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Quarterback
Chalk
After three weeks of dreadful football, Brady got back on track last week. He tossed three scores and went for 385 yards. Most importantly, the Bucs registered a 16 percent pass rate over expected. They had a negative PROE through three weeks. Playing like the fun Bucs of 2021, Tampa Bay’s offense is in a great spot versus a weak Atlanta defense.
Josh Allen
A recurring theme of the 2022 season has been Allen as the most popular quarterback. There’s no change this week as Allen once again projects as an excellent play. Per usual, the Bills have the highest total of the slate. This week, it sits at 30.25 points.
Allen’s worst game of the year came last week, and he still managed 24.5 points. With a high rushing floor and elite passing potential, Allen should be the unanimous QB1.
Pivots
Hurts won’t be unpopular, but I expect Allen to be the field’s first choice when paying up at quarterback. If you want Allen’s ceiling without eating as much chalk, Hurts is the play. With Lamar Jackson off the main slate, Hurts is the only quarterback other than Allen with multiple 30-point games on DraftKings.
His team has the third-highest total on the main slate. His game, Eagles/Cardinals, has the highest total on Sunday.
In larger fields, Herbert is the ideal contrarian play. His rib injury has had no effect on how the team plays. In the past two weeks, they have a four percent PROE.
Herbert is also launching the ball with an aDOT of eight over the past two weeks. That’s higher than the mark he set through Week 2.
Running Back
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Before Week 4, Fournette was averaging 19 carries and three catches per game for 94 yards from scrimmage. A beatdown at the hands of Kansas City meant Fournette earned just three carries, but his role was elite until Week 4. Betting on Fournette to rebound as a considerable favorite versus the No. 31 defense in EPA per rush attempt makes sense.
After consecutive weeks of being a pivot, Pierce has gone mainstream. He broke a 75-yard score in Week 4, propelling him to 131 yards on 14 carries.
Texans running back Dameon Pierce gained +77 rushing yards over expected, the most RYOE by a rookie in a game since J.K. Dobbins (+115) and Jonathan Taylor (+113), both in Week 17, 2020.#LACvsHOU | #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/0mImXG3LNU
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 2, 2022
Pierce also saw six targets and ran more routes than Rex Burkhead. If Pierce adds receiving production to his fantasy arsenal, he’ll be $7,000 on DraftKings by Week 8.
Pivots
Serving as a backup for his three appearances this year, Allgeier is already averaging nine carries and one catch per game. Now, with Cordarrelle Patterson on injured reserve, Allgeier figures to get his first career start. In college, the BYU runner carried the ball 276 times for 1,601 yards and 23 scores as a senior. He was also involved through the air, catching 28 passes.
The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week with the highest team total. Singletary has seen 71 percent of Buffalo’s backfield carries in the past two weeks and has 15 targets over that span. His target volume even has room to grow with multiple Buffalo receivers out for Week 5.
Wide Receiver
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The lack of secondary pass-catchers has been crippling to the LA offense, but Cooper Kupp seems unphased. Kupp has at least 14 targets in all but one game this year. He is averaging more than 10 catches and 100 yards per week. Kupp is the best FLEX play in all formats and it’s not a close race.
Godwin didn’t blow up in Week 4, but he showed us everything we needed to see to confidently play him this week. He played on 82 percent of the team’s snaps and tied Mike Evans with a 19 percent target share. Godwin caught seven of his ten looks for 59 yards. Fully healthy on an offense trending in the right direction, Godwin has a massive ceiling an a solid floor.
With Kyle Pitts out, London could lead the league in target share. He already has a 34 percent target share, a mark trails only Kupp. The Falcons are massive underdogs this week which should force them to stray from their run-first approach. Even if the team struggles, London’s target share all but ensures him WR2 numbers.
Pivots
With Cooper Kupp worth paying up for and Stefon Diggs slightly cheaper than Jefferson, I see the Minnesota star getting lost in the shuffle for DFS purposes. Anytime an elite receiver with a massive ceiling goes overlooked, I’ll buy the dip. Jefferson is tied for sixth in red zone targets and fourth in end zone looks. He also ranks fifth in total receiving yards.
Do you know how much suffering you’re capable of enduring? Would you like to find out? Davis has run a route on nearly every one of Allen’s dropbacks in his three active games this year. Injuries have also knocked out Jamison Crowder and possibly Isaiah McKenzie, clearing a path for him to be Allen’s No. 2 target. Davis has crushed his supporters over the past two weeks, but he’s in a great spot to rebound.
Reynolds has 18 targets over the past two weeks. He saw 10 looks with D.J. Chark and Amon-Ra St. Brown sidelined last week. His team leads the NFL in points per game and injuries have thrust him into the WR1 role. Assuming, St. Brown and Chark can’t go, Reynolds will be a solid value pierce once again.
Tight End
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Through four games, Higbee leads all tight ends in targets. He has 38 looks in the passing game. With no Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce on the slate, Hibee is the closest we have to a stud.
If you didn’t have Hockenson last week, you probably had plenty of free time on your hands. Hockenson posted an 8/179/2 line on a 30 percent target share. With injuries hitting the Lions hard, Hockenson answered the call. Hockenson is an obvious value play on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Pivots
Otton will draw the start with Cameron Brate out due to a concussion. Taking over for Brate mid-game, Otton caught 3-of-4 targets for 29 yards in Week 4. Priced at just $2,500 on DraftKings, Otton just needs to fall into the end zone to return value this week.
Mike Williams is the obvious target for those playing Herbert stacks, but Everett is also an interesting option. The veteran tight end is averaging 6.5 targets per game and is seventh at his position in total air yards. Herbert doesn’t do much on the ground, so double-stacking him with Williams and one of Josh Palmer or Everett is the move.