to victory rather than because your QB2 or QB3 played hero ball—given how rarely we’ve seen spike weeks from this ADP range.
This season does perhaps offer one interesting late-round option: Marcus Mariota, who scored 26.8 points in his last meaningful action. Mariota put up five elite weeks in his first two seasons in the NFL but then went cold. He hit 28+ points just one more time in his last 36 games for the Titans.
Still, if Mariota has shifted his game to a more run-first style, he’s an intriguing late-round option.
uniqueness 🤝 correlation 🤝 konami code
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 12, 2022
Round 18 mariota on all pitts/london teams
How much you like Mariota should partially reflect how much you like Desmond Ridder. Because, for Mariota to really pay off as a late-round selection... he needs to be in position to deliver in the playoffs.
Rookie Dart Throws
While Tua Tagovailoa‘s 2020 playoff spike week wasn’t a huge separator, it’s still interesting that he managed to hit the 28+ point threshold in his first NFL season. He’s far from the only rookie to do so. In fact, as a rookie, Josh Allen recorded 2018’s 11th most powerful spike week across all positions—posting 41.5 points in Week 17. Allen may not have even been drafted on Underdog (had it existed) that season, with a 19th-round Fanball ADP.
To that point, over the last two seasons, we’ve seen five 28+ point weeks from quarterbacks who were not drafted with any regularity on Underdog: Tyler Huntley (1), Mike White (1), Jalen Hurts (1), and Justin Herbert (2). Both Hurts and Herbert were rookies.
As a rookie, Herbert scored 38.5 points in Week 7 and 33 points in Week 17. And in his rookie season, Hurts put up 37.8 points in Week 15. Entering those seasons, both quarterbacks were bad bets to see a ton of playing time, but they were both difference-makers down the stretch.
Hunting for this type of outcome is intriguing. Alex Baker’s simulation study indicated that a third quarterback is likely to add more points to a team than a sixth running back, ninth wide receiver, or third tight end and can help advance teams through the playoffs.
If advancing through the playoffs is a key reason to build 3QB teams, then it could make sense to target late-round quarterbacks with a high weekly ceiling whose ADP is being held down by uncertain playing time.
But as it happens... drafting a quarterback who doesn’t actually play is a major drawback to making the playoffs in the first place. For example, Jalen Hurts—one of our best case scenarios—had just a 4% win rate in 2020. Even Josh Allen, who saw his first action in Week 1 despite not getting the start (Nathan Pederman will do that for ya), had a poor 5.9% win rate as he struggled through injury and ineffectiveness before blowing up in his final game. Herbert was a legitimate homerun in 2020, recording the second-highest quarterback win rate (12.6%) behind Josh Allen (16.6%). But had a team doctor not punctured Tyrod Taylor‘s lung in the moments before Week 2, Herbert’s rookie season would have been very different.
So even when dealing with future fantasy superstars, targeting rookies who aren’t Week 1 starters looks somewhat dangerous. Given this, even if late-round rookie quarterbacks can provide a playoff edge, 2022 profiles as one of the worst years in recent memory to utilize this tactic.
The only quarterback with Rounds 1-2 draft capital, Kenny Pickett, has a less than stellar fantasy profile. 2022’s biggest rushing threats, Desmond Ridder and Malik Willis, could hold a clipboard for much or all of 2022.
I’ll admit that I’ve gotten weird and paired Mariota and Ridder as my QB2 and QB3, but I now believe I was suffering from a case of galaxy brain. The better move is likely to select Mariota and hope that Ridder doesn’t see the field at all.
Among rookies, Pickett may be the only viable option in 18-round drafts, as a bet that he gets on the field quickly and flashes in the fantasy playoffs. Unfortunately, as excited as I’ll be to play Malik Willis in DFS if we get the chance, his best ball advance rates are likely to be extremely low.
