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Fantasy football can be a war of attrition, but only for those willing to grind waivers.
Everyone gets stung by injuries now and again. Yes, some managers are stung with the stingers of a thousand bees descending on them all at once while others only deal with a pinch on the arm. Almost everyone in your league will be left scrambling at some point this season. It’s a matter of who is ready and willing to adjust their grindset.
Our brains work in a way that says fantasy managers dealing with early-season injuries have it the worst, ignoring that there are three months left in the NFL season and fantasy squads being wrecked by bad injury luck could soon be healthy while currently healthy rosters slowly whittle away as the leaves fall and the daylight fades. Managers who hit a late-season injury skid probably won’t give up. Neither should you if you’re among the unfortunate folks hammered by September injuries.
What I’m saying is to keep the faith. Put the necessary brainpower into optimizing your bench stashes and you’ll have a chance to survive and advance. A hideous, injury-marred fantasy roster can quickly turn into a beauty as the chaos of the NFL season takes hold. The known unknowns can make your team stronger if you play it right.
Let’s get into Week 4 waivers. Below I’ve ranked players in order of priority and mentioned which guys are worth rostering in smaller leagues and larger formats.
| Priority | Player | Position | Team | % Rostered |
| 1. | Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | 60% |
| 2. | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 49% |
| 3. | Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | 25% |
| 4. | Kadarius Toney | WR | NYG | 31% |
| 5. | Zay Jones | WR | JAC | 10% |
| 6. | Alexander Mattison | RB | MIN | 55% |
| 7. | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 50% |
| 8. | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 45% |
| 9. | Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | 45% |
| 10. | Rachaad White | RB | TB | 30% |
Quarterback
| Priority | Player | Team | % Rostered |
| 1. | Jared Goff | DET | 45% |
| 2. | Marcus Mariota | ATL | 22% |
| 3. | Jameis Winston | NO | 42% |
| 4. | Geno Smith | SEA | 9% |
| 5. | Brian Hoyer | NE | 0% |
Jared Goff (DET)
Rostership: 45 percent
Goff is a top-12 quarterback after three weeks, causing existential crises the world over. If he’s going to be serviceable for fantasy purposes, we might as well roster Goff amid our existential torment.
The Lions’ pass rate over expected lingers in the middle of the pack through Week 3, but they’re putting Goff in enviable positions with the league’s fourth highest pass rate over expected on first downs. In fact, Detroit has a higher pass rate over expected on most down and distances thanks to our Analytics Prince Dan Campbell. This along with a fast-paced offense and a defense that can’t stop anyone has generated solid volume for Goff. Detroit is averaging 67.8 offensive plays per game, the seventh highest mark in the NFL.
He’ll get a crack this week at a Seattle defense hemorrhaging the highest EPA per play and the fourth-highest passing success rate. The Seahawks, giving up a league-high 8.4 yards per pass attempt, can’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air. Goff needs to be rostered and started in 12-team leagues this week.
Marcus Mariota (ATL)
Rostership: 22 percent
I am not, in fact, contractually obligated to mention Mariota in every single waiver wire column this season. It’s just that fantasy managers keep stubbornly starting quarterbacks they drafted instead of rolling with the guy who has more fantasy points than all but 11 quarterbacks through Week 3.
You know the drill by now: Mariota comes with the all-important rushing floor. He’s logged at least six rushing attempts in each of his three 2022 games. Only three QBs have more designed rushes than Mariota (15). That he hasn’t been a particularly good runner -- averaging a meager 3.8 yards per carry -- doesn’t matter all that much. It would be nice if he stopped fumbling. We can’t be picky though.
This week Mariota takes on a Cleveland defense allowing the 12th highest EPA per dropback. The Browns defense has been plain bad through three weeks and hasn’t been able to put much pressure on the passer. The Falcons, meanwhile, have done an outstanding job keeping Mariota upright in the pocket. Mariota has faced the fifth lowest pressure rate (26.3 percent) this year. He’s a luxury in Superflex leagues and should be considered a top-notch streaming play in one-QB formats.
Other quarterbacks to roster
Jameis Winston (42 percent): For better (fantasy) or worse (the Saints’ playoff hopes), we have Old Jameis back under center, flinging it every which way. Winston is tied for fourth with eight attempts of more than 20 yards; he’s sixth in passes of more than 30 yards; he’s third in throws of over 40 yards. His four touchdowns and five picks aren’t fantastic, but his 860 yards through three games will play just fine. Now he gets a matchup against the massive pass-funnel Minnesota defense. Though he’ll continue as a volatile fantasy option, you could do way worse than Winston in a game featuring the third-highest total of Week 4.
