The NFL Week 6 Worksheet

It’s hard to believe that we’re already in Week 6, but here we are. The fantasy points keep coming in buckets in 2018 and the passing volume just isn’t slowing down. So far through five weeks, we’ve already had eight different games in which a quarterback has attempted 55 or more passes this season. Last year that number was just three and the most we’ve seen in an NFL season over the past decade is 11. Week 6 is also another two-team bye week with the Saints and Lions resting, so get those guys out of lineups.

For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.

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All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights

Eagles @ Giants

Philadelphia	Rank	@	NY Giants	Rank
-3		Spread	3
24.0		Implied Total	21.0
20.6	25	Points/Gm	20.8	23
20.8	7	Points All./Gm	25.6	19
69.4	5	Plays/Gm	60.4	28
61.6	12	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.6	13
36.0%	23	Rush%	32.5%	29
64.0%	10	Pass%	67.6%	4
32.1%	2	Opp. Rush %	43.8%	28
67.9%	31	Opp. Pass %	56.2%	5

• These two teams have gone over the game total in five consecutive meetings, averaging a combined 54.6 points per game over that span.
• The Giants have trailed for 73.2 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league. The Eagles rank 30th (68.9 percent).
• Opponents have scored on 50 percent (25-of-50) of their possessions against the Giants, the second-highest rate in the league ahead of only Atlanta (51 percent).
• The Eagles have scored on just 33.3 percent (19-of-57) of their possessions, 25th in the league. They scored on 42.8 percent of their possessions in 2017, which ranked 7th in the league.
• Zach Ertz is the first tight end to have double-digit targets in each of the first five games of a season.
• Opposing wide receivers have accounted for 65.7 percent of the fantasy points scored against the Eagles, the highest rate in the league.
• Saquon Barkley joins Kareem Hunt and Adrian Peterson as the only players to have 100-yards from scrimmage in each of first five career games played.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Zach Ertz: The Giants have not been the punching bag for every tight end in the league this season, allowing a league-low 15 receptions to the position through five weeks, but the best tight end they have faced on the season is Ben Watson. Ertz is a different animal and the feature receiving target for his team, leading the position in targets (58), catches (41) and yards (437) on the season.
• Odell Beckham: He’s third in the NFL in target volume and coming off his best game of the season, catching four passes that gained 17 or more yards. He now runs into the premier matchup for opposing wide receiver play as the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points (23.2) per game to opposing lead wideouts to begin the season.
• Saquon Barkley: Rushing yardage should be thin here as the Eagles are allowing just 5.4 rushing points per game to opposing backfields (second), but Barkley should still stack yardage out of the backfield as he’s averaging 14.1 receiving points per game.
• Sterling Shepard: We’re tentatively approaching things with the idea that Evan Engram won’t return to the lineup on a short week and he’s only practicing in a limited fashion to begin the week. If that holds true and Engram is out once again, Shepard has 22.4 percent of the team targets over the past three weeks and has scored a touchdown in all four meetings versus the Eagles in his career, including catching 18-of-26 targets for 272 yards and two scores against this secondary a year ago.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Carson Wentz: He’s progressed each week for fantasy, finishing as the QB22, QB15 and QB8 over his three games since his return, but the Giants have been surprisingly strong out of the gates against quarterbacks this season, allowing just one to finish higher than QB16 despite facing Cam Newton and Drew Brees the past two weeks.
• Wendell Smallwood/Corey Clement: Both are options with Jay Ajayi now out for the season. I would give the immediate edge to Smallwood heads up since he’s already been the RB10, RB34 and RB14 over the past three games and Clement is coming off of a quad injury. Clement should also have FLEX appeal if he’s good to go as the Giants are 28^th in receiving points allowed to backfields and opposing backs have accounted for 80 percent of the touchdowns versus the Giants, the highest rate in the league.
• Eli Manning: He’s been strong in two of the past three games and has had a lot of recent success in this matchup. Manning has been a top-12 scoring quarterback in three of the four meetings with the Philadelphia defense under Jim Schwartz with three or more passing touchdowns in three of those games.

Bust (underperformance)

• Alshon Jeffery: The targets will still be there to keep him as a WR3 option as he’s drawn 17 targets since returning to the lineup. But he managed just eight total catches versus the Giants a year ago in two games while Janoris Jenkins has found his stride after a slow start, pushing DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and Devin Funchess all outside of the top-30 scorers in each of the past three weeks.
• Nelson Agholor: He just hasn’t found any production this season, posting 45 yards or less in four of five games. He totaled just 69 yards in two games versus the Giants a year ago and New York has been strong to start, allowing just one opposing wideout to catch more than five passes in a game to begin the season.

Buccaneers @ Falcons

Tampa Bay	Rank	@	Atlanta	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
27.0		Implied Total	30.5
28.0	6	Points/Gm	26.6	10
34.8	32	Points All./Gm	32.6	31
62.2	22	Plays/Gm	64.2	17
63.8	17	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.2	22
36.6%	21	Rush%	35.8%	25
63.5%	12	Pass%	64.2%	8
35.3%	5	Opp. Rush %	37.5%	9
64.7%	28	Opp. Pass %	62.5%	24

