Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Tom Brady at Steelers – Brady was listed in this exact same spot last week and answered with the overall QB7 performance for Week 5. The 45-year-old lit up the Falcons for 351 yards on a whopping 52 attempts but threw just one touchdown. He has exactly one touchdown pass in 4-of-5 games this year, but the Bucs have gotten back to their pass-happy ways over the last two weeks with the wideout group healthy again. The Bucs are No. 3 in pass rate over expectation, and Brady has fired off 52 pass attempts each of the last two weeks. Middling against the pass, the Steelers are 18th in both pass-defense DVOA and Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, checking in at 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Additionally, Pittsburgh is 24th in opponent yards per play and 31st in opponent plays per game. This isn’t your father’s Steelers defense, particularly without All-World EDGE T.J. Watt (pec) and ballhawking S Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was ruled out with a knee injury. Brady is all the way back up to QB13 on the year and should be treated as an every-week top-12 play moving forward. Tampa Bay’s implied team total of 26 points is the week’s fourth-highest.
Starts
Geno Smith vs. Cardinals – Fantasy’s overall QB7 to this point, Smith has multiple touchdown passes in 4-of-5 games and leads the NFL in passer rating and completion percentage, coming in at third in yards per attempt. He’s averaged over 10 yards per attempt in his last two starts against the Lions and Saints on the road. Smith is fourth in QBR and third in EPA. He now gets to come home to face an Arizona defense that is 27th in pass-defense DVOA, 32nd in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, 32nd in adjusted sack rate, 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 29th in completion percentage against, and 25th in opponent yards per attempt. On the flip side, Seattle is No. 2 in yards per play despite running the fewest plays per game. Also, the Seahawks’ defense has been as bad as their offense has been good, coming in at 31st in pass-defense DVOA and 31st in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. It keeps the Seattle offense aggressive because it has to make up for the defense. This game’s 50.5-point total is the second-highest of the week behind Bills-Chiefs. This is another ceiling spot for Smith.
Matthew Stafford vs. Panthers – One of the biggest disappointments through five weeks, the Los Angeles offense looks mostly broken, especially against competent opponents. Fortunately, the Panthers aren’t a quality opponent, and this could be a temporary get-right spot for Stafford, fantasy’s current QB23. Carolina’s offense is 31st in plays per game and dead last in average time of possession and will be starting third-string QB P.J. Walker. The Rams are dead last in yards per play on offense but catch a Carolina team traveling cross-country. The Panthers are 22nd in pass-defense DVOA, 19th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, 17th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and 31st in adjusted sack rate. The lack of pressures created by Carolina’s defense will be a welcomed sight for the Rams’ inept offensive line. The only real concern for Stafford here is Los Angeles installed as a 10-point favorite, which could lead to more run-calls from coach Sean McVay. However, the Rams have shown zero ability to run the ball and remain top-five in pass rate over expectation. I’m teeing up Stafford as a top–15 play. The absence of Panthers top CB Jaycee Horn (ribs) further enhances Stafford’s matchup.
Marcus Mariota vs. 49ers – Mariota is fantasy’s QB18 on the year, and the Niners are at or near the top in most defensive metrics. San Francisco is No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, fifth in pass-defense DVOA, third in adjusted sack rate, and fourth in opponent yards per attempt. But the 49ers lost starting CB Emmanuel Moseley to a torn ACL in Week 5, and stud EDGE Nick Bosa left last week’s game against the Panthers with a groin strain. He remains iffy for this one. Moseley had played every defensive snap up until his injury, and Bosa leads the NFL in sacks. Mariota will get Kyle Pitts (hamstring) back from injury this week. With Pitts and Drake London having decidedly improved individual matchups, that would seem to set Mariota up for a chance at a better-than-expected box score. Mariota is averaging 31 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns on the ground. This is more of a two-QB-league play.
Sits
Aaron Rodgers vs. Jets – Rodgers fired off a season-high 39 passes in last week’s stunning London loss to the Giants, but he averaged a pitiful 5.69 YPA on those throws and has exactly two touchdown passes in four straight games with zero 300-yard passing days on the year. Averaging 231.4 passing yards per contest and running even less than ever, Rodgers is fantasy’s QB19 on the young season. The Packers are 19th in pass rate over expectation and 31st in situation-neutral pace. On the opposite side, the Jets are 20th and 14th in the same offensive categories, setting this game up as a slow-paced, nap-inducing affair. Teams that play in London typically get a bye the following week, but Green Bay is back at it stateside this Sunday. Their body clocks have got to be wrecked. This isn’t a daunting matchup on paper for Rodgers, with the Jets 12th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, 23rd in pass-defense DVOA, and 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. But the low-volume, balanced nature of the Packers’ offense coupled with Rodgers’ zeroes as a runner make him little more than a mid-to-low QB2 in a game with a meager 45.5-point total. His TD rate is down 2.2% from 2021.
