I defaulted Lamar Jackson into the QB1 spot of my Week 13 rankings. With star quarterbacks struggling league-wide and many dealing with tough matchups, I retreated to Jackson’s dual-threat safety against what had been a collapsing Steelers pass defense.
Oops. Not only did Jackson’s slump continue, it deepened. One week after throwing a career-worst four picks, he took a career-worst seven sacks. He forced balls into coverage and missed some easy throws, arguably none easier than what should have been a walk-off two-point conversion to Mark Andrews. Instead, Jackson narrowly missed Andrews’ fingertips, and the Ravens suffered their third dismal loss in five weeks.
Baltimore has only five offensive touchdowns over its past four games, while Jackson has a 3:6 TD:INT total over his past three starts. He has not found the end zone on the ground since Week 2. Things could get worse before they get better, as Jackson must now rematch with the same Browns defense that harassed him into four picks two Sundays ago. Jackson has been getting blitzed to smithereens in recent weeks, and has not responded well.
The Browns are middle of the pack in blitz percentage, but that’s because they have a man named Myles Garrett off the edge. Garrett sacked Jackson once and hurried him three times in Week 12. Jackson has what it takes to get on track. A big-play threat on the outside in Marquise Brown. A tough over-the-middle-of-the-field weapon in Mark Andrews. His own legs. He could go nuclear any given week. Remembering that helps keeps things in perspective, but it doesn’t make it any easier to keep the blind QB1 faith. Considering the alternatives in the top 12, we have no choice.
Five Week 13 Storylines
Kyler Murray returns, resumes MVP candidacy. Four Andy Dalton interceptions setting the Cardinals up inside Chicago’s 30-yard line helped, but Murray picked up where he left off before his injury-marred Week 8, getting the Bears for two touchdowns through the air before turning a season-high 10 carries into 10/59/2 on the ground. The rushing house calls were Murray’s first since Week 3, though he’s now provided two-plus passing scores in 6-of-9 starts. Sunday’s first touchdown was particularly promising, as it was a 20-yard sideline where only returning No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins could make a play on it. It was the kind of Murray/Hopkins pitch and catch we hope to see more of, and it came in less-than-ideal passing conditions with the wind and rain swirling. Completing well north of 70 percent of his throws, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and making life miserable for defenses both through the air and on the ground, Murray has as good of an MVP claim as any player in this most bizarre of years.
Panthers stunningly fire Joe Brady during their bye week. It came down to establishment in Carolina. Head coach Matt Rhule apparently wants to run the ball 30-33 times per game. With Christian McCaffrey always hurt and “just a guy” Chuba Hubbard running alongside terrible quarterback play, Brady was understandably having trouble accomplishing that. As such, he is now the latest fall guy in a weird year in a weird era of Panthers football, one supposedly based on “analytics” but in reality just a former college coach throwing everything he has against the wall and hoping something sticks. Unsurprisingly, neither Teddy Bridgewater nor Sam Darnold took hold. Brady will now lick his wounds as someone else’s play-caller, presumably in college, as the Panthers’ offense appears ever more desperate down the stretch. All ye who enter here, abandon all hope if you are counting on a D.J. Moore bounce back.
Adam Thielen suffers high-ankle sprain in Vikings’ shock loss. Needless to say, Thielen is out for Thursday’s short-week date with the Steelers and is probably headed to injured reserve, which would cost him Week 15-16 matchups with the Bears and Rams. Thielen has been used as a glorified tight end this season, drawing eight targets inside the 10-yard line and averaging 10.7 yards per catch. The trickle down of his absence is clear: More red zone opportunities for Justin Jefferson, more short-area looks for Tyler Conklin, and more overall opportunity for K.J. Osborn. It could perhaps even free up slot snaps for Jefferson, though primary nickel man Osborn will probably absorb most of the 22.9 percent of Thielen’s snaps that have come in the middle of the field. That number is 23.6 for Jefferson. Touchdowns have been the only thing missing for Jefferson. Although it is possible he will end up missing the defensive attention Thielen occupies, Jefferson could also turn his absence into a WR1 overall finish.
