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Quarterback
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Cincinnati is beginning to open up, clocking in at a nine percent pass rate over expected in the past three weeks. In that span, Burrow has played even better than he did when the team passed less. His touchdown rate is up one percent and his yards per attempt is up by 1.3.
The Bengals have a 26.75 implied team total this week. They face a defense ranked 18th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Lamar Jackson
The quarterback options are thin with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts both on bye this week. Between those two alone, 35 percent of the 30-point games recorded on DraftKings this season are missing from the main slate. The only quarterback with multiple 40-point games, Jackson, will get a notable boost in ownership.
Pivots
In the Week 6 DraftKings Millionaire, fewer than five percent of the field played Mahomes in what many expected to be the game of the year. His Week 7 matchup against the 49ers will be a challenge, but that hasn’t been much of an issue for Mahomes this year. Versus the other two top-10 passing defenses he has faced, Mahomes has tossed five scores and 587 yards. Vegas also expects this game to be close, keeping a shootout on the table.
Prescott is back from his thumb injury this week and gets the best matchup you can ask for, the Lions. Detroit ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed and 32nd EPA per dropback. The Cowboys lead the main slate in implied team total.
Running Back
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The Raiders are touchdown favorites at home versus the Texans this week. In his past two games, Jacobs has rushed 49 times for 298 yards and three scores. He has also been more involved as a receiver, catching 16 passes for an additional 101 yards. Jacobs simply has an elite role for his price on both sites.
Walker out-carried DeeJay Dallas 21-2 in Week 6. He has a 26-carry lead over Dallas in the past two weeks. Walker also ran a route on 39 percent of Geno Smith‘s dropbacks. He gets a defense ranked 28th in EPA per rush attempt allowed.
Pivots
Henry has the fourth-most carries of any running back this year and already has his bye under his belt. He also has 13 targets to his name over his past three weeks. That ties his career-high in targets over a three-game stretch. The line has moved farther in Tennessee’s favor since opening.
Pierce plays the same role as Jacobs or Walker, but his team is an underdog, cratering his ownership relative to his more popular counterparts. Since Week 4, Pierce has seen 89 percent of the Texans’ carries and 19 percent of their targets. He has run more routes than Rex Burkhead.
Wide Receiver
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Lockett cooled off in Week 6 with his first game of fewer than five catches since Seattle’s opener. He still holds a top-20 weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) on the year. He faces a defense ranked sixth in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.
Godwin returned to the Bucs’ lineup in Week 4, but it was clear he wasn’t fully healthy. Then the team rested him for nearly a half in Week 5. Last week gave us a welcomed change. He played a season-high, 64 snaps. Godwin also paced the Bucs with a 32 percent target share and a 48 percent air yards share.
Pivots
With the Chiefs, JuJu’s target share has jumped by four percent when facing zone coverage. His air yards share is up six percent versus zone. He also earns targets on a per-route basis at a far higher clip against zone coverage. This week, he gets a San Francisco defense that ranks top-five in zone coverage rate.
Cooper’s .67 WOPR ranks 14th in the NFL. He also ranks top-20 in red zone target share and total end zone targets. He faces a Baltimore defense allowing 268 passing yards per game.
Tight End
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Dulcich ran a route on 79 percent of the Broncos’ passing plays last week. The team was so confident in him that they healthy scratched Albert Okwuegbunam. Because this went down on Monday night, DraftKings was unable to bump his price up from $2,500.
Andrews is second only to CeeDee Lamb in target share. His cut of the Baltimore passing attempts sits at 33 percent. He has a 39 percent target share in the red zone, also top-five in the NFL. Andrews isn’t just his team’s top receiver, he’s one of the best receivers in the NFL. His other advantage is having tight end eligibility. Lastly, he plays for an offense with a top-five team total on the main slate.
Pivots
Otton went back to the bench with Cameron Brate active last week. Unfortunately, Brate left Week 6 with a neck injury and won’t play this week. In Week 5, Otton drew the start with Brate sidelined and caught six balls for 43 yards. He played on 94 percent of the Bucs’ snaps.
Kittle had his best game of the year in Week 6, catching 8-of-10 targets for 83 yards. He ranks eighth among tight ends (min. 15 targets) in yards after the catch per reception and 11th in yards per route run. He should be a unique run-back option for Mahomes stacks.