Kirk Cousins at Dolphins – Fantasy’s QB11 on the year, Cousins has just two multi-TD passing games through five games and zero 300-yard days. He was able to fall into the end zone on a QB sneak for a rushing score last week against the Bears but is averaging less than five yards per game with his legs. Cousins’ yards per attempt number is down almost a full yard, but the Vikings are seventh in pass rate over expectation under new coach Kevin O’Connell. Averaging 41.5 pass attempts per game since Week 2, Cousins’ fantasy scores are purely volume-driven. That volume could take a hit this week, however, with the Dolphins set to start third-stringer and seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Individually, the matchup for Cousins is on the easy side, with Miami 32nd in pass-defense DVOA and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This profiles as likely another Dalvin Cook game.
Russell Wilson at Chargers – Wilson’s struggles to start his Broncos career are well-documented. He’s fantasy’s overall QB17 and has just one multi-touchdown passing game to this point. Wilson is 24th in QBR and 21st in EPA with a career-worst 2.4% touchdown rate. It’s well below his career average of 6%. The Broncos are dead last in red-zone success rate. Now, Wilson is dealing with what is believed to be a lat strain in his right (throwing) shoulder. Wilson needed an injection after Week 5 but is going to play through the issue, one that is likely to affect his ability to throw the deep ball. The Chargers don’t present an overly-tough matchup by any means, coming in at 12th in pass-defense DVOA, 24th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. But Wilson’s lack of upside coupled with his injury and the Broncos’ big-time struggles on offense leave him on the back end of the QB2 map. Denver’s implied team total of 20.25 points is the 10th-lowest of Week 6.
RUNNING BACK
Start of the Week: Ken Walker vs. Cardinals – Unfortunately, Rashaad Penny suffered another serious injury in Week 5, breaking his ankle against the Saints. He’s now done for the year and headed to free agency in 2023. Walker’s time is now. The second-round rookie has bellcow traits at 5'10/220 with 4.38 speed. On limited touches behind Penny so far this season, Walker has averaged a robust 6.3 YPC on 23 totes while securing 6-of-7 targets in the pass game. He’s 10th in elusive rating among qualified running backs at Pro Football Focus, forcing 11 missed tackles on 29 touches. For his first career start, Walker will catch a Cardinals defense that is 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 12th in run-defense DVOA, and 18th in Pro Football Focus’ run defense grades. However, Seattle is second in yards per play, and this game’s 50.5-point total is second-best on the Week 6 slate. Walker is a plug-and-play RB1 with legitimate league-winning upside the rest of the way. DeeJay Dallas isn’t an offensive threat.
Starts
Devin Singletary at Chiefs – With the Bills blowing the doors off the Steelers last week, Buffalo got Zack Moss and rookie James Cook back involved in the offense. In the two games the Bills have been pushed against the Dolphins and Ravens this season, Singletary played 73% and 88% of the offensive snaps while averaging 18 carries and targets per contest. Singletary was the overall RB14 in half-PPR points per game in those outings. This game’s 2.5-point spread and Week 6-high 54-point total puts Singletary squarely back in the upside RB2 mix. The Chiefs have allowed the most catches to opposing running backs and sixth-most fantasy points to the position. The Bills are 10th in plays per game and first in yards per play. Singletary doesn’t get many looks at the goal line with Josh Allen handling most of those, but 100 total yards and five-plus catches are in Singletary’s range of outcomes. He’s a must-start in all formats.
Melvin Gordon at Chargers – In the Broncos’ first game sans Javonte Williams (knee), Gordon out-snapped Mike Boone 41-30 and handled 18 opportunities to Boone’s 10. Latavius Murray was inactive after signing days prior, so Murray could enter the mix this week, but Gordon is a favorite of the coaching staff and also handles goal-line duties for Denver. This is a #RevengeGame for Gordon against his former team and a Chargers defense that is dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 22nd in run-defense DVOA, 28th in opponent yards per play, and dead last in opponent yards per carry. Coach Brandon Staley‘s defenses have been horrendous against the run since he got the job in 2021. Particularly with Russell Wilson (shoulder) less than 100%, look for the Broncos to try and ride Gordon a bit more. He’s an RB2.