Elijah Moore continues breakout in Jets’ latest loss. We are to the point where not even Zach Wilson can hold Moore down, with the sensational rookie going 6-of-12 for 77 yards and a score as the Jets’ offense managed one frisky half before unsurprisingly succumbing to the Eagles. Now in the top 30 for average half PPR points on the year, Moore is the WR8 over the past five weeks. He is fifth in the league in receiving (459) since beginning his hot streak on Halloween six games ago. Wilson’s presence under center means the bottom will probably fall out a few times over the final five weeks, but Moore is looking like a legit WR2, one who is what we thought he was in Dynasty leagues.
Jaylen Waddle keeps rising up the NFL leaderboard. Marching in lockstep with Moore has been Waddle, who is now second in receptions with 86, if a more distant 14th in yards (849). He has proven to be a glove fit for Tua Tagovailoa’s safe, RPO-heavy passing attack, one who was not affected by the Week 13 return of DeVante Parker. If Will Fuller (finger) ever plays football again, then the target tree might actually start getting more crowded, though Fuller and Waddle’s usage figure to be diametrically opposed. Waddle is obviously capable of being more than a short-area vacuum, and is quickly establishing himself as a top 8-10 receiver in Dynasty leagues. The Jets are not going to slow him down in Week 14.
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Five Week 13 Storylines
Miles Sanders injures ankle as Eagles roll Jets. For the first time in his career, Sanders carried the ball more than 20 times. Then, as so often happens with the Eagles’ third-year pro, something went wrong. Given free reign of the Eagles’ backfield as Boston Scott sat with a non-COVID illness, Sanders stacked up 24/120 on the ground to go along with 3/22 through the air before re-injuring the ankle he hurt earlier this year. With Scott available only on an emergency basis, doghoused rookie Kenneth Gainwell closed out a laugher. Speaking afterward, Sanders insisted he would be ready to return following Philly’s Week 14 bye, but seeing is believing when it comes to Sanders. This might be easier said than done with playoff spots literally on the line this week, but hold onto Scott wherever possible, and take a gander if someone dropped Jordan Howard.
Gardner Minshew revives Eagles’ passing attack. Sanders wasn’t the only one running hot for the Eagles, as Minshew reminded Eagles fans what a pass-first quarterback looks like. Minshew completed 80 percent of his throws, averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, and sparked a season-best day for Dallas Goedert as he provided 242 yards through the air. Minshew’s big day, of course, came against the worst defense in the league, one that has busted every kind of slump in 2021. It also came without the dual-threat that has allowed Jalen Hurts to spearhead one of the league’s most dominant rushing attacks since the Eagles changed their offensive approach seven weeks ago. It failed to get DeVonta Smith going, with the first-round rookie providing just 2/15 even as the Jets kept the proceedings close longer than expected. It was a reminder that the Eagles have options under center, but nowhere close to enough to dislodge Hurts moving forward.
Kenyan Drake suffers broken ankle, Josh Jacobs catches career-high nine passes. Helmet-to-helmeted at the end of a second quarter handle, Drake managed to get his right foot pinned underneath him. The effect appeared obvious and was quickly confirmed: Broken. In Drake’s absence, Jacobs’ nine receptions were four more than he had ever previously managed. The lofty total came as Jalen Richard sat on the COVID-19 list, but it’s difficult to believe Richard will be a plug-and-play fill-in for his free agent replacement Drake. The Raiders’ season is on the line: It’s time to go to Jacobs, who had already buttressed his fantasy floor with increased pass catching in Henry Ruggs’ absence. Recently locked back in as an RB2, Jacobs will now begin ascending the ranks, easily checking into the top 18 for Week 14 vs. Kansas City.
James Robinson benched after fumble in Jaguars’ latest rock bottom. With Urban Meyer deep into his Papa John’s sadness phase, the should-be college football coach said “screw it” as the Jags got routed yet again, favoring his former college buddy Carlos Hyde over Robinson after J-Rob’s opening-possession giveaway. Robinson finally returned 20 plays/three drives later, but by then the game was over and Meyer’s message sent. Hyde finished with more handles as the Jags finished with seven points. Especially considering Robinson’s recent health woes, it is unclear where this leaves us for Week 14 vs. Tennessee, but it is doubtful to be any place good. We will consider Robinson a borderline RB2.
