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DFS Building Blocks: Week 14 Fantasy Football Breakdown

Jared Goff

Jared Goff

Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Quarterback

Chalk

Jared Goff

Goff is super cheap—$5,600 on DraftKings and $7,100 on Fanduel—and his team has the second-highest total of the main slate. His game, with a 52-point total, is projected to score 5.5 more points than any other contest.

Goff has also been elite since Amon-Ra St. Brown returned to a full-time role. Dating back to Week 8, Goff is the No. 6 quarterback in EPA per play.

Kirk Cousins

Cousins, facing Detroit, is the quarterback of the highest projected underdog per Vegas. The Lions’ defense ranks 30th in dropback EPA.

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As an underdog, he should also get plenty of attempts. The Vikings have a +3 percent pass rate over expected this season.

Pivots

Josh Allen

The obvious construction this week is to pay down at quarterback and spend up at receiver. Cousins, Goff, and a few other cheap passers are drawing plenty of ownership. Allen and the Bills, on the other hand, have the fourth-highest total of the main slate. He is the QB2 in DraftKings points per game.

Patrick Mahomes

All of the arguments that apply to Buffalo also apply to the Chiefs. They have the third-highest team total and Mahomes leads all passers in points per game. The Broncos also have a lot of value options including Latavius Murray and Kendall Hinton, giving run-backs a higher projection.

Running Back

Chalk

Joe Mixon

Despite missing two games, Mixon is seventh in red zone carries and third in carries inside the five. He is also seventh in targets and 15th in total rushing attempts. Facing a Browns defense that ranks dead last in EPA per rush attempt allowed, this is a phenomenal spot for Mixon’s return.

Tony Pollard

Pollard is averaging 24 fantasy points per game with Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup. He sits at 18 touches per game in those three contests.

His team has the highest total of the week and the Cowboys are 17.5-point favorites. That’s the largest spread of the season.

Pivots

Isiah Pacheco

The Broncos are the 18th-ranked defense by rush EPA per play but rank top-five in pass defense. If we don’t get a Mahomes explosion, it’s because the Chiefs played more balanced than expected. That would be perfect for Pacheco, who has seen 75 percent of Kansas City’s running back carries since Week 10.

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey has been a workhorse of epic proportions with San Francisco. Throwing out his first game, he leads all running backs in expected fantasy points (107) as a 49er. Last week, without Elijah Mitchell in the lineup, he paced all backs in both expected and actual fantasy points.

Wide Receiver

Chalk

Garrett Wilson

Wilson leads the NFL in air yards, receiving yards, and red zone targets over the past two weeks, both of which have seen Mike White start for the Jets. He is the WR3 over that span. Wilson is also sixth in the league in air yards share and 15th in target share with his new quarterback at the helm. Now playing faster and less run-heavy, the Jets are en exciting team to get fantasy pieces from.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Since Week 8, St. Brown is averaging an 8/93/.5 receiving line. He is second in the NFL in target share and third in PPR points over that span. St. Brown is still still underpriced on DraftKings despite surging to $7,800.

Pivots

Chris Godwin

Tamp Bay is set up for a high-volume, quick passing attack in Week 14. They are facing Pro Football Focus’s No. 7 pass rush and are missing their starting left tackle. Leonard Fournette‘s status is also up in the air. the Bucs are also underdogs on the road. Those circumstances could funnel an absurd amount of targets to Godwin, who has at least ten targets in all but one of his previous seven games.

Gabe Davis

The last time the Bills and Jets squared off, New York came away with the win, but Allen and the receivers were on the precipice of a massive day. Allen had an 11.9 average target depth. Davis picked up 121 air yards with a 24 aDOT. This game is a high-variance spot worth attacking in tournaments.

Tight End

Chalk

Greg Dulcich

Dulcich is playing a de facto wide receiver role, and that is going to continue with Courtland Sutton out this week. He has the highest aDOT of any tight end and the sixth-highest target share. The only downside is that volume comes on the worst offense in the league, making him a better stacking option for Mahomes builds than a standalone piece.

T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson is second on the Vikings in targets (40) and red zone targets (eight) since Minnesota acquired him at the trade deadline. He is second to Travis Kelce in targets among all tight ends over that span. It will be no surprise to see the cards flip with Hockenson as a top-three tight end by ownership.

Pivots

Mitchell Wilcox

Wilcox earned a 72 percent snap share and ran a route on 64 percent of Joe Burrow‘s dropbacks last week. Hayden Hurst went down early, elevating the backup tight end to a full-time role.

The Bengals also have a solid, 26-point implied team total. DraftKings left Wilcox at $2,700, making him the cheapest viable option on the slate.

Daniel Bellinger

Bellinger returned from his eye injury and immediately regained a massive role in Week 13. He played on 97 percent of the Giants’ snaps and ran a route on 83 percent of Daniel Jones‘s dropbacks. Bellinger earned an 18 percent target share.