Geno Smith (9 percent): Smith has become -- dare I say -- startable in Superflex leagues. With four touchdowns, two interceptions, and a league-leading 12.2 completion rate over expected, Smith is faring just fine as a caretaker of the pass-heavy Seattle offense. He profiles as a fine streaming play in Week 4 against a Lions defense allowing a hefty 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Smith’s prospects could be somewhat diminished here since the Lions are an extreme run-funnel defense.
Brian Hoyer (0 percent): Mac Jones will likely miss a few games with what looked to be the worst ankle injury in the history of ankles. Hoyer is a living human who will play quarterback in the NFL. Superflex folks, you know what to do.
Running Back
| Priority | Player | Team | % Rostered |
| 1. | Jamaal Williams | DET | 60% |
| 2. | Khalil Herbert | CHI | 49% |
| 3. | Alexander Mattison | MIN | 55% |
| 4. | Rachaad White | TB | 30% |
| 5. | James Cook | BUF | 40% |
| 6. | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 9% |
| 7. | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 15% |
| 8. | Jerick McKinnon | KC | 7% |
Jamaal Williams (DET)
Rostership: 60 percent
I’m putting Williams atop my waiver priorities despite fearing the wrath of Not In My League Twitter, who will surely remind me Williams was taken in the seventh round of their draft. My family has gone into hiding just in case.
D’Andre Swift is expected to miss some time with a shoulder injury, possibly two or three weeks. This comes after the perpetually-injured Swift gimped into Week 3 with an ankle issue. Williams, who was already stripping Swift of all-important touches inside the ten-yard line, becomes something close to an RB1 in 12-team formats with Swift sidelined.
Headed into Week 3, Williams led the Lions backfield in high-value touches (receptions plus touches inside the ten), seeing 56 percent of such touches while Swift saw 38 percent. Swift drafters are painfully aware that Williams has four touchdowns in three games as Detroit’s unquestioned goal line back. Probably Williams won’t dominate pass routes and targets in Swift’s absence. Craig Reynolds -- who should be picked up in deep leagues -- had some pass-game involvement in Week 3 against the Vikings with Swift struggling through various ailments.
I’m not going to preach caution for managers who need a starting running back and aren’t opposed to going all in for Williams. He has a tremendous Week 4 matchup against Seattle, the league’s most atrocious run defense by a long shot.
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Rostership: 49 percent
Faithful readers of this space may or may not recall me writing about Herbert as Chicago’s best backfield option before the Bears kicked off their dead-on-arrival 2022 season. It was only a matter of Herbert wrestling away the starting gig from David Montgomery, a longtime favorite of every coach who has ever come into contact with the fella.
Montgomery went down in Week 3 with an injury to his knee and/or ankle and Herbert filled in as the team’s lead back on his way to 157 rushing yards, two scores, and two receptions against Houston. He led all Bears running backs with a 60 percent route participation rate. He’s been his usual excellent self this year with a gaudy 4.82 yards after contact per rush, leading the NFL. Only Nick Chubb has more runs of more than 10 yards, and Herbert has 30 fewer carries than Chubb. PFF grades Herbert as the NFL’s fifth most elusive back through Week 3. An extraordinarily productive college back at Virginia Tech, Herbert might just be very good.
You’re going to want the bellcow back in the NFL’s run-heaviest offense (only the Niners are close to the Bears’ pass rate over expected of -19 percent). Herbert in 2021 took over as Chicago’s top back from Week 5 to Week 8 with Montgomery sidelined, racking up the 17th most running back PPR points over that span (while scoring a single touchdown on 89 touches). Only eight running backs had a higher yards after contact per carry in those four weeks. A mere six backs posted a higher evasion rate than Herbert from Week 5 to Week 8. There are plenty of reasons to believe Herbert is a superb runner who could carve out a more permanent role in Montgomery’s absence.
That Bears coaches don’t seem overly concerned about Montgomery’s injury being of the long-term variety, RB-thirsty fantasy managers would do well not to blow their entire free agent budget on Herbert. For now, he looks like a top-notch one or two-week fill-in.
Trestan Ebner, after playing 15 snaps and seeing seven carries for 23 yards against the Texans, would be next up if something were to befall Herbert. He’s worth rostering in 14-team formats.
Other running backs to roster
Alexander Mattison (55 percent): The founding father should be scooped up pretty much everywhere this week. He functioned as Minnesota’s workhorse against Detroit back after Dalvin Cook left with the latest of his many shoulder injuries. Cook will reportedly play in Week 4 wearing a shoulder brace of some kind. We shouldn’t be surprised if he’s limited though. There’s certainly a chance the team exercises caution and lets Mattison take over for one week while Cook gets right. Mattison was the only Vikings back to run a route besides Cook in Week 3. Mattison’s career rushing metrics are equal to or better than Cook’s.