• These teams have averaged 55.2 combined points over their past five meetings in Atlanta.
• The Buccaneers are allowing the most fantasy points to skill players (101.5) per game while Atlanta ranks 30th (92.9 points).
• The Falcons are the first team to allow 37 or more points in three straight games since the Raiders in 2012.
• 39.2 percent of the drives against the Falcons have resulted in a touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
• Opposing teams have converted a league-high 55.4 percent of their third downs versus the Falcons and their average yardage needed on third downs is a league-low 5.9 yards.
• The Tampa Bay backfield is averaging 67.3 yards from scrimmage per game, the fewest in the league. The next lowest backfield (Arizona) is averaging 91.6 yards per game.
• In 12 career games versus the Buccaneers, Julio Jones averaged 6.9 receptions for 117.8 yards with 10 touchdown receptions. He’s gone over 100-yards in seven of those games and been a top-5 fantasy scorer in six of those games.
• In the six games in which he has faced Tampa Bay at home in his career, Jones has caught 46-of-60 targets for 813 yards (135.5 YPG) and six touchdowns.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Julio Jones: He’s now gone 62-straight regular season receptions without a touchdown, but this is a spot that has regularly awakened his touchdown slumber. Tampa Bay has allowed every lead wide receiver to reach the end zone this season.
• Matt Ryan: He has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game in those six games mentioned above with Jones at home against the Bucs. Tampa Bay is dead last in just about any category you can name versus the pass, but the big ones are them ranking 32^nd in yards per attempt (9.4), yards per game (370.0) and touchdown rate (8.3 percent) allowed to start the year.
• Mike Evans: He has six or more catches in four straight games for the first time in his career and has a great track record tormenting Atlanta, averaging 18.9 points per game against them with a touchdown in five of those games.
• Jameis Winston: His first start comes in a dream spot. He has finished as a top-12 scorer in four of five career games against the Falcons, passing for three or more touchdowns in each of their past three meetings while Atlanta is hemorrhaging points to passers, allowing the QB7, QB1, QB9 and QB5 over their past four games.
• Tevin Coleman: He’s had 20, 17 and 17 touches in the three games that Devonta Freeman has missed, but has had only one one week in which he was higher than an RB3. That should change here as Tampa Bay ranks 22^nd in yards from scrimmage (151.0 yards) and 28^th in points (31.3) per game allowed to backfields.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Calvin Ridley: He is always going to go as his touchdown production goes as he has six or fewer targets in every game but one on the year, but he stays in play as an upside WR3 option in these types of matchups, coming along for the ride in a game in which Ryan should thrive.
• Mohamed Sanu: He’s been a top-30 scorer in each of the past three weeks with seven or more targets in each of those outings while the Bucs secondary is giving to all pass catchers.
• DeSean Jackson: He’s gone over 100-yards in three of the first four games of the season, while Atlanta has allowed multiple top-30 wideouts in each of the past two weeks.
• Chris Godwin: He’s a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent WR3 option, but in a game that should feature a plethora of scoring opportunities, this are the games to chase that scoring upside as he has five targets inside of the 10-yard line this season while the rest of the team has combined for five themselves.

Bust (underperformance)

• Tampa Bay RBs: What will crack first, the movable force that is the Atlanta defense defending the running back position versus the stationary object that is the Tampa Bay backfield? Atlanta has allowed a 20-point running back in every game this season. Ronald Jones played 20 snaps in his Week 4 debut with 11 touches but managed 28 total yards on those touches. While those touches and snaps came in a blowout loss, we still have no idea who is going to get goal line touches in this backfield between he and Peyton Barber, leaving each as nothing but dart throws based solely on the matchup only to prop up their use in lineups.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Austin Hooper: He’s a streaming option once again and is coming off a career-high 12 targets and nine receptions a week ago. Tampa Bay is the only team to allow a top-12 scoring tight end in every game this season and are allowing a league-high 103.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
• Ito Smith: He played 30 snaps in Week 4 when Freeman last missed and has a rushing touchdown in each of the past two weeks. He should find his way to 10-12 touches in a potential shooutout.
• Cameron Brate/ O.J. Howard: Howard is dealing with a sprained MCL and was expected to miss a few weeks, but was a full particapnt in practice on Friday. He still may be limited on Sunday, which keeps Brate as an option, although muddles the field here. Brate has scored in each of the past two games while he and Winston have always had a touchdown connection as Brate ranks fifth at the position in touchdowns since 2015. Winston targeted Brate 14.3 percent of the time a year ago while Ryan Fitzpatrick targeted Brate just 9.3 percent of the time.

Chargers @ Browns

LA Chargers	Rank	@	Cleveland	Rank
-1		Spread	1
22.5		Implied Total	21.5
27.4	8	Points/Gm	22.8	20
26.0	22	Points All./Gm	22.6	12
61.4	23	Plays/Gm	73.8	2
59.0	4	Opp. Plays/Gm	75.6	32
41.0%	14	Rush%	42.6%	12
59.0%	19	Pass%	57.5%	21
40.0%	19	Opp. Rush %	37.6%	11
60.0%	14	Opp. Pass %	62.4%	22

• The Browns lead the NFL with 15 takeaways through five weeks. That’s more takeaways than they’ve had in each of the past two seasons (13 each).
• The Browns are the only team in the league without an offensive touchdown in the first quarter this season and are just one of two teams (Kansas City) that have not allowed a first quarter touchdown on defense this season.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Jarvis Landry has caught 18-of-34 targets (52.9 percent) and is averaging 1.46 yards per route run from the slot this season. He has caught 11-of-15 targets (73.3 percent) with 2.45 yards per route run on the perimeter.
• David Njoku has the most targets on the season (34) that has yet to receive a target in the red zone.
• 41.5 percent of Carlos Hyde‘s fantasy points have been scored inside of the 5-yard line this season, trailing only LeGarrette Blount (43.4 percent) for the highest rate in the league among running backs.
• The Chargers backfields in averaging 201.2 yards from scrimmage per game, the most in the league.
• Melvin Gordon (28.7 percent) and Austin Ekeler (19.8 percent) have combined for 48.5 percent of the Chargers offensive yardage, the highest share for a backfield combo in the league.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Melvin Gordon: He’s fourth among running backs in yards from scrimmage (595) and has scored a touchdown in four straight games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Keenan Allen: He has yet to provide that spike week since Week 1 but is still receiving nine targets per game while the Browns still have allowed the second-most points to lead wideouts on the season despite holding John Brown to 58 yards a week ago.
• Austin Ekeler: He’s been a top-24 scorer in four of five games this season and leads all running backs with more than 15 touches on the season in yards per touch (8.5 yards).
• Jarvis Landry: He’s managed 103 yards over the two starts with Mayfield despite the Browns running so many extra plays, but he still averages 29.8 percent of the Cleveland targets per game with double-digit targets in four of five games played.
• David Njoku: The scoring opportunities have yet to come and he’s left some meat on the bone with drops, but he’s now totaled 18 targets over the past two weeks with double-digit fantasy points at a depressed position, putting him in the TE1 mix.