Eno Benjamin at Seahawks – James Conner (ribs) has been ruled out after he was injured falling on the football last week. Conner’s already been dinged up a couple times through five weeks after staying relatively healthy in his 2021 contract year. Benjamin has looked like the better back on limited opportunities, averaging 4.5 YPC on 30 attempts with 12 catches. Darrel Williams (knee) and Jonathan Ward (hamstring) are also out for the Cardinals, leaving Benjamin to likely play 60-plus percent of the snaps against a Seattle defense that is 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 24th in run-defense DVOA, 24th in opponent plays per game, and 25th in opponent yards per carry. Benjamin is an exciting RB2 in a game with 50.5-point total, the second-highest of Week 6. Benjamin has a chance to earn a bigger going-forward role.
Sits
Najee Harris vs. Bucs – One of fantasy’s biggest early-round busts through five weeks, Harris is averaging a minuscule 3.2 YPC with one touchdown run and just 13/64/1 through the air as fantasy’s overall RB29. There’s no chance he pays off his first-/second-round draft position. The offensive line hasn’t even been as bad as we imagined prior to the season, checking in at 20th in adjusted line yards created on the ground. Harris just looks slow after battling a foot injury all summer and then suffering an ankle issue early in the year. Jaylen Warren is expected to continue to see increased reps going forward and remains a premier bench stash. The Bucs are fifth in fantasy points allowed to running backs. As 10-point home ‘dogs, the Steelers will again likely be in no position to run the ball, similar to last week. Harris is a low-floor RB3 option.
James Robinson at Colts – After rushing for three touchdowns and catching a fourth Weeks 1-3, Robinson has posted back-to-back ugly box scores with scoreless 8/29 and 10/27 rushing lines against the Eagles and Texans. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne looks to be finding his footing and has narrowed the gap on Robinson. Robinson brings little to the table as a pass-catcher and is losing carries to Etienne, making him an unexciting FLEX option against a Colts defense that is No. 2 in opponent yards per carry and No. 2 in run-defense DVOA. Running backs are averaging just 3.3 YPC against the Colts. Jacksonville is implied to score just 20 points.
Tyler Allgeier vs. 49ers – In the Falcons’ first game without Cordarrelle Patterson (knee, I.R.), rookie Allgeier paced the backfield in snaps (59%) and carries (13) but didn’t catch a pass, and the Falcons kept three backs involved with Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams also seeing work. It was Williams who scored the goal-line touchdown. Coach Arthur Smith wants to keep multiple backs involved in his spread-the-touches offense. Allgeier profiles as touchdown-or-bust proposition against a 49ers defense that is seventh in fantasy points allowed to running backs, first in opponent yards per play, first in run-defense DVOA, and first in yards per carry against.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start of the Week: Chris Godwin at Steelers – Like Tom Brady above, Godwin was listed in this exact same spot last week. With the Bucs jumping out to a big lead against the Falcons despite Atlanta making it closer in the end, Godwin had his snaps dialed back some, playing just 52% of the downs. He did catch all six of his targets for 61 scoreless yards but remains without a touchdown on 19 targets this season. Godwin is more than due for a score and a big line. The Steelers have been crushed by opposing wide receivers, surrendering the most fantasy points to the position. Pittsburgh is also 24th in opponent yards per play and 31st in plays per game against, and now All-Pro S Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) is out for Week 6. Godwin should confidently be teed up as a WR1 in this spot. The Bucs are No. 3 in pass rate over expectation.
Starts
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Bills – JuJu has been a major disappointment five games into his Chiefs career. There were people over the summer talking about Smith-Schuster being a long shot to lead the league in catches with Patrick Mahomes. Instead, JuJu has yet to post a 90-yard outing or catch a single touchdown despite seeing eight targets in 4-of-5 contests. He’s a middling 51st in yards per route but is second on the team in red-zone targets, trailing only NFL red-zone targets leader Travis Kelce. JuJu played a season-high 86% of the snaps last week against the Raiders. In a game the Chiefs and Bills are likely to be trading punches with a 54-point total and 2.5-point spread, JuJu should be stapled to season-long lineups as a WR2/3.
Devin Duvernay at Giants – Rashod Bateman (foot) will miss his second consecutive game. With Bateman sidelined last week against the Bengals, Duvernay played a season-high 72% of the snaps, leading all Baltimore wideouts in targets (7), catches (5), and yards (54). Duvernay’s early-season box scores were flukes, but he’s seeing meaningful playing time now as the default WR1. Duvernay will catch a Giants defense missing starting CB Aaron Robinson (knee, I.R.) with top CB Adoree Jackson less than 100% due to a neck issue. New York is 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 27th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. Duvernay is a WR3.