Rachaad White (30 percent): Lombardi Lenny continues to dominate touches in the Tampa backfield, as White remains purely a contingency back. But he’s an important one and should be rostered by any and all fantasy managers looking to stash high-value insurance running backs before they become the poster child of every waiver piece on the planet.
James Cook (40 percent): It would require an injury for Devin Singletary, but James Cook appears to be the best back in the Buffalo backfield, per the metrics. Cook, who caught four of five targets against the Dolphins last week while seeing a target on five of his seven routes, has the league’s seventh highest yards after contact per carry. Cook would likely inherit most -- if not all -- of the pass-catching work in the Bills’ backfield. He’s a fantastic bench stash for now.
Jaylen Warren (9 percent): The rookie is eating into Najee Harris’ snaps and carries a little more than we anticipated. Maybe (probably) that has something to do with Harris being banged up after being bent in half two weeks ago. So far Warren has matched Harris in nearly every rushing metric. He would be a top-20 fantasy option if Harris were to miss time in 2022.
Tyler Allgeier (15 percent): Allgeier has seized the RB2 role behind Cordarrelle Patterson, the converted wideout who continues to be a top-end running back. Curiously, Allgeier in Week 3 played more than C-Patt in third and long situations; both backs had one goal line snap against the Seahawks, and Patterson ran 12 routes to eight for the rookie. Allgeier would likely be in line for double-digit touches and all the short yardage and goal line work should Patterson miss time. He’s a reasonable bench stash in 12-team formats.
Jerick McKinnon (7 percent): McKinnon has quietly stripped Clyde Edwards-Helaire of a good number of high-value touches this season. In Week 3 against the Colts, McKinnon logged more pass routes than Edwards-Helaire and matched CEH with seven carries. We saw McKinnon’s fantasy value late last season when he had the primary back role in the KC backfield. He’s the perfect end-of-bench stash in PPR leagues.
Wide Receiver
| Priority | Player | Team | % Rostered |
| 1. | Romeo Doubs | GB | 25% |
| 2. | Kadarius Toney | NYG | 31% |
| 3. | Zay Jones | JAC | 10% |
| 4. | Treylon Burks | TEN | 45% |
| 5. | George Pickens | PIT | 40% |
| 6. | Rondale Moore | ARI | 17% |
| 7. | Mack Hollins | LV | 2% |
| 8. | Greg Dortch | ARI | 17% |
| 9. | K.J. Osborn | MIN | 6% |
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Rostership: 25 percent
Doubs, in an expanded Week 3 role against the Bucs, was far and away the Packers’ best receiver. The rookie was faster and more elusive after the catch than Randall Cobb or Allen Lazard, and he was rewarded with eight targets on 34 routes. He was a mainstay in two-receiver sets. And he was one shoelace tackle away from taking an intermediate pass to the house.
What I’m saying is it might not matter that Christian Watson (hamstring) is expected back soon. Doubs may have carved out a permanent role in Green Bay’s offense. The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman said Doubs in Week 3 “showcased his route-running prowess and speed in the open field, two traits that, along with improved hands, should earn him just as many opportunities in the future.” Aaron Rodgers said the team drew up plays specifically for Doubs. He could be on his way to WR1 status in Rodgers’ offense and should be rostered in every 12-team league.
Kadarius Toney (NYG)
Rostership: 31 percent
The Giants might finally be forced to use their best offensive weapon following Sterling Shepard‘s latest catastrophic injury, which required a cart at the end of New York’s Monday night loss to the Cowboys. Shepard leaves a hole in the shape of an eye-popping 29 percent target share. Toney’s rostership, meanwhile, has rightfully dwindled as the second-year receiver has seen three targets in two games of limited snaps. And yes, Brian Daboll hates Toney. Maybe that won’t matter as much now.
Toney has a real chance to play something resembling a full complement of snaps if Shepard -- who ran a third of his routes from the slot -- is out indefinitely. Toney, a yards per route run and targets per route run king of kings during his 2021 three-game hot streak, should be picked up anywhere he’s available. Hopefully, his hamstring issue is not the long-term kind.
Zay Jones (JAC)
Rostership: 10 percent
Coaches love Zay Jones. They always have. That hasn’t changed in Jacksonville, where the team is using lots of three-receiver sets deploying the same three guys (Jones, Christian Kirk, and Marvin Jones) over and over. That sort of usage makes the team’s passing attack a little easier to analyze. Doug Pederson, if you’re reading: Thank you.