Bust (underperformance)

• Carlos Hyde: He’s still averaging 21.2 touches per week, so you take that volume and play for the scoring opportunities, but we caught a glimpse of his floor when fails to score a touchdown a week ago as he’s managed just six receptions all season. The Chargers rank eighth in rushing points allowed (9.8) per game to backfields on the season.
• Philip Rivers: Heading east for an early start against a defense that has allowed just one top-12 scoring week on the season, Cleveland ranks third in passing points allowed per attempt on the season. He’s not someone you have to stream for, but that is enough to have QB2 expectations for Rivers this week.
• Baker Mayfield: The Chargers are 28^th in yards per pass attempt (8.6) allowed on the season, but it’s hard to push Mayfield up as a higher-end QB2 this week when he’s been the QB15 and QB22 in his two starts while having the most possessions (33) in the NFL over that span.
• Mike Williams: He has seven total targets over the past two weeks, leaving him as a touchdown dependent wideout in a game where his quarterback could be under his seasonal production to this point.
• Duke Johnson: He played a season-high 51.2 percent of the snaps last week, but still managed just six touches. He’s just not as reliable for volume as other backs of his archetype until he’s more involved in the offense.

Colts @ Jets

Indianapolis	Rank	@	NY Jets	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
21.3		Implied Total	23.8
23.6	15	Points/Gm	24.6	14
27.6	27	Points All./Gm	21.0	8
71.4	3	Plays/Gm	59.4	29
69.8	27	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.0	26
28.3%	32	Rush%	46.1%	5
71.7%	1	Pass%	53.9%	28
38.7%	16	Opp. Rush %	37.7%	12
61.3%	17	Opp. Pass %	62.3%	21

• The 323 rushing yards by the Jets last week were the second-most they’ve ever had in a game (333 yards in Week 5 of 1972).
• Isaiah Crowell‘s 219 rushing yards were the most in Jets history, surpassing Thomas Jones’ 210 rushing yards in 2009.
• Wide receivers have been targeted just 49.2 percent of the time against the Colts, the lowest rate in the league.
• Wide receivers have been targeted 67.0 percent of the time against the Jets, the highest rate in the league.
• The Colts have run on 23.2 percent of their plays the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league over that span.
• Andrew Luck is just the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 59 times or more in back-to-back games.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Andrew Luck: His shoulder shouldn’t be a concern anymore for fantasy purposes as the Colts are throwing the ball more than anyone in the league. Volume isn’t everything for the position, but this type of volume is tangible as Luck has been a top-5 option in each of the past two weeks. As a road dog, his high passing volume should continue.
• Eric Ebron: He’s already matched his career-high with five touchdowns on the season and is averaging a gaudy 12 targets per game over the past three weeks with Jack Doyle sidelined. Ebron has been a top-12 scorer in four of five games this season and although the Jets are tied for the league-low in catches allowed to tight ends, they have not faced a single top-12 fantasy tight end on the season.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Bilal Powell: He has out-touched Crowell on the season (69-63) and once again last week (20-16) but has now failed to catch a pass in two of his past three games, which he needs for higher fantasy output since Crowell has a lock on the scoring opportunities. If Crowell does miss the game, then Powell slides into being a strong RB2 option as opposing backfields have averaged 32 touches for 154.3 total yards versus the Colts over the past three weeks.
• Nyheim Hines: He’s had more touches than the previous week in three consecutive games and has set new highs in yards from scrimmage in each of the past two weeks. The Jets rank 24^th in receptions (6.8) allowed to opposing backfields.

Bust (underperformance)

• Sam Darnold: He’s thrown for 200-yards just once on the season and asking him to throw three touchdowns again on just 10 completed passes is a stretch.
• Quincy Enunwa: He ran just 31.6 percent of his routes from the slot last week after running 69 percent of his routes from the slot through four games with the Jets running at will and not playing three wideouts on the field. That could happen here once again, but even if the Jets do throw more, Enunwa has been a WR4 or lower in three straight games.
• Robby Anderson: He’s going to have moments like last week, but they are going to be too hard to pin down in advance as he still has three or fewer receptions in every game this season and the Colts are second in the league in rate of completed passes to gain 20 or more yards.
• Isaiah Crowell: He failed to practice all week and is a pure game-time deciscion for Sunday. You can slide him as a FLEX play if he’s active, but his workload is a concern considering he has already been out-touched by Powell to date.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Chester Rogers/Ryan Grant: The Colts are passing so much, that we can dabble on their ancillary pieces if we need to against a Jets team that faces 26.8 targets (30^th) to opposing wideouts per week. Both Rogers and Grant were WR3 fantasy options a week ago with Rogers receiving a career-high 11 targets and Grant having at least seven targets in three of five games on the season.

Seahawks @ Raiders (in London)

Seattle	Rank	@	Oakland	Rank
-3		Spread	3
25.3		Implied Total	22.3
23.2	17	Points/Gm	21.4	22
22.8	14	Points All./Gm	29.8	30
60.6	27	Plays/Gm	67.4	8
62.4	14	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.2	5
47.2%	2	Rush%	36.8%	20
52.8%	31	Pass%	63.2%	13
43.6%	27	Opp. Rush %	43.9%	29
56.4%	6	Opp. Pass %	56.1%	4