Rondale Moore at Seahawks – Since returning from his hamstring injury, Moore has played 86% and 91% of the snaps the last two weeks, drawing 13 targets in that span. He took over full-time slot duties last week against the Eagles and turned in a rock-solid 7/68/0 line on eight looks. Moore now catches a Seattle defense that is 31st in pass-defense DVOA, 31st in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and 32nd in opponent yards per play. As the third option in the Cardinals’ passing attack in a game with a 50.5-point total against a bad pass defense, Moore should be fired up as a confident WR3 play, getting a boost in PPR-based formats.
Sits
Alec Pierce vs. Jaguars – Pierce is coming off season-bests across the board after playing 59% of the Colts’ snaps last week against the Broncos, turning in an 8/81/0 line on nine targets. It was good enough for the WR19 week in half-PPR, as Pierce made tough catch after tough catch in big-time situations for Matt Ryan. Pierce has earned more playing time going forward, but we want to see his role keep growing before trotting him out there as a WR3, especially against a Jaguars defense that is 11th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, ninth in pass-defense DVOA, and eighth in opponent plays per game. Pierce also plays in a run-heavy, low-volume offense where he’s behind Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman for touches. Ryan simply can’t support more than one or two pass-catchers. This game has a weak 42-point total.
Josh Palmer vs. Broncos – Palmer has started all five games this season but has been a disappointment in fantasy with four games of 30 yards or less and just one touchdown. Among 95 qualified wide receivers, Palmer is 79th in yards per route. Keenan Allen (hamstring) is also expected back this week, and the matchup is already tough as is, with Denver first in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, second in pass-defense DVOA, second in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and sixth in opponent yards per play. The Broncos’ defense has been the team’s backbone through five weeks. Palmer looks like a low-floor WR4 if Allen is back.
Zay Jones at Colts – Second on the team in targets despite missing a game to injury, Jones has seen target counts of 9, 4, 11, and 8 in his four outings. But he has just one touchdown on the year and has scored all of three touchdowns since 2018. Jones is a low-floor, low-ceiling play most weeks, and that won’t be any different against a Colts unit that is second in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and seventh in opponent yards per play. Jones has played 77% of the snaps in games he’s been active but profiles as a WR4 in this likely low-scoring affair that features a fantasy-unfriendly 42-point total.
TIGHT END
Start of the Week: George Kittle at Falcons – Since making his season debut in Week 3, Kittle has played 91% of the snaps but has yet to make an impact in the box score with scoreless 4/28, 2/24, and 5/47 lines. He’s run a route on just 83.2% of snaps and has been asked to pitch in as a blocker more with LT Trent Williams (ankle) sidelined. But Kittle does catch an Atlanta defense that has been rocked by tight ends, surrendering the second-most catches, third-most yards, and fifth-most fantasy points to the position. The Falcons are 30th in adjusted sack rate as well, which should allow Kittle to be freed up to run more routes Sunday.
Starts
Kyle Pitts vs. 49ers – Pitts missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury but returned to practice this week and is fully expected to play against the Niners despite his questionable tag. Pitts has been insanely frustrating as a fantasy player to this point, coming in at TE27 in half-PPR points per game, but he’s very clearly a top-two option in Atlanta’s passing attack alongside first-round rookie WR Drake London. The 49ers have been ransacked by injuries and now S Jimmie Ward is out with a broken hand. I’m sticking by Pitts as a TE1 at fantasy’s thinnest position.
Evan Engram at Colts – The overall TE22 in fantasy points per game through five weeks, Engram is coming off his best game to date, turning in a 6/69 line on a season-best 10 targets against the Texans last Sunday. Engram is playing a solid 73% of the Jaguars’ snaps and has run the ninth-most routes amongst tight ends. The weakness of the Colts’ zone defense is inside and between the hashes. Indianapolis has surrendered the third-most touchdowns and sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Stud LB Shaquille Leonard is also out for Week 6.
Irv Smith at Dolphins – Smith’s playing time has been trending in the right direction. After playing 31% of the Week 1 snaps, Smith was in on 63% of the snaps last week against the Bears. He’s still yet to top 42 yards in a game and has just one touchdown but is third on the team in targets. The Dolphins have surrendered the third-most catches, sixth-most yards, and ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Miami is 30th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.
