This game is as messy as messy can get. Even waiting to receive the final injury report and get game statuses has shed very little light on what actually will be the situation as it unfolds by Sunday evening. But let’s try to make some sense of it.
Let’s start with the Steelers. Defensively, they will be without both LB TJ Watt, CB Joe Haden due to injury, and most likely without S Minkah Fitzpatrick (COVID).
Offensively, they will be without starting OG Kevin Dotson and possibly without QB Ben Roethlisberger for a second straight week due to COVID. Big Ben’s status will be updated on Saturday to know whether he is able to be taken off the COVID list or not. But keep in mind, this is a road game in LA, so the Steelers will be flying out on Saturday and Roethlisberger either will be cleared and on the flight or we will know if he’s not traveling with the team.
Despite this rash of injuries, this line has shifted only from the Steelers +3 on the lookahead to the Steelers +5.5. And the lookahead line was published prior to the Steelers losing Roethlisberger last week. So with Big Ben and a fully healthy defense, the Steelers were +3 dogs. Now, with the possibility of being without Big Ben and three critical components of the defense, the line is only +5.5?
One positive this week is the fact that Mason Rudolph has taken all the first team reps during practice, and will be ready for this start. Remember that last week, after taking all the first team reps leading up to the game against the Lions, Roethlisberger self-reported COVID symptoms on Saturday. This gave Rudolph no time to prep with the starting Steelers offense and the team then went out in the pouring rain to play a team with absolutely nothing to lose. It was not an ideal spot for the inexperienced Rudolph. I fully expect he’ll be much more comfortable this week. That said, he’s not a very good quarterback so being more comfortable does not equate to playing well.
And then there are the injuries on the Chargers side. Starting DT Linval Joseph is doubtful, but that’s the easy one. Critical defensive players Joey Bosa, Christian Covington, Jerry Tillery and Drue Tranquill are on the COVID list due to being close contacts, but all “have a chance to play”. If I had to wager a guess, I’d guess that all will be up. But that’s far from a certainty at the moment.
With the crazy injury reports out of the way, we’ve got a Steelers offense that ranks #22 when passing despite playing the NFL’s #8 easiest schedule of pass defenses, going up against the #7 pass defense of the Chargers which has earned that mark while playing the #2 toughest schedule of pass offenses. And Pittsburgh could be playing without their starting quarterback. Pittsburgh’s poor passing offense is the weakest the Chargers will have played all season.
It’s unlikely the Steelers will look to pass with Rudolph unless they need to, which is why it’s good the Steelers will be able to run against the NFL’s worst run defense of the Chargers.
What has been interesting is a big change for the Chargers defense out of the bye week. Courtesy of Sharp Football Analysis’ Dan Pizzuta:
Chargers pre-bye played 2-high 79% of snaps (#2) and with stacked boxes 11% of snaps (#20).
Chargers post-bye played 2-high 47% of snaps (#16) and with stacked boxes 40% of snaps (#1).
Pre-bye, the Chargers defense helped them to be #6 vs the pass but they were #32 vs the run. The new philosophy post-bye has helped only slightly, seeing the Chargers defense improve to #25 vs the run. But they’ve fallen to #28 vs the pass in the three games post-bye.
I don’t foresee the Steelers offense carving up the Chargers pass defense, but this run offense of Pittsburgh could see success on the ground unless the new stacked box defense of Staley limits Najee Harris.
When the Chargers offense has the ball, their #6 overall offense will be facing the Steelers #14 defense without multiple starters. Pittsburgh had thrived in their ability to pressure the quarterback, but pass protection was a strength of the Chargers thanks to the offensive line, and now that Watt won’t be coming off the edge, getting to Justin Herbert won’t be easy.
According to Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis, when Watt missed Week 3 due to injury, Pittsburgh was only able to pressure Joe Burrow on three of his 19 dropbacks. On the season, the Steelers are among the top teams in the league in pressure rate and Herbert does have tangible splits facing heat, completing 48.7% of his passes for 5.0 Y/A under pressure compared to a 70.2% completion rate and 7.8 Y/A when kept clean. Missing Watt will absolutely impact these splits and it’s likely going to be a high-efficiency game for Herbert.
The best thing the Steelers defense have going for them is they’re still likely a slightly below average defense without these contributors, but they’re playing an offense of the Chargers that simply isn’t built for blowing out opponents. And that’s because they play overly cautiously on early downs, and if they have large leads, they tend to get conservative and sit on them.
The Chargers have won just one game all year by over 5 points, and that was against the Raiders. I expect the Steelers will lean on Najee Harris early and often. I’m not doing anything on this game from a betting perspective until I see if Roethlisberger is out. If he is, and this line shifts to and potentially through the key number of 7, I may be forced to value-bet the Rudolph-led Steelers.