• The Seahawks have had a 100-yard rusher in three consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 15-17 of the 2012 season.
• 87.5 percent (56-of-64) of Chris Carson‘s rushing attempts have gained positive yardage, the second-highest rate for all backs with 50 or more rushing attempts behind Kerryon Johnson (88 percent).
• The Raiders are allowing 10.3 yards per pass attempt over their past three games, the highest rate in the league over that span.
• Oakland is allowing 15.5 yards per completion over that span, the most in the league.
• Russell Wilson ranks fifth in passing points per attempt (.545) but ranks 30th in pass attempts per game (28.4).
• Wilson is the just the second quarterback this season to have fewer than 30 pass attempts in three consecutive starts, joining Ryan Tannehill.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Chris Carson: He’s posted 124 and 127 yards from scrimmage over his past two games on 34 and 20 touches while the Raiders are 29^th in rushing points (17.0) allowed per game to backfields and 24^th in yards from scrimmage (156.2) allowed per game to the position.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Russell Wilson: The Raiders are a pass defense to target and have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game but one so far, but this sets up as another game in which Wilson will have to remain hyper-efficient on lower-end volume as Seattle shouldn’t be pushed off of their recent run-first game planning.
• Tyler Lockett: He’s living a bit off having a touchdown of 39-yards or longer in three of five games, but that’s the kind of upside he has. Oakland has also allowed four touchdowns of 35-yards or longer on the season, tied for the second-most in the league. Even if the long touchdowns dry up, Lockett still has received 23.4 percent of the team targets in the two games since Baldwin’s return.
• Doug Baldwin: He’s had hollow opportunity over the past two weeks and Seattle is passing at such a low rate that he’s an uncomfortable start, but Oakland has allowed WR3 or better weeks to interior options such as Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Emmanuel Sanders and Cooper Kupp on the season while allowing three touchdowns from the slot against the Miami wideouts in Week 3.
• Marshawn Lynch: He’s coming off a season-low 11 touches, but Seattle isn’t a team that has been running away from anyone on the scoreboard this season. Even with the #RevengeGame narrative, Seattle ranks 22^nd in rushing yards (96.6) allowed per game to backfields and have allowed a top-20 scorer in four of five games this season.
• Derek Carr: He has one or fewer touchdown passes in every game but one this season, but he still ranks 8^th at the position in yards per attempt (8.1) and fifth in passing yards. Seattle has faced three run-first teams on the season (DAL, ARI and CHI), but have allowed 329 passing yards to Case Keenum and 321 yards passing to Jared Goff outside of those weeks.
• Amari Cooper: The Cooper-Coaster was predictably down once again last week, but we’ve done a good job here on being in and out on him at the right moments for the most part. This is a week where we can get back on against a Seattle secondary that has allowed five top-24 wideouts in the three games they’ve played outside of facing the lackluster Dallas and Arizona groups.
• Jordy Nelson: He doesn’t have the ceiling of Cooper since he’s been held to 48-yards or fewer in four of five games, but he has scored a touchdown in three straight games and has out-targeted Cooper 4-2 inside of the 10-yard line on the season.
• Jared Cook: He’s been the Isaiah Crowell of tight ends this season, having caught 17-of-25 targets for 290 yards in two games, and then 13-of-16 targets for 100 yards in the other three combined. With tight end being so rough, you live with the spikes in production and Cook has a massive eight targets inside of the 10-yard line so far, which leads the league.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Mike Davis: He still managed 12 touches playing behind Carson and came in for all three rushing attempts inside of the 10-yard line a week ago. Oakland has allowed multiple top-24 running backs in each of their past two games and multiple RB3 or better backs in three of their five games this season.

Panthers @ Washington

Carolina	Rank	@	Washington	Rank
1		Spread	-1
22.0		Implied Total	23.0
26.0	12	Points/Gm	20.8	24
22.8	13	Points All./Gm	21.8	10
64.8	15	Plays/Gm	65.2	14
58.0	3	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.0	6
47.1%	3	Rush%	44.8%	8
52.9%	30	Pass%	55.2%	25
35.8%	6	Opp. Rush %	38.3%	14
64.2%	27	Opp. Pass %	61.7%	19

• The Panthers have trailed for just 23.1 percent of their offensive snaps, the second-lowest rate in the league outside of the Chiefs (13.5 percent).
• Panthers running backs average 2.66 yards before contact on their carries, the highest rate for a backfield.
• Carolina is averaging -1.04 yards per play than their in-game opponents, which is 31st in the league, ahead of only Buffalo (-1.67 yards).
• Washington running backs average 31.5 touches per game, trailing only New England (32.8).
• Opposing running backs average 21.5 touches per game against Carolina, the third-fewest in the league.
• After allowing just five pass plays of 20 or more yards through three games, Washington allowed seven in Week 5.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Christian McCaffrey: He’s been an RB1 in each of his past two games despite only receiving 13.6 percent of the team targets, cementing him as one of the of the highest-floor players at this position. He already has 90 touches through four games after totaling 53 through four games as a rookie.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Cam Newton: He has multiple touchdown passes in each of the past three games but will be on the road against a Washington defense that still ranks 7^th in passing yardage allowed per game (240.0) after running into a buzzsaw in New Orleans, leaving Newton to do his damage more so on the ground than through the air.
• Jordan Reed: Coming off a season-low two targets, he may be forced volume by default if Washington’s receiving group remains banged up. Carolina has allowed two TE1 weeks to Austin Hooper (5-59-1) and Tyler Eifert (6-74-0) on the season outside of facing the Cowboys and Giants without Evan Engram.

Bust (underperformance)

• Devin Funchess: His average rank with Olsen in the lineup over the past two years has been WR47 while averaging 6.0 targets per game in those weeks.
• Greg Olsen: The bar is low for relevancy at the tight end position, but Olsen’s usage in his first game back from missing the past four games is a question mark. A year ago, he played 33 percent of the snaps and received just four targets in his first game off injury.
• Alex Smith: Carolina is 25^th in the league on passing yardage (294.3) allowed per game but Smith has been in the bottom-half of quarterback scoring in three straight games since Week 1 and will enter the week with injury concerns surrounding all of Chris Thompson, Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson.
• Adrian Peterson: He and the Washington offense have been as Jekyll and Hyde as anyone to begin the season. He’s dealing with a dislocated shoulder and has alternated usable weeks as you’re forced to nail the game script with him being involved. The Panthers have led for the bulk of their snaps this season and have faced the second-fewest rushing attempts (17.3) from backfields per game.
• Jamison Crowder: He has 20.3 percent of the team targets over the past two games after 10.5 percent through the first two games, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury and his only usable game so far has been when he found the end zone.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Kapri Bibbs: With Chris Thompson out and Adrian Peterson playing with an injured shoulder, Bibbs is a floor option for teams looking to fill a void.

