New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
The NFL average is 53% pass on early downs in the first 3 quarters
Week 1: 54% pass on early downs in the first 3 quarters vs the Falcons
Week 2: 39% pass on early downs in the first 3 quarters vs the 49ers
Week 3: down 20-7 vs the Cowboy in the 2nd quarter (67% pass) – #15 run D
Week 4: down 21-13 vs the Chiefs in the 2nd quarter (71% pass) – #29 run D
Week 5: down 15-3 vs the Panthers in the 2nd quarter (71% pass) - #19 run D
Week 6: down 21-7 vs the Bucs in the 2nd quarter (65% pass) - #4 run D
The problem for the Eagles was the passing attack was not working in these games. They ranked #19 in early down pass efficiency in the game’s first 3 quarters. However, they ranked #2 in early down run efficiency. And after the game vs the Bucs, with a great run defense where they felt compelled (like everyone else in the NFL) to pass a lot, I think they felt they could run a bit against the Raiders.
Week 7: lost 33-22 vs Raiders (66% run)
Week 8: vs terrible #25 Lions run defense, led 17-0 in the 2nd quarter (74% run)
Week 9: vs terrible #32 Chargers run defense, led 10-7 in the 2nd quarter (73% run)
Week 10: vs terrible #23 Broncos run defense, led 20-10 in the 2nd quarter (56% run)
So the question is, will the Eagles decide: hey, our offense has taken off because we’ve gone more run-heavy the last 4 weeks and so we should run more?
Or will they realize they are now going up against the NFL’s #1 run defense of the Saints, and choose to pass the ball far more than they’ve been doing lately?
Now let’s talk about the most logical move, which would be more passing. Over the past three weeks, Hurts leads the league in EPA per attempt (0.35) and success rate (54.8%). Two of these games were the Chargers and Broncos, both of which have top-15 pass defenses.
The Saints corners have struggled this season - Paulson Adebo (108th) and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (90th) out of 118 CBs based on PFF grading.
Play action vs Saints has worked extremely well – they have been the #1 most sensitive defense to play action since Week 4.
Play action splits on early downs since Week 4:
No play action: -0.05 EPA/att, 7.8 YPA, 47% success (78 att)
With play action: +0.47 EPA/att, 12.0 YPA, 75% success (44 att)
On the other side of the ball, don’t overlook Trevor Siemian.
Trevor Siemian last week had the 3rd highest completed air yards at 8.9, and although it was not his most accurate day, he still probably surprised some at how well he played in general in what was not an easy situation:
We saw how this Titans defense thwarted quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford
Mahomes in week 7: 4.9 CAY, 206 yards, 0:1 TD:INT, -8.9 CPOE, 5.6 YPA, -0.10 EPA/att
Stafford in week 9: 3.6 CAY, 294 yards, 1:2 TD:INT, -7.6 CPOE, 6.3 YPA, -0.33 EPA/att
Siemian in week 10: 8.9 CAY, 298 yards, 2:0 TD:INT, -7.7 CPOE, 8.6 YPA, +0.16 EPA/att
The bigger problem for the Saints is their offensive injuries. They’ll be down Alvin Kamara, their two starting offensive tackles (Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk) and Taysom Hill is listed as questionable after getting only one limited practice in all week.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
It’s rare to say a team like the Packers has won 5 of their last 6 games without scoring 26 or more points in any of those games. This defense is balling and we’ll talk about them shortly, but I want to focus on the offense for a minute.
Rodgers will look to get right against a Minnesota defense that has been lively in creating pressure, ranking fifth in pressure rate. Rodgers has only been pressured on 27.2% of his dropbacks (31st), but when teams have gotten home, they have caused him problems. Rodgers is averaging 4.2 yards per pass attempt under pressure as opposed to 8.3 Y/A when kept clean.
Rodgers decimated an injury-riddled Vikings defense a year ago for seven touchdowns.
This year, the #3 Vikings defense is better and is likely getting Patrick Peterson & Harrison Smith back this week.
In Minnesota’s new stadium, the Packers have seen the following results:
2020: W 43-34
2019: W 23-10
2018: L 17-24
2017: L 10-23
2016: L 14-17
Four of those games look similar and one does not. Last year, Week 1, the Packers erupted in Minnesota. But what was different about last year? No crowd, no crowd noise, and a defense that was so beat up in Week 1 due to offseason injuries and COVID opt-outs that we bet the Vikings under win total almost solely because of that (and won).
This Vikings defense is playing much better right now and I would be shocked if we didn’t get a 2021 performance more in-line with the results the prior 4 years rather than 2020.
Note: the Packers defense just finished playing Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson and limited all three of these totally different offenses to a tremendous extent. Now they go up against Kirk Cousins.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes completed 35-of-50 passes for 406 yards and five touchdown passes. The recipe book said you’re supposed to stay in a cover-2 shell and never blitz but the Raiders were too cocky and stayed too much in their traditional cover 3 single high safety defense.
That leads us to the most important question about this game. Dallas is not a team that has played a lot of 2-high safeties themselves this season and their linebackers and safeties have not been particularly good in coverage at all this season. We saw Dallas play a ton of man against the Buccaneers and get toasted to open the season.
We saw at the start of the NFL season, the Chiefs played three really good NFL offenses in the Browns, Ravens and Chargers, and they let up points and lost two of those three games. We know their own offense caused them problems, but focusing on their own defense, it wasn’t great.
Over the last month, however, their defense has looked much better. That said, they’ve played the Raiders, Packers with Jordan Love, Giants and Titans offenses. None of these teams are even top-half offenses when removing Rodgers.
The defense has gotten healthier, has done some things differently with their personnel, but these offenses don’t hold a candle to the Cowboys offense.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Whether he came back too early, was just flat out rusty, the Packers defense is on a heater, or a combination of all of the above, Wilson’s return to the lineup saw him complete just 50% of his passes for 4.0 yards per pass attempt with two interceptions and zero touchdown passes as Seattle was shut out for the first time in his career with Wilson under center.
We can point out that Seattle and Russ weren’t that solid even prior to the injury in Week 5. But the fact is, they played 4 top-10 defenses plus the 17th-ranked 49ers defense.
I do expect them to look much better down the stretch against a lot of below average defenses, but this week they have to play the #2 Cardinals defense.
Seattle’s own defense has looked good of late, but we have to keep in mind the opposition:
Ben Roethlisberger
Jameis Winston in the rain
Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers in his first game post-Covid
They might get Kyler Murray in his first game post-ankle injury but it’s TBD.