3 Quarterbacks “In the Window”
Let’s move from the galaxy brain to the tried and true. In 2019, Shawn Siegele identified the power of selecting three quarterbacks in Rounds 6-12 in Fanball drafts: “When you draft three QBs between Round 6 and 12, historical win rates and point totals have been even better than when owners stick to two in the window.”
This tactic hasn’t been as strong over the last two seasons, with win rates dropping from 10.7% to 8.9%. But that’s still slightly better than the expected 8.3% win rate in a 12 team league. So the build has shown promise in a landscape otherwise dominated by 2QB constructions.
Moreover, we can combine this principle with the “playoff build” from Part 1 of this series—which consists of drafting an RB4 before Round 14, WR4 before Round 10, and TE1 before Round 6.
In this build, drafters who grabbed three quarterbacks before Round 14 fared slightly better than teams that waited on their QB3—per the RotoViz Roster Construction Explorer.
QB3 before Round 14
QB2 before Round 14, QB3 in Round 14+
Combining 3QB with Superhero RB
If you decide to draft an early QB3 (before round 14), that very likely leaves one less skill position pick in Rounds 10-13. And as I covered in Part 1, Rounds 10-13 have been ideal rounds for selecting running backs.
But with at least one less pick in the early double-digit rounds than 2QB drafters, early QB3 drafters are in a worse position to take advantage of running back value in this range of the draft. With that in mind, we would logically expect early QB3 builds to benefit disproportionately from prioritizing running backs in Rounds 1-2—the other target range for the position.
Sure enough, if we look at teams that combined the playoff build, an early QB3, and an RB/RB start, the results were exceptional.
This isn’t a huge surprise because RB/RB starts had a great year in 2021. But even when compared to 2QB teams that took their last quarterback before Round 14, early QB3 results were better than 2QB results.
And trust me, it’s hard to find 3QB builds that outperformed their 2QB counterparts in 2021. Intriguingly, these builds had the same advance rates, but the 3QB versions did better once in the playoffs.
This makes intuitive sense given the scoring profiles of Rounds 10-13 quarterbacks compared to late-round options. If the goal of a 3QB build is to advance teams through the playoffs at a higher rate, then we’re betting on our QB3 to have playoff spike week potential. If that’s the goal… then shouldn’t we target a range of the draft where quarterback spike weeks have been easier to hit on?
Furthermore, the quarterbacks available in Rounds 10-13 in 2022 are largely from the same archetype: upside pocket passers. Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Jameis Winston are firmly in this mold; Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa are breakout bets in this mold. The only quarterback with true rushing upside in this range is Justin Fields.
Outside of Fields, the Round 10-13 quarterbacks might very well be single-digit selections if they also provided a weekly rushing floor. After all, Rodgers and Winston were top-5 in EPA per play in 2021, and Cousins and Carr finished ahead of Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, and Trey Lance. These pocket passers have the efficiency to deliver big weeks through the air, even if they lack the combined rushing and passing stat lines of the position’s elites.
And we do still see big games from this archetype. Carr, Rodgers, Cousins, and Winston combined for 17 28+ point games over the last three seasons. Carr’s inclusion in this list is somewhat kind… Week 13 of 2020 was his only spike week over that stretch; his ADP reflects quite a bit of McDaniels-optimism. But regardless, if you’re going to spend a third pick at quarterback, it’s logical to target a pocket of players with the requisite ceiling to win you a playoff week.
Of course, as you may have noticed, these exceptional results occurred within an exceptionally small sample. With that in mind, let’s widen the scope and look at early 3QB RB/RB starts on teams that took their WR5 before Round 14 (as a proxy for generally sound constructions).
With the parameters widened... the edge goes back to 2QB, although both builds were viable. Perhaps if you start RB/RB, grab an early tight end and take care of wide receiver, it really does make sense to take three quarterbacks before Round 14. But even in that case, I’d want to feel really good about the individual quarterback selections before choosing that build.