Bills @ Texans

Buffalo	Rank	@	Houston	Rank
9.5		Spread	-9.5
15.8		Implied Total	25.3
12.6	32	Points/Gm	23.0	18
23.6	17	Points All./Gm	24.8	18
60.8	25	Plays/Gm	71.0	4
64.2	18	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.4	23
46.4%	4	Rush%	40.9%	16
53.6%	29	Pass%	59.2%	17
38.3%	13	Opp. Rush %	41.6%	22
61.7%	20	Opp. Pass %	58.4%	11

• Deshaun Watson has 300-passing yards and 30 yards rushing in four straight games, the longest such streak in NFL history.
• Watson has accounted for 34.6 percent of the Houston rushing yardage, the highest rate for a quarterback in the league.
• 54.9 percent of the fantasy output scored by Josh Allen has come from rushing output, the highest rate for all starting quarterbacks.
• The Bills 609 net passing yards are the fewest through five games of a season since the 2008 Raiders (543 yards).
• Houston has scored a touchdown on 36.4 percent (8-of-22) of their red zone possessions, 31st in the league.
• After allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 40 percent (10-of-25) of their possessions through two weeks (32nd), the Bills have allowed a touchdown on 9.1 percent (3-of-33) of drives the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Deshaun Watson: The line for this game was originally held up by his status after taking a pounding running the ball on Sunday Night. Maybe him being banged up reigns in his activity on the ground, but if he’s good to go, then he gets the green light. The Bills have come around to play much better defense after a rocky start, but Watson is a large home favorite that has established himself as one of the highest floors at the position with his legs and passing production, finishing as a top-10 scorer in each of the past four games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• DeAndre Hopkins: He has double-digit targets in every game this season with at least 86 receiving yards in each of his past four games, but the Bills are allowing the sixth-fewest points to lead wideouts on the season with no lead perimeter option finishing higher than WR28 on the season.
• Will Fuller: He was good to go last week, running 52 pass routes, but inevitably was due to hit a bump in the road given he had scored in seven straight games playing with Watson. With Tre’Davious White occupying Hopkins, Fuller should bounce back with more opportunities than the three targets he had a week ago.
• Keke Coutee: He’s being used an extension of the run game, getting 15 and seven targets the past two weeks with an average depth of target of just 5.0 yards downfield. This gives him a usable floor even without a touchdown while two of the three highest scoring weeks against Buffalo this season have come from receivers who primarily operate on the interior.

Bust (underperformance)

• LeSean McCoy: He had a season-high 26 touches last week after having 29 over his first three games played. Buffalo will have to maintain neutral game script on the road as he didn’t have more than 13 touches in a game prior while Houston just held Ezekiel Elliott to the third-lowest rushing performance he’s had in his career.
• Josh Allen: He’s all rushing production at this stage as he’s the only quarterback with more rushing points (31.5) than passing points (27.9) on the season.
• Houston RBs: With Lamar Miller active, but held out a week ago, he should be back in the lineup this week, but Alfred Blue has more than likely worked his way into making this a committee to some degree on a backfield that ranks 27^th in combined yards from scrimmage. If Miller is out, Blue moves into RB2 status.

Cardinals @ Vikings

Arizona	Rank	@	Minnesota	Rank
10.5		Spread	-10.5
16.3		Implied Total	26.8
13.0	31	Points/Gm	22.6	21
22.4	11	Points All./Gm	26.2	23
49.4	32	Plays/Gm	67.2	9
73.0	31	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.8	10
40.1%	17	Rush%	28.6%	31
59.9%	16	Pass%	71.4%	2
47.7%	32	Opp. Rush %	40.8%	20
52.3%	1	Opp. Pass %	59.2%	13

• Adam Thielen is the first player in in the Super Bowl Era to have 100-yards receiving in each of the first five games of a season.
• Thielen is the first player to have 100-yards receiving in five straight games since Odell Beckham in 2015.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Thielen leads the league in routes run per game (49.0).
• Kirk Cousins is the only quarterback in the league that has accounted for 100 percent of his team’s offensive touchdowns.
• The Cardinals are the only team to allow more rushing touchdowns (eight) than passing touchdowns (five) on the season.
• Arizona has a -63 rate in offensive first downs gained without penalty than their opponents, the worst differential in the league. The next lowest team (Buffalo) is -33.
• 27.6 percent of Josh Rosen‘s pass attempts have been on throws 15-yards or further downfield, which is the second-highest rate for all passers with 50 or more attempts on the season (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Sam Bradford‘s rate of those attempts was 15.0 percent, 28th from the same group.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Rosen has been under pressure for 47.7 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate for any quarterback to have at least 25 percent of his team’s dropbacks.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Adam Thielen: He’s on pace to shatter the single-season target and reception records, so he’s due to hit a bump in the road at some point. The Cardinals have allowed just one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver this season but have allowed five or more catches to three of the past four primary interior wide receivers they’ve faced, so he should still draw the most favorable outlook of this receiving unit.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Kirk Cousins: He’s second in the league in passing yards while the Cardinals have allowed 18 or more points to three of the five quarterbacks they have faced to begin the season.
• Stefon Diggs: He’s been more of a possession guy since the start of the season and has a 7.3 yard average depth of target over the past three games, but he moves all around the formation enough to avoid Patrick Peterson and still has double-digit targets in each of the past four games. That target total may come down a bit this week if Arizona can’t hang with the Vikings on the road, however and as mentioned above, Arizona has been far more giving to backfields than on the back end.
• Dalvin Cook: He’s trending towards playing this week, the question will be how much? Even if he finds his way to double-digit touches, though, this is a good spot as a large hoe favorite against a soft run defense. Arizona has allowed double-digit points to eight running backs through five games.
• Kyle Rudolph: The lowest he has finished this season is TE13 and has at least five receptions in each of the past four games.

Bust (underperformance)

• David Johnson: He’s found the end zone in four of five games but has 71 yards from scrimmage or fewer in four as well. Minnesota has yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back this season and more than three receptions to just one back through five games.
• Larry Fitzgerald: He’s had three or fewer catches in each of his past four games and Rosen has targeted him on just 10 of his 55 pass attempts.
• Josh Rosen: He’s been willing to push the ball downfield heavily, but it has impacted his completion rate (49.2 percent) while he still has closed as the QB23 and the QB27 over his two starts.
• Christian Kirk: Rosen has targeted Kirk the most of any receiver with Kirk catching 9-of-12 targets for 132 yards and a score if you want to dig deep here, but he’s running nearly 60 percent of his routes on the perimeter, which is the worst part of the Minnesota defense to target.

