Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
The Colts pass defense ranks 10th worst in the NFL despite playing the #2 easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses and their only wins this season have come against pass offenses that rank 26th or worse (save for a game in a monsoon vs the 49ers)
The Indianapolis Colts have 5 wins on the season.
They’ve played 4 offenses that rank 26th or worse in passing efficiency and won all 4 games:
27-17 win over #26 Dolphins
45-30 win over #27 Jets
23-17 win over #28 Jaguars
31-3 win over #31 Texans
Their only other win this year was vs the 49ers in a monsoon.
They’ve played just 3 other pass offenses that rank average or above average and lost all 3 games:
27-24 loss to the #6 Rams
28-16 loss to the #10 Seahawks
31-25 loss to the #16 Ravens
Their other losses came vs the #21 Titans passing attack.
The Bills passing offense ranks #12 in efficiency and is the 6th most pass-heavy in the NFL.
The combination of desire to pass and efficiency gained by passing is something the Colts have not seen but for one game this season.
Two of the three offenses that were efficient passing offenses (Seahawks, Ravens) both rank bottom-10 in pass rate. So they were efficient passing, but didn’t pass as often. The only team that comes close to pass efficiency and frequency was the Rams back in Week 2 of the season.
While the pass defense can be exploited, the Colts run defense ranks #2 in the NFL despite playing the #9 toughest schedule of opposing run offenses
7 of the 10 offenses the Colts have faced this season have rushing attacks that rank top-12 in the NFL:
#2 Jaguars
#3 Ravens
#7 49ers
#9 Rams
#10 Titans x 2
#12 Seahawks
The Colts have played only three rushing offenses that rank outside the top-12 and they won all three of those games:
#21 Jets
#30 Dolphins
#31 Texans
The Bills rushing offense ranks #18 and that has come against the 11th easiest schedule of run defenses.
In their last 6 games, the Bills have played 4 run defenses that rank #25 or worse (Titans, Chiefs, Texans and Jets).
The only run defenses that rank better than #25 were a 6-9 loss vs the #7 Jaguars run defense and a 26-11 win over the #14 Dolphins run defense.
Last year’s Wild Card round splits vs the Colts defense:
RB-runs vs Colts: -0.14 EPA/att, 4.2 YPC, 40% success (10 att)
QB-runs vs Colts: +0.01 EPA/att, 4.9 YPC, 55% success (11 att)
Passes vs Colts: +0.24 EPA/att, 9.5 YPA, 59% success (34 att)
The Colts run defense vs QBs by down:
1st down: -0.30 EPA/att, 2.6 YPC, 50% success
2nd down: +0.14 EPA/att, 6.5 YPC, 53% success
3rd down: +0.35 EPA/att, 5.6 YPC, 67% success
This will be the toughest run defense the Bills have faced this season.
The combination of this #2 run defense and #26 pass defense makes this Colts defense is one of the biggest pass-funnels we have in the NFL.
Last year in the regular season, the Bills offense was substantially more efficient than this year’s team.
Look at early downs in the first three quarters:
2020: +0.23 EPA/att, 8.0 YPA, 62% success
2021: +0.07 EPA/att, 7.6 YPA, 56% success
In 2020, this team was 67% pass in the first three quarters of games, and ranked #1 in pass rate over expectation on first down but was still top-half of the NFL in every other down and distance save for 3rd and short.
In 2021, the Bills are 65% pass, and aside from first down where they are still #1 in pass rate over expectation, they are average to below average in every single other pass rate situation.
In the first 3 quarters of games:
2020:
2nd & 10: 67% pass, 3% above average
2nd & 7-9: 75% pass, 3% above average
2nd & 3-6: 56% pass, 4% above average
2nd & 1-2: 41% pass, 11% above average
3rd & 3-6: 95% pass, 4% above average
3rd & 1-2: 36% pass, 6% below average
2021:
2nd & 10: 59% pass, 5% below average
2nd & 7-9: 69% pass, 4% below average
2nd & 3-6: 51% pass, average
2nd & 1-2: 18% pass, 11% below average
3rd & 3-6: 91% pass, 1% below average
3rd & 1-2: 45% pass, 2% above average
On the other side of the ball, while Buffalo’s pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL, look at the quarterbacks this Bills offense has faced:
Ben Roethlisberger
Tua Tagovailoa
Taylor Heinicke
Davis Mills
Patrick Mahomes
Ryan Tannehill
Jacoby Brissett
Trevor Lawrence
Mike White
Overall, this defense has played the #1 easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
This game comes down to whether or not the Bears maximize play calls that focus on the simple theory:
Run from spread personnel and pass from heavy personnel.