3QB Risks
One of the intriguing elements of selecting an early QB3 is that it theoretically offers a bet against the two-year run of highly efficient quarterback ADP. But if your 3QB builds are of the early QB3 variety, you’re being herded into a pocket of the draft where the quarterback options are primarily reliant on passing efficiency, which is what we are bad at predicting. This creates a risk that you, as a 3QB drafter, will be the one holding the bag when the QB ADP bubble bursts. Imagine holding worthless shares of Derek Carr and Jameis Winston while Trey Lance Twitter bros revel in the riches his legs have won them. Sounds like a bad time.
Of course, you can lessen this risk by waiting until the late rounds for your third quarterback, but the Underdog spike week trends and seven years of Fanball results thoroughly discourage that idea.
So, in conclusion, 3QB builds look tricky to pull off in the current NFL landscape. They’re less likely to be built around rushing quarterbacks and come with more opportunity cost than it appears.
2QB Strategies
If we’re primarily focused on quarterbacks going in the first 13 rounds of the drafts, we’re mainly focusing on 2QB builds. But we have a few different options there.
Single Early QB
Single early QB (QB1 in the first nine rounds, QB2 in Round 10+) was quite successful on Underdog last season when drafters stuck to 2QB builds.
Single early QB has been successful over the last seven years on Fanball as well.
Interestingly, last year ran counter to Shawn Siegele’s QB Window analysis. Drafters one quarterback through 10 rounds were better off pushing their QB2 selection to late in the draft.
QB1 before 10, QB2 in 10-13
QB1 before 10, QB2 in 14+
The effect here was very slight, and the larger Fanball dataset indicates that it’s better to prioritize QB2. Still, if a draft is pushing you toward a late QB2 with an elite QB1, it’s not the end of the world.
In fact, this build logically makes better use of the late-round quarterback scoring profile than 3QB builds do. You’re betting on a strong playoff run when you select Patrick Mahomes; given his 5th round ADP, you’re in real trouble if he doesn’t deliver. With that bet already in place, a late-round QB2 like Mac Jones, who is a lock to start the entire season if healthy, but not a great bet for playoff spike weeks, has some appeal as a reliable regular season option.
Double Early QB
Over the last two seasons, Double early QB (2QBs before Round 10) has been extremely powerful. Simply selecting two quarterbacks before Round 10 and stopping at two has been a +EV build, regardless of what drafters did at the skill positions.
When combined with the playoff build, the results were stunning.
This is a very small sample, and partially the result of an ADP efficiency trend that may be about to reverse. Still, this build delivered an expected value of $54.02. Seems worth dabbling with...
How Early is Too Early for QB1?
The recent success of single-digit quarterbacks runs counter to the Fanball results from 2015-2019. Drafters who took their QB1 in the double-digit rounds slightly outperformed those that took their QB1 in Round 9 or earlier. And taking two quarterbacks before Round 10 was not powerful.
QB1 before Round 10
QB1 after Round 10
QB2 before Round 10
Shawn Siegele has also recommended keeping costs down at QB1, noting that 2015-2018 win rates decreased when drafters took their QB1 before Round 6. Limiting your quarterback pool to Round 6 and later is fairly terrifying in tournament best ball, however. Congratulations if you have the courage to full fade Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes; I do not.
Last year, selecting a QB1 in the first five rounds very slightly improved advance rates for 2QB builds. But it was a hammer in the playoffs.
Week 17 upside
It’s always important to remember that Best Ball Mania’s championship round is much, much larger than the previous playoff rounds. You need to finish first among 16 teams to advance to the Week 17 final. You need to finish first among 470 teams to actually win the tournament. Other tournaments are similar. For example, DraftKings’ $5 Millionaire tournament jumps from a 12-team Week 16 to a 969 Week 17 final. It is not enough to get to Week 17... once there, you need enough upside to take the whole thing down.
