Arizona Cardinals
James Conner leads all running backs in snap share (87 percent) since Week 9.
Conner earned a 71 percent snap share in his first game back from a rib injury. That is his lowest snap share since returning in Week 9. He is averaging 19 carries and 3.5 catches per game over that span. He should close out the year as a locked-in RB1.
Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins averages 15.1 fantasy points per game when he rushes at least 10 times.
That has happened just in 10 games during his three-year (two-season) career. Two of those outings have come this season. Dobbins posted a 15/120/1 rushing line in Week 14. He will likely have his reps limited while he works his way back, but the usage paints an optimistic picture for his fantasy outlook in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a two percent pass rate over expected since Josh Allen injured his elbow.
Before Week 10, the Bills had a 10 percent PROE. Five games don’t give us a wealth of data to work with, but Buffalo appears to be playing much more cautiously with Allen banged up. Even for the running backs, who thrive when Allen is consistently getting the team into scoring positions, this is a negative development.
Carolina Panthers
D.J. Moore had zero catches in a game for the second time in his career.
The first time he was held without a catch was in his debut game all the way back in 2018. The Panthers have a negative 15 percent PROE in their two games with Sam Darnold as the starter. You can forget about playing their pass-catchers for the rest of the season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase led all receivers in targets (15) and target share (47 percent).
Two players, Justin Jefferson and Evan Engram, saw as many targets as Chase. No one earned a target share higher than him. Tee Higgins played one snap and Tyler Boyd left with a finger injury. With Boyd already expected to miss a few weeks and Higgins banged up, Chase is going to dominate in the fantasy playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb is averaging 3.8 yards per carry over the past five weeks.
Chubb is averaging 12.5 PPR points per game over that span. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland’s offensive struggles have crushed Chubb’s fantasy output. He needs Deshaun Watson to get it together in order to rebound as a fantasy option.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 16 of the 2021 season.
Prescott had more 400-yard games in 2021 (two) than he has 300-yard games (zero) in 2022. The Cowboys have not had a positive PROE in a game this year. With an ironclad defense to fall back on, Prescott’s fantasy value has been dashed.
Denver Broncos
The last time a Denver player caught three touchdowns in a game was in 2014.
Three different Broncos caught three touchdowns in a game that year. Peyton Manning tossed 39 scores in 2014. We thought that was the Russell Wilson Denver was getting, but we were sorely mistaken. Wilson posted his best fantasy game of the year in Week 14, throwing three touchdowns and running for 57 yards. He was also sacked six times and threw a pick-six.
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift ran a route on 41 percent of Jared Goff‘s dropbacks.
Justin Jackson and Jamaal Williams combined to run two more routes than Swift. Williams led the backfield with 16 carries. Swift rushed six times and Jackson scored the team’s only rushing touchdown on four totes. Not playing a large enough role through the air or on the ground, Swift is hardly worth starting heading into Week 15.
Houston Texans
Chris Moore led all receivers in Weighted Opportunity Rating (1.08).
He earned 46 percent of the Texans’ targets and 57 percent of the air yards, granting him the highest WOPR of the week. Moore still plays on a dreadful offense, but his cut of the passing attack puts him in the WR3 ranks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence ranks second in completion percent over expected (6.2) since Week 9.
Lawrence’s CPOE through eight weeks sat at -2.4. The good news is that with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions over his past five games, the Clemson phenom appears to be improving. The bad news is that the defenses he faced in that span rank 18th, 21st, 26th, 30th, and 31st in EPA per dropback allowed. He gets the Cowboys this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Jerick McKinnon is second on the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns.
After going for 112 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 14, only Travis Kelce has caught more touchdown passes than McKinnon on the Kansas City roster. When Patrick Mahomes told us it was going to be a different guy every week, he wasn’t kidding.
Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams led all receivers with a 71 percent air yards share.
Adams’ 134 air yards “only” ranked fifth on the week, but the Raiders’ offense didn’t make much of an effort to move the sticks through the air, so his cut of the air yards was astronomical. He ranks third in air yards share (43 percent) and first in target share (33 percent) this year. Despite facing a strong New England defense in Week 15, Adams should have no problem bouncing back.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler is on pace to set the running back receptions and targets records.
