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Ten Players with the Most to Lose in 2023 NFL Draft

Rachaad White

Rachaad White

Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The draft is an offseason holiday for fantasy nerds. It’s the most significant part of the downtime between seasons and gives us a crop of young players to fawn over. On the other hand, it’s also highly impactful for many established veterans around the league. That impact is rarely positive for their fantasy outlooks. Here are 10 players with the most to lose during the 2023 NFL Draft.

10 With Most to Lose in Draft

Joe Mixon

Mixon reportedly needs to accept a pay cut or else he will be released. He is also facing a charge of aggravated menacing once again after the Cincinnati Police Department refiled the case against him. Mixon ranked 53rd in yards after contact per attempt last year and was replaced by Samaje Perine on third downs. His play and usage fell off and now he’s in a troubling legal situation on top of being a potential cap casualty. The Bengals are a strong contender to take a back with a three-down profile like Zach Charbonnet or Roschon Johnson.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson is better than most running backs in this class. He’s a proven pass-catcher who can also break long runs at an impressive clip. Stevenson can also handle the bulk of New England’s snaps and touches over the course of a season. These are all hallmarks of an RB1. There aren’t many backs in this class who could shake him of that status. The one archetype would be a pass-catching specialist. If New England adds a supreme route-runner—Jahmyr Gibbs and Tyjae Spears fit this bill—who would steal receptions from Stevenson, that would be a concern. The other archetype is simply a stud, namely Bijan Robinson. The Athletic’s Jeff Howie previously said the Pats “have quietly shown interest in adding another blue-chip back”. If they do splurge for Robinson, he would immediately take over the backfield, relegating Stevenson to backup and third down duties.

Mike Williams

Keenan Allen missed most of the first half of the 2022 season and Williams ultimately proved to be a poor fit as the team’s No. 1 receiver. He posted strong counting stats during the stretch of six games that Allen was inactive for, but the underlying metrics paint him as a player who didn’t fit well with what Justin Herbert wanted to do. From Week 2 to Week 7, Williams was targeted on 18.9 percent of his routes and earned 1.71 yards per route run. Those numbers would have ranked 48th and 34th among all receivers with 50 targets. Herbert simply doesn’t want to throw the contested targets Williams earns. He ranked 39th out of 49 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in contested throw rate. Williams can still be a valuable part of the offense, but the Chargers could use the draft to scale back his role within the passing attack.

Gabe Davis

The Bills are one of the pass-happiest teams in the NFL but don’t have a strong second receiver. ESPN ranked him as their 65th receiver in open score and 74th in catch score. He has utility as a deep threat but is limited as a player. The Bills could relegate him to their WR3 role with a highly-drafted rookie, making Davis an even more boom/bust receiver (with fewer booms) in 2023.

Rachaad White

White may ultimately be a player fantasy managers like far more than his team does. He was a dynasty darling but struggled mightily as a rookie. White ranked 42nd in rushing yards over expected per attempt and 55th in Pro Football Focus running grade. The Bucs have hosted Roschon Johnson and Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs would be a nightmare for White’s fantasy outlook because he profiles as an elite receiver and would immediately siphon off most of the pass-catching work from White. Tampa Bay would also need to take him early in the second round, giving him far better draft capital than White.

Javonte Williams

The Broncos are almost guaranteed to add a back via the draft. The reports on his knee injury have gotten worse since he went down in Week 4. Some have indicated that he could miss significant time during the season. The team added Samaje Perine on a two-year deal in free agency. Not content with their backfield yet, the Broncos have been doing their due diligence on the running back class. They have conducted top-30 visits with Auburn’s Tank Bigsby and ECU’s Keaton Mitchell after meeting with multiple backs at the combine. If Williams can make it to the fourth round without hearing a running back called by Denver, it will be a win.

Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier posted a phenomenal rookie season. He finished ninth in rushing yards over expected per attempt and topped 1,000 yards on the ground. However, the Falcons hold the eighth overall pick and are the start of the Bijan Robinson waiting game. FanDuel currently has them at +300 to take him. Robinson is one of the best running back prospects of the past decade. No matter where he lands, he is going to dominate the backfield.

Evan Engram

I don’t think the Jaguars are desperate for a new tight end via the draft. Engram played well in 2022 and is on the franchise tag for 2023. However, he is set to hit free agency next offseason and was solid but not elite by most metrics. The Jaguars also sit in the sweet spot for first-round tight ends. Grinding the Mocks has Michael Mayer‘s ADP at 24.1 and Dalton Kincaid‘s ADP at 26.9. Jacksonville picks 24th overall.

Skyy Moore

Kansas City let Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. However, the Chiefs also made it clear that Moore wasn’t ready for the NFL stage as a rookie by relegating him to punt return duties. They even took that job away from him because of fumbling issues. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson returning, Skyy needs to cement himself as the starting slot receiver to hold a fantasy-relevant role. In the leadup to the draft, Kansas City hosted Zay Flowers for a top-30 visit. At 5'9/182, Flowers will likely play slot in the NFL and would immediately take over Moore’s job.

Nico Collins

The Texans have a lot of ways to hurt Collins’ fantasy outlook through the draft, including passing on a quarterback altogether. That is an unlikely outcome but now seems possible based on their supposed disinterest in the quarterbacks expected to be available to them. They could also draft Anthony Richardson or Will Levis instead of landing C.J. Stroud. Richardson and Levis have their merits as prospects. However, both quarterbacks are safe bets to be far less efficient as rookies than Stroud. Both will also scramble more often than Stroud, taking away potential targets for the receivers. Lastly, they can add a wide receiver with the 12th pick. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston are both mocked to Houston most frequently by Pro Football Focus users. ESPN’s Draft Day predictor has JSN with roughly a 20 percent chance of being taken at No. 12 by Houston.