This is where it’s essential to keep opportunity cost in mind when selecting quarterbacks. If you select Justin Herbert in Round 4, you’re making a big bet that he hits your lineup in Week 17. And that bet is costing you skill position upside. Last season, 2QB builds that waited until after Round 5 for their QB1 averaged 134 points in Week 17. Teams with an elite QB1 averaged just 125. Teams that went double elite QB saw an even bigger hit to their championship week upside, despite having better success in the first two playoff rounds.
Double elite QB had a positive expected value last season, and had the highest EV of the three builds above. But this expected value calculation treats every team that gets to Week 17 as if they have an equal probability of winning the week. With one top-5 pick having a 0% chance to hit the Week 17 lineup, double elite QB teams will be playing with one hand tied behind their back, unless Rounds 4-5 are a disaster at the skill positions this year.
But in some tournaments, Week 17 upside isn’t everything. For example, DraftKings’ Touchdown Dance has a 27-team final. Elite quarterbacks probably provide a bigger advantage in that structure. You need great weekly results in Week 15-16 while not needing strikingly higher upside in Week 17. But to win Best Ball Mania’s 470-team final, you’ll need to be firing on all cylinders.
Fortunately, combining an elite QB with the playoff build has helped lessen the Week 17 upside gap. Single elite QB teams with the playoff build scored 129 points in Week 17 last year, compared to 133 for teams that waited until Round 6 or later at QB.
And the playoff build was also very strong in Week 17 for teams that selected two quarterbacks before Round 10. The six teams that made the finals with this construction averaged 142 points.
Double-digit QB1
Before wrapping things up, I want to note how poorly teams fared when selecting their QB1 in Round 10 or late last season. These teams had a very tough time making the playoffs and were a disaster once there.
And the playoff build didn’t help much. It boosted advance rates slightly, but the playoffs remained a catastrophe.
This, of course, was partly the result of efficient quarterback ADP. But given the spike week advantages that early-round quarterbacks provide in Weeks 15-16, it looks wise to select at least one quarterback in the single-digit rounds.
Conclusion
Best Ball Mania requires you to think through several factors at once at quarterback, balancing advance rate with playoff week success, with Week 17 upside.
In summary:
- Early QB looks like an advantage in the playoff weeks.
- But spending too much early capital at the position likely limits Week 17 upside.
- This is because:
- Only one quarterback can make each starting lineup.
- Skill position players are better at separating from their peers than quarterbacks in terms of spike week power.
- This is because:
- But spending too much early capital at the position likely limits Week 17 upside.
- While limiting opportunity cost is important, getting boxed out of quarterback upside is dangerous.
- Skipping early quarterbacks altogether was a disaster last season.
- Upside pocket passers available in Rounds 10-13 offer some spike week appeal but fall into a risker archetype
- Generally lack rushing upside
- Best used as QB2s or QB3s to boost advance rates while providing a realistic path to a playoff spike week.
- Late-round picks are very low probability bets at all positions...
- but the skill players that deliver spike weeks in the playoffs are massive separators.
- Late-round quarterbacks have hit 28+ points infrequently.
- Spike weeks have also been less powerful than early-round QBs.
- Late-round quarterbacks have hit 28+ points infrequently.
- but the skill players that deliver spike weeks in the playoffs are massive separators.
There’s no perfect time to select a quarterback; there are pros and cons to each segment of the draft. But this analysis does leave me with some clear personal preferences.
- Strong preference for an early QB1 (before Round 10).
- Target Builds:
- Double-early QB (QB2 before Round 10).
- Singe-early QB with “QB2 in the window” (QB1 before Round 10 with QB2 before Round 14).
- Primary Fallback Option:
- Single-early QB with late-round QB (Q1 before Round 10, QB2 in Rounds 14+).
- Preference for 2QB builds
- Willingness to experiment with 3QBs before Round 14 on RB/RB starts.
- Plan to limit double-elite QB (QB2 before Round 6) to small field championship round tournaments.