Steelers @ Bengals

Pittsburgh	Rank	@	Cincinnati	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
25.3		Implied Total	27.8
28.6	5	Points/Gm	30.6	4
26.6	25	Points All./Gm	26.0	21
66.8	11	Plays/Gm	61.2	24
70.4	29	Opp. Plays/Gm	70.0	28
32.9%	28	Rush%	36.0%	24
67.1%	5	Pass%	64.1%	9
36.4%	7	Opp. Rush %	37.4%	8
63.6%	26	Opp. Pass %	62.6%	25

• Over the past five seasons, Ben Roethlisberger has been inside of the top-10 in fantasy scoring in just two of his past 22 road games with early start times and has thrown two or more touchdowns in just five of those games.
• Over that span, the Steelers have hit their implied team total just six times with the game total going under in 19 of those games.
• Antonio Brown was targeted on 41.9 percent of his pass routes in Week 5, the highest rate for any player with over 20 routes in a game this season.
• Brown has been a top-12 scoring receiver in just one of his seven career games visiting Cincinnati with just once touchdown scored in those games.
• The Bengals have outscored opponents by 38 points (56-18) in the fourth quarter this season, the largest gap in the league. The Steelers have been outscored by 28 points (51-23) in the fourth quarter this season (32nd).
• 41.7 percent (25-of-60) of Joe Mixon‘s rushing attempts have gone for five or more yards, which ranks third for all backs with 50 or more carries on the season. He ranked 36th in that rate a year ago at 33.2 percent.
• Mixon’s 23.0 touches per game are tied with Ezekiel Elliott for second in the league behind Todd Gurley (24.0).
• Per Pro Football Focus, A.J. Green ran a season-high 44.8 percent of his routes from the slot last week after running 27.1 percent on the season coming into the game.
• Green has scored a touchdown in five of six career home games versus the Steelers as opposed to scoring in just two of seven career games in Pittsburgh.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Andy Dalton: As strong as the perception of his season seems to be, Dalton has only finished higher than QB16 in two of five games on the season with fewer than 17 points in three games. Despite that, this should still be a great spot for him at home against a Pittsburgh defense that still ranks 31^st in passing points (21.6) per game despite their strong effort against Atlanta a week ago.
• James Conner: Outside of being a road dog, this matchup sets up well for him to be the most productive part of the Steeler offense. Conner is tied for 10^th in receptions (22) among backs and is fifth in receiving yards (239) at the position while the Bengals rank 25^th in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields (157.8 yards) and are 23^rd in receiving points allowed (14.9) per game to the position, giving Conner a safety net for a floor with upside for more given his heavy workload, handling 90.6 percent of the Pittsburgh backfield touches.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Joe Mixon: He came right back to the lineup and received 25 touches. With Giovani Bernard sidelined still, that workload won’t be compromised as a home favorite, but the one capable and consistent component of the Pittsburgh defense so far has been defending opposing backfields, allowing just 88.4 yards per scrimmage per game, which ranks third in the league.
• A.J. Green: We love when coaches scheme to cater their best players like the Bengals did last week with Green. He has started out the season with just one WR1 scoring week, but has held a tremendous floor, finishing with 17 or more points in four of his five games and posting double-digit output in all five games. He’s really taken a flamethrower to the Steelers at home, positing lines of 7-77-2, 6-132-1, and 11-224-1 the past three times these teams have played in Cincinnati. None of those were against Joe Haden, who has limited him in the past and should shadow him here. Green has been held to 51 yards or fewer in six of eight games that both he and Haden have played in.
• Tyler Boyd: His slow day last week can be attributed to playing more outside due to Green moving around more than usual and John Ross’ absence, but he is still a solid option this week against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed opposing slot receivers to catch 16-of-20 targets for 233 yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks.
• Antonio Brown: His talent and target volume are too great to run away from despite the negative peripherals. Despite his early season disconnection in efficiency, Brown still has a touchdown in four of five games and is tied for the league-lead in targets.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: After three straight 100-yard games to open the season, he’s notched just 94 yards combined over the past two weeks, but he still carries high touchdown upside, leading the team with 12 targets inside of the red zone (12) and matching the team lead for targets inside of the 10-yard line (four).

Bust (underperformance)

• Ben Roethlisberger: It’s not that we’re scared of the Bengals defense by any means, but Roethlisberger has routinely underachieved in this spot, regardless of matchup similar to Drew Brees in outdoor road games. That is why we’re handling him as a higher QB2 this week rather than a locked in QB1. His body of work in early road starts is more than just noise at this stage and when he does post strong outings in those circumstances, those have been the moments of variance.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Vance McDonald: The Steelers got us last week as McDonald ran just 19 pass routes compared to 15 for Jesse James after it was a 32-11 edge in McDonald’s favor the week prior. That complicates things as far as trust goes, but he’s still the better receiving option of the two and the Bengals are 25^th in points allowed (14.8) per game to opposing tight ends despite facing Miami and a Greg Olsen-less Panthers team in two of their five games.
• C.J. Uzomah: Despite seeing just two targets, he was the clear lead tight end a week ago, running 26 pass routes to nine for Tyler Kroft. Opposing teams have targeted tight ends 28.4 percent of the time versus the Steelers, which is the highest rate in the league. Not just empty calories, opposing tight ends have accounted for 24.5 percent of the fantasy scoring against Pittsburgh as well, which is also the highest rate in the league.

Bears @ Dolphins

Chicago	Rank	@	Miami	Rank
-3		Spread	3
22.5		Implied Total	19.5
27.8	7	Points/Gm	19.8	28
16.2	2	Points All./Gm	23.4	16
64.0	18	Plays/Gm	52.0	31
57.8	2	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.4	25
45.3%	7	Rush%	43.9%	10
54.7%	26	Pass%	56.2%	23
32.9%	3	Opp. Rush %	43.3%	26
67.1%	30	Opp. Pass %	56.7%	7

• The Dolphins average 4.6 plays per possession, the fewest in the league.
• Teams against the Bears average 5.2 plays per possession, the fewest in the league.
• Just 13.3 percent (6-of-45) of the possessions against the Bears have reached the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
• Just 5.4 percent of Ryan Tannehill‘s pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate for all full-season starting quarterbacks.
• The Bears have led for 68.1 percent of their second-half snaps this season, which trails only the Rams (75 percent) to start the season.
• The Bears are the only team that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown on the season.
• Chicago has thrown the ball on 76.5 percent (13-of-17) of their plays inside of the 10-yard line, the highest rate in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Jordan Howard: He played a season-low 54 percent of the snaps prior to the bye and the Bears had their best offensive game of the season around a game plan that didn’t involve him. That may have been a function solely of matchup and rational coaching that week, though, something that favors Howard here. Miami has battered on the ground, allowing 22-93 rushing last week to the Bengals, 36-167-2 to the Patriots, 29-107-1 to Oakland and 26-101-1 to the Titans backfields in four of their five games to start the season.
• Tarik Cohen: After just 21 touches through three games, Cohen had a career-high 21 touches for 174 yards in Week 4. Miami ranks 29^th in receiving points (16.7) allowed to backfields to begin the season and have allowed four different backs to catch five or more passes in a game.

