Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast and the annual Titans vs. Jaguars Thursday Night Battle! Get your Arby’s and tears ready folks! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you’re playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props. If you’re just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the “Forecast” sections below where I project each player’s PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions.
Thursday Night DFS Showdown Tip: Try to fill your entire roster only using the Titans’ and Jaguars’ defenses.
Titans (19.75 implied points, -1.5 point spread) @ JAX
Forecast: Marcus Mariota QB2/3, Corey Davis WR4/5, A.J. Brown WR4/5, Delanie Walker TE1/2, Derrick Henry RB1/2, Dion Lewis RB4
Marcus Mariota and the Titans’ offense didn’t have a 26+ yard play last week. Mariota’s playmaking ability has been sucked out of him and traveling into Jacksonville on a short week isn’t the time to bet on that changing. Mariota is on the QB2/3 borderline.
Corey Davis will be up against Jalen Ramsey this week, but Davis’ concerns go way beyond his individual matchup. He has less than 50 air yards in both games this season, and second-round rookie WR A.J. Brown is already emerging. Davis can’t be started with that usage, especially in this matchup. … Brown is also just a bench hold given his recent usage, but there’s a chance he leads the Titans in all receiving categories this season since he’s already running a route on 54% of the Titans’ dropbacks. … Adam Humphries is running a route on 56% of the Titans’ dropbacks, but he has three targets through two games. … Delanie Walker has the most receiving usage on the team, and he’s fourth in PFF’s receiving grade among qualifying tight ends. Walker’s ceiling is capped by this slow-paced offense, but Walker is a fine TE1/2.
Week 2 | D. Henry | D. Lewis |
Carries | 15 | 3 |
Targets | 3 | 1 |
Routes Run | 10 | 20 |
Derrick Henry doesn’t quite have the receiving workload of other workhorses, but he gets fed carries and will get plenty of goal-line work. The Jaguars’ defense just allowed 90 rushing yards to Carlos Hyde, and Henry should see 15-20 carries again on TNF. Henry is a strong RB2 option. … Dion Lewis doesn’t have standalone value, but he’s a nice handcuff with Henry only a few weeks removed from a calf injury.
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Jaguars (18.25, +1.5) vs. TEN
Forecast: Gardner Minshew QB2/3, D.J. Chark WR4, Chris Conley WR4, Dede Westbrook WR4/5, James O’Shaughnessy TE2/3, Leonard Fournette RB1/2
Gardner Minshew has the fifth-lowest intended air yards per pass attempt in the NFL (6.1), per Next Gen Stats. He’s primarily taking what’s given to him, something that was ingrained into his brain under Mike Leach (the GOAT coach) in Washington State’s air raid. Minshew’s ceiling is really low if this trend continues, especially with the Titans’ defense and slow-paced offense coming to town. Minshew is on the QB2/3 borderline.
Dede Westbrook’s aDOT sits a lowly 3.1, while D.J. Chark’s (13.8) and Chris Conley’s (13.0) are closer to the top of the league. In theory, Westbrook is a much better fit with Minshew but that hasn’t translated to even average usage yet. I expect that to eventually change, especially since Westbrook is leading the Jags’ receivers in snaps. Westbrook is a WR4/5… Chark and Conley are being used similarly in all aspects (snaps, aDOT, targets). They are both best-viewed as boom-or-bust WR4/5s, and both deserve to be on fantasy rosters in 12-team leagues. If forced to pick between the two, I’ll roll with Chark, who is among the leaders in yards per route run (3.1). … James O’Shaughnessy ran a route on 56% of the Jags’ dropbacks last week and has nine targets through two weeks. He’s a zero-floor TE2/3 with a low aDOT.
Leonard Fournette has lost one carry to a Jaguars’ running back through two games and has six targets each week. He’s a bellcow with the NFL’s eighth-most running back targets, but that production hasn’t translated to touchdowns. Yet. That’s partially his fault -- he’s 22nd of 32 running backs in PFF’s elusiveness rating (min. 20 carries) -- but the Jaguars’ low-scoring offense is more to blame, and they’re only projected for 18.25 points this week. Fournette is a volume-based RB1/2, who needs to start finding the end zone.
The rest of the Fantasy Football Forecast will be posted Friday morning.