Sounds simple. But for some coaches, it’s not as easy to understand as it sounds.
But in this game, Bears’ runs from spread and passes from heavy personnel not only are their most efficient structure, it’s also the weakness of the Ravens defense.
The Ravens run defense is outstanding against RB-runs from 12 personnel – the Bears should look to handoff the ball to RBs primarily when they are in 11 personnel
Ravens RB-run defense by personnel (early downs, first three quarters):
Vs 11 personnel: +0.07 EPA/att, 5.1 YPC, 50% success (32 att)
Vs 12 personnel: -0.16 EPA/att, 2.3 YPC, 32% success (22 att)
Vs 13 personnel: -0.04 EPA/att, 4.3 YPC, 67% success (3 att)
The Bears own offensive RB-rushing metrics by personnel:
From 11 personnel: -0.01 EPA/att, 5.0 YPC, 51% success (49 att)
From 12 personnel: -0.08 EPA/att, 3.5 YPC, 42% success (36 att)
From 13 personnel: -0.12 EPA/att, 4.2 YPC, 33% success (12 att)
When running with RBs, the Bears should look to focus on doing so out of 11 personnel as it’s their own strength and the Ravens’ weakness, rather than running from 12 or 13 personnel, which are the Bears’ weaknesses and the Ravens’ strengths.
The most successful early down passing approach for the Bears has been under center play action from heavier personnel such as 12 and 13.
First, examine the Bears own performance on their most utilized passing concepts since Week 4, sorted by frequency (early downs, full game):
Shotgun 11 personnel, no p/a: -0.12 EPA, 5.8 YPA, 49% success (56 att)
Under center 12 personnel with p/a: +0.22 EPA/att, 13.4 YPA, 86% success (17 att)
Shotgun 12 personnel, no p/a: +0.03 EPA/att, 11.8 YPA, 58% success (13 att)
Under center 11 personnel with p/a: -0.14 EPA/att, 5.0 YPA, 45% success (13 att)
Shotgun 11 personnel with p/a: +0.19 EPA/att, 4.0 YPA, 80% success (7 att)
Under center 13 personnel with p/a: +0.49 EPA/att, 9.5 YPA, 75% success (4 att)
The common theme is passing from heavier personnel, with the lone exception of shotgun 11 personnel with p/a, and those passes that actually worked were 0/1 step shotgun drops with p/a.
Next, look at the Ravens defense vs the two often-used 11 personnel concepts the Bears use:
Vs shotgun 11 personnel, no p/a: -0.06 EPA/att, 6.4 YPA, 40% success (56 att)
Vs under center 11 personnel with p/a: -0.01 EPA/att, 6.7 YPA, 33% success (12 att)
The Ravens have been solid vs both of these concepts, so the Bears should limit them.
Vs shotgun 11 personnel with p/a: +0.63 EPA/att, 10.8 YPA, 70% success (23 att)
This is the lone 11 personnel passing concept that the Bears have been good with and the Ravens have been bad against. Shotgun 11 personnel with p/a is the lone 11 personnel passing concept I would focus on.
Now look at the Ravens defense vs the 12 or 13 personnel types that the Bears have been using and have been getting success out of:
Vs Under center 12 personnel with p/a: +0.16 EPA/att, 8.4 YPA, 55% success (13 att)
Vs Shotgun 12 personnel, no p/a: -0.35 EPA/att, 6.1 YPA, 33% success (19 att)
Vs Under center 13 personnel with p/a: +0.80 EPA/att, 14 YPA, 50% success (4 att, 2 were TDs)
The Ravens defense were very strong vs shotgun 12 personnel passes that did not employ play action. But under center play action from both 12 and 13 personnel had a lot of success.
Chicago is ravaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which makes a wager on them a risky proposition, but if this line climbs to 7, it’s going to be nearly impossible to resist.