Bust (underperformance)

• Allen Robinson: He’s running 35 percent of his routes from slot naturally, so we don’t have to discount him too greatly if you’re concerned about Xavien Howard and Miami allowing the third-fewest points to opposing WR1s on the season. What is a concern, however is that Robinson has more than 20 percent of the team targets in just one game thus far and four or fewer receptions in three of those four games.
• Mitchell Trubisky: He crushed an obvious spot at home prior to the bye which gives us some hope that he becomes a reliable streamer, so if he can come through in a weak spot this week on the road with a pedestrian team total that will go a long way.
• Trey Burton: He’s still averaging just 4.8 targets per game with four or fewer receptions in every game. Miami has been middling against opposing tight ends in bulk but have allowed just one top-12 scorer on the season (Delanie Walker) and have held Rob Gronkowski and Jared Cook to weeks at TE21 or lower in two of their past three games.
• Ryan Tannehill: He’s been the QB34 and the QB30 over the past two weeks and the QB15 or lower in four of five games. Chicago ranks 10^th in passing points allowed (14.3) per game.
• Kenyan Drake: He got back into the mix last week with 13 touches and receiving 11 targets in the passing game after having 14 through four games. He still has just 14 total rushing attempts over the past three weeks and the Bears are number one in fantasy points allowed (12.1) per game to opposing backfields and have allowed the fewest receptions (3.3) per game to the position.
• Miami WRs: Now that Tannehill has struggled, we’ve seen how low of a floor we have here with this unit. Over the past two games, Miami wideouts have combined to catch 21 passes for 187 yards with no scores and high individual scoring week of WR50.
• Taylor Gabriel: He also hit in an obvious spot where he’d be elevated but has done this to us before in spurts while having 34 yards or fewer in three of his four games. Tack on that Anthony Miller is returning to the lineup and Gabriel is back to being an all-or-nothing option.

Rams @ Broncos

LA Rams	Rank	@	Denver	Rank
-7		Spread	7
29.8		Implied Total	22.8
34.6	3	Points/Gm	20.0	27
19.6	6	Points All./Gm	26.2	24
63.4	21	Plays/Gm	65.6	12
57.0	1	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.6	16
45.4%	6	Rush%	37.5%	19
54.6%	27	Pass%	62.5%	14
37.5%	10	Opp. Rush %	42.5%	24
62.5%	23	Opp. Pass %	57.6%	9

• The Rams are averaging +1.39 yards per play than their opponents, the highest differential in the league.
• Jared Goff has completed 61.2 percent of his throws 15-yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league. League average is 42.9 percent.
• Goff is the first Rams passer to throw for 300-yards in four straight games since Kurt Warner had six straight 300-yard passing games in 2000.
• Todd Gurley leads all running backs on carries from inside of the red zone (32), inside of the 10-yard line (20) and inside of the 5-yard line (10).
• After going seven straight games without allowing a running back to reach 70-yards rushing, the Broncos have allowed three backs to have 99 or more yards rushing over the past two games.
• Denver leads the league in highest rate of rushing attempts to go for five or more yards (43.9 percent) and 10 or more yards (18.7 percent) on the season.
• The Broncos have had the lead for just 14.6 percent of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Todd Gurley: He’s been a top-10 scorer in every game this season while being first or second in scoring at this position in three of the past four games. Denver has been run all over the past two weeks. The first was by design to a degree in an attempt to make a high-powered Chiefs offense beat them on the ground rather than through splash plays, but that isn’t as much of an option here as the Rams will surely be willing to let Gurley melt the Denver defense if allowed.
• Robert Woods: He has at least 80 yards receiving or a touchdown in eight of his past 10 regular season games and has at least five catches for 80 yards in each of his past four games.
• Brandin Cooks: He’s cleared for Sunday after a scary hit last weekend and draws a defense that struggled to contain the vertical presence of Robby Anderson a week ago.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas: Both were aided by monster fourth quarters last chasing points and Keenum is still a thorn in each of their sides, but the Rams have allowed six top-24 scorers at wide receiver over their past three games.
• Phillip Lindsay: He’s been a top-30 back in all four of his complete games played and has been the leader in backfield touches in all four of those games, with 14 or more in all of those weeks.
• Jared Goff: He leads the league in passing yardage and you have to keep playing Goff weekly because the yardage is creating team scoring opportunities in mass, but Gurley’s scoring involvement has been a pesky undercutting of Goff’s ceiling as he’s now thrown two or fewer touchdowns in three games and has been QB12 or lower in all three of those games.
• Cooper Kupp: He is good to go after leaving last week’s game with a concussion. Kupp gets an unfortuante draw inside against Chris Harris, leaving him behind Woods and Cooks for a week.

Bust (underperformance)

• Case Keenum: The Rams have forced everyone to chase points and they’ve been poor at stopping the pass throughout the game, not just in jailbreak game script. We had Keenum in a similar spot like this two weeks ago and he fizzled, however. The issue is that Keenum is not Philip Rivers (17.0 points), Kirk Cousins (31.7) or Russell Wilson (19.9), the past three quarterbacks to do damage to this Rams defense.
• Royce Freeman: He’s been strong, ranking fourth in the league in runs to go for 10 or more yards (11) and having one of the highest missed tackle ratings in the league. The issue is that he doesn’t catch passes, is in timeshare with a back playing well and his team is bad, causing him to have single-digit touches in three of the past four games. If he fails to score a touchdown, you’re left with a void.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Courtland Sutton: He finally cashed in an end zone target last week, but his game was still hardly relevant with just 9.8 points and a WR45 finish. Still, he has at least six targets in three of the past four games and the Rams have allowed multiple touchdown receptions to ancillary options in Aldrick Robinson and David Moore in back-to-back weeks if you’re at the bottom of the barrel.