Jones was worth rostering before he went off in Week 3 against the Chargers to the tune of ten catches, 85 yards, and a touchdown. Jones led the Jaguars in targets and target per route run (34.4 percent). He’s mostly seeing short and intermediate targets, but that’s fine by us (I speak for PPR league members only). Jacksonville’s commitment to the pass in neutral game script should continue generating targets for Jones. He should certainly be rostered in 12-team leagues with multiple flex spots.
Other receivers to roster
Treylon Burks (45 percent): If you purchased tickets to the Burks Breakout in Week 3, they are redeemable in Week 4. The rookie has been ramped up all the way to a full complement of routes (97 percent against the Raiders). Maybe the targets aren’t far behind. While a Titans offense ranked 27th in neutral pass rate and dead last in first-down pass rate over expected probably won’t generate a glut of wideout targets, Burks should suffice as a WR3 option now that he’s an every-down player.
Richie James (6 percent): James, incredibly, is second on the Giants in expected receiving fantasy points and second (by a small margin) in air yards. He only trails Sterling Shepard, who is now done for the year with an ACL injury. Unlike Kadarius Toney, James has clearly earned the trust of Brian Daboll and his coaching staff. That means something. In the short term, he could very well be the team’s de facto No. 1 receiver. That should at least offer a fantasy floor until Toney and/or Wan’Dale Robinson possibly take the role from him when they recover from their respective injuries. Only in your worst nightmares did you envision starting James over D.J. Moore. That’s exactly where you are headed into Week 4. Not even Freddy Krueger would be so cruel.
George Pickens (40 percent): The rookie’s dawg factor was on full display last week against the Browns. Pickens’ miraculous sideline catch was part of a three-catch, 39-yard performance. Importantly, he was targeted seven times with an average depth of target of 14.3. Like Doubs, Pickens could be well on his way to forcing himself into the WR2 role in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, the Steelers are 21st in neutral pass rate and Diontae Johnson remains a walking, talking target vacuum. Mitchell Trubisky’s aggressiveness rating -- fourth highest in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats -- could be a boon for Pickens. He makes sense as a pick-up for receiver-needy managers.
Rondale Moore (17 percent): Dortch’s early-season involvement could portend good things for Moore, who should take over slot duties when he’s recovered from his serious hamstring injury. Kyler Murray is supporting two top-24 receivers through three weeks.
Mack Hollins (2 percent): The Raiders’ leading receiver after three weeks, Hollins is running routes on basically every Vegas drop back and in Week 3 with Hunter Renfrow shelved, caught eight of nine targets for 158 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. Hollins had a 60-yard grab and a 48-yarder late in the game. He was weirdly unstoppable. It’s tough to be bullish on Hollins with Renfrow slated to return to the Vegas lineup. Hollins has been targeted on a horrific 14 percent of his routes through three games. I’d rather have Zay Jones or Doubs.
Greg Dortch (17 percent): I don’t know what I have to do to make you, like me, Dortchpilled. Arizona’s slot receiver (for now) is a top-24 fantasy receiver. He’s second among Cardinals pass catchers in receptions and receiving yards behind Marquise Brown. If Rondale Moore (hamstring) remains sidelined in Week 4, Dortch should be started in 12-team leagues with 3-4 wideout spots.
K.J. Osborn (6 percent): Osborn is among the beneficiaries of opposing defenses making every effort to slow down Justin Jefferson (it’s worked, as Jefferson drafters might know). Osborn is fresh off a 5/73/1 performance against the Lions, as he ran a route on 78.5 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and caught two critical passes late in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning score. The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski said Osborn’s two big receptions “are becoming a feature of the Vikings offense, not a bug.” Two-thirds of his Week 3 routes originated in the slot -- a marked increase over his Week 1-2 slot usage. Minnesota’s offense, now seventh in pass rate over expected, should be able to support two -- maybe three -- fantasy-viable pass catchers. Osborn isn’t the worst waiver pick-up in deeper formats.
Tight End
| Priority | Player | Team | % Rostered |
| 1. | David Njoku | CLE | 50% |
| 2. | Tyler Conklin | NYJ | 21% |
| 3. | Evan Engram | JAC | 26% |
| 4. | Robert Tonyan | GB | 29% |
| 5. | Logan Thomas | WAS | 15% |
David Njoku (CLE)
Rostership: 50 percent
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski all but told fantasy managers not to get too wild eyed about Njoku’s career Week 3 performance against the Steelers. Njoku was finally, at long last, deployed as a pass-catching weapon last Thursday, running a route on 81.8 percent of Jacoby Brissett‘s drop backs and catching nine of ten targets for 89 yards and a touchdown.
