When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
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Players I’m fading for the Divisional Round Weekend include:
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. LA Rams
It’s not you, it’s me, Tom. Really, I’m not going to pretend Brady hasn’t been worth the spend almost every week of this, his 900th season, because he has been every bit of Tom Terrific. It’s just that I’m seeing more upside from the QBs in the Sunday evening game (Allen and Mahomes), or choosing to save big money with Matthew Stafford this weekend. The Rams are a scary defense, I’m actually picking the Rams to win, and I think this game has the best chance of being the lowest scoring of the four.
Sony Michel, LA Rams at Tampa Bay
Yes, Cam Akers has something to do with this as he had a few more touches than Michel in the Wild Card win over Arizona. It wasn’t a crazy amount more (two targets and four carries), and Akers’ salary is now higher than Michel’s in what is sure to continue to be a split backfield. There is also the matter of the Bucs’ run defense to consider. During the regular season, they allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position and last week three Eagles’ backs combined for 56 yards on the ground and one touchdown (though Gainwell added 49 receiving yards and a score as well). Stafford doesn’t throw a lot of targets to his backs so that isn’t a source of fantasy points we should count on. Running back isn’t an easy position to lock up this week, but I’d be hesitant before trusting either Rams back in too many lineups.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay
I hate to say it, but I keep looking at the list of expensive WRs available to roster this week and Samuel continually slides to the bottom of it. Not in price, mind you, but in priority. I love him as a player, but I love the volume I foresee for Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp more. I think Tyreek Hill is due for a big game at a low price and I’m zeroing in on that for tournaments. Ditto for Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown. The Packers’ D/ST is going to play a big role in this game, and given the way the 49ers offense has been working, I imagine they’ll be very keyed in on stopping Samuel, forcing (the less than 100 percent) Jimmy Garoppolo to find another way to beat them.
Injury Update:
Derrick Henry is the one I’ve been waiting for and now it’s confirmed that he will be active and start on Saturday vs. the Bengals. I would use him freely in DFS this weekend, as the most likely scenario is that he plays well against a lower-tier Bengals’ run defense and the team forgets all about Foreman and Hilliard. There is some risk that his workload is managed if he doesn’t feel great on the field, but I generally don’t think players come back to play unless they’re prepared to play as usual. For Henry, that has meant 20-plus fantasy points you can likely get at a low roster percentage given his high salary.
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Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership this weekend include: Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Devin Singletary, Travis Kelce, Dawson Knox, Packers D/ST (Yahoo). You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs if you’re after a more unique lineup.