Ekeler is pacing for 122 catches on 146 looks, both of which would beat the records set by Christian McCaffrey in 2019. Despite getting Mike Williams back for Week 14, Justin Hebert’s target depth was below six once again. If the Chargers’ offense is not pushing the ball down the field by design, Ekeler will cruise to the receiving records.
Los Angeles Rams
Baker Mayfield ranked 22nd in CPOE (-6.0).
Mayfield’s shocking win over the Raiders was one of the most entertaining performances of the year. However, saying he’s back might be going too far. He should improve as he gets more than 48 hours of learning the playbook under his belt, but he was facing the No. 31 defense by EPA per dropback. He gets the No.13 defense in Green Bay next week followed by the No. 5 defense in Denver.
Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle has out-targeted Tyreek Hill in three games this year.
Week 14, when Waddle posted a 2/31 line on four targets, was not one of those games. Waddle ranks 31st among receivers in target share. Hill’s domination of the passing volume in Miami is turning Waddle into a boom/bust WR3.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook has two 100-yard rushing games in 2022.
Cook had four such games in 2021, eight in 2020, and five in 2019. He has a 200-yard game in each of the past two seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, Cook is 21st in missed tackles forced per carry and 13th in yards after contact per rush. Those numbers are still solid, so I still wouldn’t consider benching the Minnesota back, even if his ceiling games have gone missing this year.
New England Patriots
The Patriots set a season-high in PROE (nine percent).
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this came in a game that New England started without Damien Harris and then lost Rhamondre Stevenson quite early. The Patriots never trailed by more than six points and were only playing from a deficit for a few minutes. If both backs are out for Week 15, Mac Jones could see plenty of pass attempts versus a weak Raiders secondary.
New York Giants
Tyrod Taylor led the Giants in rushing yards (40).
No, Taylor did not take over for an injured Daniel Jones early in this contest. Instead, he played 12 snaps of mop-up duty during the end of a blowout at the hands of Philly. Taylor happened to break a 32-yard run. Combined with an eight-yard carry, he finished ahead of Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones in yards.
New York Jets
Zonovan Knight earned 77 percent of the Jets’ carries.
The downside is that Knight only saw two targets, giving him a 4.5 percent target share. Michael Carter wasn’t used much on the ground but did see six targets. Knight only ran a route on 29 percent of the Jets’ passing plays.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts ranks fourth in passes of 20+ and 40+ yards.
Hurts is only 15th in total pass attempts, making his rankings in total big plays even more impressive. The consistent chunk gains have Hurts sitting at third in yards per attempt (8.1). Even if A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith string together a few down weeks, neither wideout can be benched based on their absurd ceilings.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson still doesn’t have a touchdown.
That’s a stat, right? Michael Timpson holds the record for the most targets in a season without a touchdown. He was thrown 109 balls in the 1996 season and didn’t score once. Diontae Johnson has 123 targets this year, giving him the record if he doesn’t find the end zone before the Wild Card Round.
San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle has topped 40 air yards in one game this year.
Kittle is a run-after-the-catch stud, but his lack of downfield or even intermediate targets has been crippling to his fantasy floor and ceiling. He is currently averaging 31 air yards per game. That will be his worst mark of the past four years if it holds.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks called 11 designed runs and 43 designed passes.
Seattle took an early deficit versus the Panthers in Week 14, but it was clear they didn’t have any intentions of running the football without Ken Walker in the lineup. Walker and DeeJay Dallas were out with ankle issues. If both backs are out for Week 15 versus the 49ers, who have an elite run defense anyway, don’t expect to see much of the backup runners.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette ran 28 routes to Rachaad White‘s 21.
White has run fewer routes than Fournette in back-to-back weeks. He still managed to out-target Fournette two weeks ago but couldn’t keep that pace up in Week 14. Fournette saw seven looks to White’s five. The rookie led Tampa Bay with 13 carries, but his middling usage on the Bucs’ passing plays is a concern.
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill has averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game with Treylon Burks out of the lineup.
Tannehill has posted 16.9 points per game with Burks active. He has also averaged 1.2 fewer yards per attempt and a quarter of a touchdown less when his top receiver isn’t in the lineup. Tennessee’s entire offense is less potent without a true alpha receiver available.