Stefanski said the next day that Njoku’s usage in Cleveland’s offense would hinge entirely on the opponent’s coverage schemes. That might explain meager production through the season’s first two games. And it likely means Njoku won’t be a reliable starting fantasy tight end. The Browns, sadly, value him as a blocker. It’s enough to make you cry. Still, he should be rostered in most 12-team leagues just in case the Browns see no choice but to use their hyper-athletic tight end as a key part of their passing offense. In Week 4, Njoku goes against an Atlanta defense allowing the fourth most tight end receptions (19).
Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
Rostership: 21 percent
Conklin after three weeks leads all NFL tight ends in pass routes. He’s fifth in tight end targets. He’s seventh in tight end yardage.
Conk Daddy, as the zoomers are calling him, is doing it all through sheer volume. His dismal 1.05 yards per route run ranks 23rd among tight ends. Like the rest of the Jets offense, Conklin has been horribly inefficient. Thankfully that hasn’t mattered for fantasy purposes: Conklin, who wasn’t drafted in most 12-team leagues, is the No. 3 tight end in PPR formats.
New York’s pass-at-all-costs offensive formula could soon be thrown to the wayside with Zach Wilson (knee) returning to the starting lineup. Last year, the Jets’ offensive pace slowed to a crawl and their offense became decidedly more run-heavy with Wilson under center. The team knows a pass-heavy attack with Wilson at the helm would lead to a half dozen interceptions or near-interceptions a game. Conklin’s volume-driven fantasy floor would probably disappear if Joe Flacco loses the starting gig.
Other tight ends to roster
Evan Engram (26 percent): Engram, highlighted in this space last Tuesday, would have had a sparkling Week 3 stat line if his touchdown hadn’t been called back. I’m not upset; stop saying I’m upset. Against the Chargers, Engram again had a strong route participation rate (80 percent) but caught just one of three targets for nine yards. Cue the sad streaming tight end trombone, a decidedly overused instrument. Engram still profiles as a usable fantasy option in an offense guided by the vastly improved Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville’s early-down passing should make the Jags fun for fantasy all season.
Robert Tonyan (29 percent): Tonyan is slowly but surely being integrated into the Packers’ passing offense. His Week 3 showing against the Bucs was highly encouraging, featuring six receptions on seven targets for 35 yards and a monster 35 percent target per route run rate. If his Week 3 route participation rate of 55 percent eventually climbs into the 70s or 80s, Tonyan could be an every-week starter in 12-team formats. He can be left on the wire in 10-team leagues.
Logan Thomas (15 percent): Thomas has seen his route participation ramp up over the past two weeks. That’s nice, but he will remain the fourth option in Washington’s passing offense even with a full complement of routes. Conklin and Engram, among others, are superior options off the waiver wire. Thomas is a sneaky add in tight end premium formats.
Kicker
Austin Siebert (DET)
Rostership: 3 percent
Is it easy to tout a kicker who missed two of his three field goal attempts in a crushing Week 3 loss? It’s not. Nevertheless, I persist. Siebert fits the kicker process quite well in Week 4, with the Lions listed as six-point home favorites against a Seahawks team allowing the second most field goal tries (9) through three weeks.
Detroit as of this writing has the second highest implied total (27.5) of Week 4. Seattle’s defense has been shredded through the air and on the ground. Jared Goff and the Lions should have little trouble moving the ball up and down the field, hopefully generating multiple field goal tries for Siebert. The hope is that he’ll actually make them.
Other kickers to roster
Dustin Hopkins (55 percent): Hopkins’ opportunity has been limited thanks to a boatload of negative game script over the past couple of weeks. He’s in a good spot in Week 4: LA is a six-point favorite against the miserable Texans. They sport an implied total of 26.5 points, the third highest of Week 4. Houston has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to kickers through Week 3. Assuming Justin Herbert continues playing through his agonizing rib issue, Hopkins could (finally) be in line for a solid outing.
Cade York (18 percent): This is my weekly plea for fantasy managers to consider the big-footed York, who in Week 4 gets to kick in the friendly confines of the Mercedes Benz dome with his team entering as a three-point favorite. He fits the process nicely. The rookie has made all six of his field goal attempts through three weeks. Atlanta, meanwhile, has allowed multiple field goal tries in two of its three contests. The Browns shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball against a Falcons defense giving up the fifth highest EPA per play.