Mike Glennon (concussion) follows Daniel Jones to the injury report. Jake Fromm is expected to start against the Chargers in Week 14 after Glennon completed 23-of-44 passes for 187 scoreless yards and a pick against in Miami. Diagnosed with a concussion after the game, Glennon did not miss a snap, so it would appear he played through the head injury. That could partly explain his dismal performance, but Sunday was a reminder of what you get when you start Glennon 2,021 years after the birth of Christ, especially against an elite pass defense. It is hard to see how Fromm could be worse vs. the Bolts, but it has become a “hold my beer” year in the Giants’ offense. It is also unclear who Fromm might have to throw to. Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard barely practiced last week, while Kenny Golladay is already hurt again with a rib issue. Saquon Barkley might be the sole Week 14 Giant worth starting, and only thus.
Questions
1. How — with an emphasis on “how” — did the Jaguars beat the Bills?
2. Is Bane the co-GM for the Giants and Jets? Are these teams’ punishments never not more severe?
3. Has Mike Zimmer ever wondered how Kirk Cousins keeps posting perfect statlines in narrow losses?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (@CIN), Taylor Heinicke (vs. DAL), Ben Roethlisberger (@MIN), Cam Newton (vs. ATL), Taysom Hill (@NYJ), Justin Fields (@GB), Teddy Bridgewater (vs. DET)
RB: Boston Scott, D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Carlos Hyde, Rex Burkhead, Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer
WR: Russell Gage, Kendrick Bourne, Kadarius Toney, K.J. Osborn, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Curtis Samuel
TE: Tyler Conklin, Cole Kmet, Evan Engram, Foster Moreau, James O’Shaughnessy, C.J. Uzomah, Ricky Seals-Jones,
DEF: Broncos (vs. DET), Saints (@NYJ), Titans (vs. JAX), Seahawks (@HOU), Chargers (vs. NYG), Packers (vs. CHI), Panthers (vs. ATL), Jets (vs. NO), Falcons (@CAR)
On Bye: Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, Patriots
Stats of the Week
Five. Andy Dalton’s number of career four-interception performances.
178. Javonte Williams’ yards from scrimmage against the Chiefs were the 34th most by a rookie over the past 10 years. We already knew what Williams could do. Let the 2022 “RBwhat?” debate commence.
Three. The number of turnovers Gerald Everett was responsible for vs. the 49ers. Somehow, the Seahawks won. Nevertheless, don’t be surprised if Pete Carroll suddenly remembers how much he likes Will Dissly down the stretch.
Via The Lord Rich Hribar: “Leonard Fournette now leads all running backs in receptions (58) on the season and is second in the league in red zone opportunities (51), opportunities inside of the 10 (27) and inside of the 5 (13).”
Via Rich Cimini: “The Jets are the first team in the last 40 seasons to score a touchdown on each of their first three possessions and end up with 18 points on those three drives.” Only the Jets, forever and always.
Via Mr. John Daigle: Courtland Sutton per game without Jerry Jeudy this year: 9.1 targets, 25.7 percent target share. Sutton in six games with Jeudy this year: 3.6 targets, 11 percent target share.
Tyler Higbee has 14 red zone targets but only three touchdowns. How many opportunities can one man squander?
Kyle Pitts has one red zone target since Week 8. Just why.
Awards Section
Week 13 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Tom Brady, RB Javonte Williams, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Chris Godwin, TE George Kittle
Tweet of the Week, from Field Yates: The Seahawks are now 1-0 since signing Adrian Peterson.
Down Bad Tweet of the Jack: Jack Easterby retweeting Kamu Grugier-Hill’s tackle totals following Houston’s 31-0 loss.
The Down Bad Award: The Vikings losing to a team wearing all-gray uniforms.
The Tough But Fair Quote of the Week: Logan Ryan said he’s available as an emergency QB, which he played in HS, if need-be. Said “I’m a lot like Tua, I can throw two yard passes to the left.”
The Pete Carroll Play of the Week: Pete Carroll running on 2nd-and-43.
The All Team Accounts Should Just Log Off Forever Award: The Cardinals’ ... interesting ... victory tweet.
