32 Fantasy Stats that Defined Week 7
DeAndre Hopkins was targeted on 50 percent of his routes.
This wasn’t a product of situational usage either. Hopkins played on 92 percent of the Cardinals’ snaps in Week 7. Hopkins appeared to lose a step last year, but he may be back and better than ever. Sans Marquise Brown, his target volume could propel him to WR1 status.
The Falcons have not passed for 150 yards since Week 3.
Atlanta has a clear game plan: run the ball well and play good defense. There’s only one problem. The Falcons are terrible on defense. Atlanta ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed. Marcus Mariota is averaging 171 passing yards in losses and hasn’t completed more than 20 throws in a losing effort.
Mark Andrews was held without a catch for the first time since 2018.
The Ravens are going back into their shell over the past month. Since the start of October, they rank 27th in dropback EPA per play but second in rush EPA. Baltimore has a negative four percent pass rate over expected (PROE) in that span. If they continue to run the ball effectively, the Ravens could be moving away from their pass-first approach.
D.J. Moore saw 48 percent of the Panthers’ targets.
He also accounted for 51 percent of the air yards. Losing Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson has left P.J. Walker with no one else to throw to. It may be ugly, but Moore will return WR2 numbers through the brute force of a colossal target share.
Khalil Herbert played on 41 percent of the Bears’ snaps.
That was a career-high for Herbert when looking only at games David Montgomery was also healthy for. Herbert is averaging 2.2 rushing yards over expected per carry. Montgomery is roughly neutral as a runner, averaging .2 RYOE. Montgomery only has one 15-yard carry on 77 attempts. Herbert has five times as many long runs on two fewer carries.
Boyd notched his second game in triple digits last week. Despite the 8/155/1 line, Boyd only has a 14 percent target share and a 21 percent air yards share on the season. Playing on a high-flying passing attack is working out well for him, but I would use this as a buying opportunity on Tee Higgins.
Harrison Bryant has played on 51 percent of the Browns’ snaps this year.
With David Njoku sidelined because of a high-ankle sprain, Bryant will likely draw the start for Cleveland until he returns. In six career games with a snap share of at least 65 percent, Bryant has averaged 5.1 targets and three receptions. There are worse streaming options at tight end.
Beyond the touch split, Pollard is also averaging more yards per carry and per target. Zeke only has one catch for five yards, so the latter of those stats isn’t surprising. On the other hand, Zeke still saw 4-of-5 end zone carries. Pollard has forced a committee, but his odds of scoring still look slim.
Melvin Gordon played on 51 percent of Denver’s snaps.
Latavius Murray played in 39 percent of the snaps while Mike Boone took the field for 11 percent. Boone suffered an ankle injury and was placed on injured reserve. Gordon appears to have re-established himself as the Broncos’ starter, but he is only securing half of the snaps on a struggling offense.
Detroit has a negative six percent PROE in their past two games.
The Lions weren’t a pass-heavy team to start the year, but they are currently trending in the wrong direction. This could be because Amon-Ra St. Brown was banged up two games ago and left Week 7 with a head injury. A date with Miami in Week 8 will be a true test of their approach.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers has peaked at 255 passing yards this year.
This is the second time in the past five years that Rodgers has failed to top 300 yards once in a seven-game stretch. He hasn’t even threatened that mark yet. Versus an elite Buffalo defense in Week 8, Rodgers can be benched.
Brandin Cooks has a 19 percent target share since Week 3.
His target share sat at 31 percent after two games. The Texans have been targeting their running backs and tight ends heavily in the past month, cratering Cooks’ target share. This could be noise. Cooks has dominated targets since joining the Texans in 2020. However, the changing dynamics of the offense may be pushing him into the WR3 ranks.
Parris Campbell has a 24 percent target share in his past two games.
With the Colts playing fast and pass-heavy, that target share has been worth 23 targets, only two fewer than Michael Pittman. Sam Ehlinger is taking over for Matt Ryan, so the offense is in flux, but they should still be looking to move the ball with this quick-hitting style. That puts Campbell tentatively on track for WR3 numbers.
Travis Etienne saw 93 percent of the Jaguars’ running back carries.
He also earned a 12 percent target share. James Robinson did not receive a carry and was targeted once. JaMycal Hasty earned one carry. Robinson has since been traded to the Jets. Hasty’s role will likely grow, but this appears to be a one-person backfield.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs did not have a running back play on more than half of their snaps.
It was reported before kickoff that Isiah Pacheco would get the start for Kansas City. He saw more snaps than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Jerick McKinnon ultimately took the field most often. Pacheco paced the team with eight touches, McKinnon was the only back to catch a pass, and CEH scored the lone rushing touchdown. This backfield is a nightmare worth avoiding at all costs.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (105.7).
He is less than one yard per game behind Nick Chubb. This has been fueled by the insane run Jacobs has been on over the past three weeks. In that stretch, he has 69 carries for 441 yards and six scores. He also has 113 receiving yards on 18 catches since Week 3.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler leads all running backs in expected fantasy points (139.8).
Per RotoViz, Ekeler is on pace to tie Christian McCaffrey‘s record of 13.3 expected receiving points per game. That has given Ekeler a slight edge over Joe Mixon for the league lead in total expected fantasy points.
Raheem Mostert ran a route on 71 percent of the Dolphins’ dropbacks.
Mostert caught 4-of-5 targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. He also ran the ball 16 times. Mostert has at least 15 touches in every game since Week 3. The Dolphins have anointed Mostert as a three-down back, leaving Chase Edmonds as nothing more than a backup.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson had a 29 percent target share.
Stevenson caught all eight of his targets for 59 yards. With New England trailing to the Bears for the bulk of their Week 7 game, Bailey Zappe spent plenty of his dropbacks checking down to Stevenson. The second-year back also rushed 11 times and ran 22 routes. Even with Damien Harris active, Stevenson could be a high-end RB2.
New Orleans Saints
Juwan Johnson played 43 percent of his offensive snaps in the slot or out wide.
When playing inline, Johnson has averaged 1.02 yards per route run and has a 4.8 aDOT. From a receiver position, those numbers jump to 1.2 and 10.8. Johnson is spending half of every game he plays as a true wide receiver. He should be rostered in all formats.
New York Giants
The Giants scored a touchdown on just one of their five red zone trips.
Five red zone appearances tied them for the most scoring opportunities by a team, but they were mostly unsuccessful at converting. It was still a decent day for the offense. They had multiple 100-yard runners and a pair of 50-yard receivers. Still, the scoreboard could have hit 40 if they played well in the red zone. This offense has room to grow based on scoring luck alone.
New York Jets
Michael Carter ranks 15th in yards per route run among running backs.
With Breece Hall done for the year, the Jets are going to look to Carter and newly acquired James Robinson to replace his production. Robinson will likely step in for rushing work, but Carter is the ideal replacement for Hall’s receiving output. He ranked 20th in yards per route run and ninth in yards after the catch per reception as a rookie. Given how much work Hall was seeing as a receiver, Carter could step in for RB3 numbers.
Diontae Johnson ranks last in the NFL in yards per target (5.0).
Yards per target is not a particularly sticky stat, but some of the issues explaining Johnson’s horrific efficiency are here to stay. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt which puts him ahead of only Kyler Murray and Joe Flacco. Since Pickett’s first start, Pro Football Focus has charted just 68 percent of Johnson’s targets as catchable. Johnson has also committed his fair share of drops and isn’t compiling YAC when he secures a reception. All of these issues have compounded to make Johnson one of the league’s least efficient receivers.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey led the 49ers in carries after two days of practice.
Two days may even be generous. McCaffrey wasn’t spotted at the start of Friday’s practice but did appear later in the day. Saturday’s practice was likely a walkthrough. The team also lost Kyle Juszczyk to a broken finger for at least a week, freeing up more targets for CMC. Expect a stronger workload for McCaffrey this week and a workhorse role by the time San Francisco exits their Week 9 bye.
Ken Walker led the NFL with six red zone carries.
No one else on Seattle’s roster got a red zone attempt. Walker now has four touchdowns in his previous three games. This week, the Seahawks are three-point favorites over the Giants. New York ranks 26th in rush EPA per play allowed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans led the NFL in air yards (217).
If you’ve seen his box score, you’ll notice he didn’t capitalize on this mountain of volume. This play may have something to do with that.
If the Bucs are going to be trailing as often as they have been in recent games, there should be plenty of chances for Evans to make up for this egregious mistake. Hold the faith with both him and Chris Godwin.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in expected rushing fantasy points (36.9) in the past three weeks.
That isn’t much of a surprise. What is shocking is that Henry got his bye two weeks ago. He has the best rushing workload while missing a game. Henry is also averaging three catches for 33 yards over the past month. He is firmly back in the top five running backs.
Brian Robinson saw 65 percent of the Commanders’ running back carries.
Robinson ran 20 times for 73 yards while also securing a pair of receptions. Antonio Gibson, who continued to look more elusive than Robinson, rushed 10 times for 59 yards. He found the end zone on one of his three receptions. The Commanders get the down-bad Colts this week, giving them another chance to establish Robinson on the ground.