Ravens @ Titans

Baltimore	Rank	@	Tennessee	Rank
-3		Spread	3
22.0		Implied Total	19.0
26.4	11	Points/Gm	17.4	29
15.4	1	Points All./Gm	17.2	4
76.6	1	Plays/Gm	60.8	26
65.4	20	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.2	15
36.3%	22	Rush%	47.7%	1
63.7%	11	Pass%	52.3%	32
34.6%	4	Opp. Rush %	44.0%	30
65.4%	29	Opp. Pass %	56.0%	3

• The Ravens are first in points allowed per play (.235) while the Titans rank second (.272).
• Baltimore ranks first in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.4 yards) while Tennessee ranks sixth (6.4).
• Baltimore is allowing 4.9 fantasy points to opposing skill players per drive, the fewest in the league.
• The Titans generate on average 5.3 fantasy points per possession for skill positions, 29th in the league.
• 52.3 percent (23-of-44) of John Brown‘s targets have come on deep targets (15-plus yards), the only player over 50 percent in the league.
• The Titans are the only team in the league to allow more touchdowns from outside of the red zone (four) than inside of the red zone (three) to begin the season.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• John Brown: He managed just 58 yards last week, but he continues to get a lot of opportunity as he’s coming off a season-high 14 targets and now leads all receivers in the league in air yards. Tennessee has been strong versus his archetype of receiver, however as they are tied with Jacksonville in allowing a league-low 11 receptions to go for 20 or more yards on the season.
• Javorius Allen: He’s been an RB3 or better in every game this season to get you by in your FLEX but has a lowered ceiling against a defense that has yet to allow an RB to score and is allowing the third fewest receiving yardage (32.9) per game to the position.

Bust (underperformance)

• Marcus Mariota: He’s been the QB25 or lower in two of his three starts while facing the team that ranks second in passing points allowed (12.2) per game.
• Corey Davis: He was back to normal last week, coming in at WR57 on six targets. The Ravens got Jimmy Smith back last week and have allowed just one wideout to reach 70 yards in a game this season.
• Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis: Their setup has been poor all season long as the Titans rank last in yards created before contact for their backs, Taylor Lewan is injured and the Ravens rank second in points allowed (14.3) per game to opposing backfields on the season.
• Alex Collins: He’s now had more than 13 touches in just one game and was out-snapped last week by Allen 50-27. Tennessee has yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing running back so far and have allowed just one top-24 back on the year.
• Joe Flacco: A potentially low-scoring road game off a long overtime game against a defense that has allowed just one passer to finish higher than QB15 to begin the season.
• Michael Crabtree: He’s living in the WR3-WR4 area weekly as he has yet to reach 70 yards in a game since Week 8 of last season.
• Ravens TEs: Hayden Hurst played 21 snaps and ran 12 pass routes in his first game back from injury, but Mark Andrews led the way with 31 routes run with Maxx Williams and Nick Boyle combining for 17.

Jaguars @ Cowboys

Jacksonville	Rank	@	Dallas	Rank
-3		Spread	3
21.8		Implied Total	18.8
20.4	26	Points/Gm	16.6	30
17.2	3	Points All./Gm	19.2	5
68.8	7	Plays/Gm	58.0	30
60.4	8	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.8	19
35.5%	27	Rush%	44.8%	9
64.5%	6	Pass%	55.2%	24
41.7%	23	Opp. Rush %	42.9%	25
58.3%	10	Opp. Pass %	57.1%	8

• The Cowboys are the only team to score two or fewer touchdowns in every game this season and have scored two or fewer touchdowns in eight consecutive games dating back to last season, their longest such streak since 2002-2003.
• The Jaguars allow 1.2 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
• Dallas ranks 29th in touchdown conversion rate in the red zone (41.7 percent) while Jacksonville ranks 30th (38.5 percent).
• Jacksonville has had just one drive begin in opponent’s territory this season, tied for the fewest in the league with Tampa Bay. They averaged 1.2 such possessions per game in 2017.
• The Jaguars have turned the ball over on 21.1 percent (12-of-57) of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
• Blake Bortles averages 312.8 passing yards per game in six games with Leonard Fournette active with four games with over 300-passing yards.

Trust (spike starting production)

• T.J. Yeldon: He’s now had 90, 100 and 122 yards from scrimmage over the past three weeks and leads the team in receiving touchdowns with three. Dallas has allowed at least 95 yards from scrimmage to the lead back in four of five games this season and is coming off allowing 119 total yards to Alfred Blue a week ago.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Ezekiel Elliott: He’s been held to fewer than 90 yards from scrimmage in three of five games this season but is getting 23 touches per week and averaging a career-high 4.4 receptions per game as he has 52.5 percent of the Dallas touches, the highest rate in the league.

Bust (underperformance)

• Blake Bortles: He’s stacking yardage in games without Fournette and the Cowboys have allowed a 300-yard passer in back-to-back games, but this is the lowest game total of the week and screams out as a low-scoring affair.
• Dak Prescott: He’s yet to finish in the front-half of quarterback scoring this season while facing the league’s best pass defense.
• Dallas WRs: We avoid this receiving unit in good matchups, let alone layouts against the best secondary in the league.
• Jaguar WRs: This is a sum of parts receiving attack in which none are higher than WR4 options this week. Donte Moncrief leads the team in targets (37) and red zone looks (five) while Dallas has struggled on the perimeter a bit over the past three weeks. No one here is the caliber of player Dallas has failed to contain, but Dede Westbrook runs into the toughest individual assignment once again this week against Anthony Brown.

Chiefs @ Patriots

Kansas City	Rank	@	New England	Rank
3		Spread	-3
28.0		Implied Total	31.0
35.0	2	Points/Gm	26.6	9
25.8	20	Points All./Gm	21.6	9
63.6	20	Plays/Gm	64.4	16
70.6	30	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.2	24
42.8%	11	Rush%	42.6%	13
57.2%	22	Pass%	57.5%	20
29.2%	1	Opp. Rush %	38.7%	17
70.8%	32	Opp. Pass %	61.3%	16

• The 59-point game total is the largest for an NFL game since the Chiefs hosted the Raiders in Week 16 of 2004 (60 points).
• The Chiefs have outscored opponents 59-9 in the first quarter this season, the largest differential in the league.
• Kansas City averages 44.5 yards from scrimmage per possession, second to only the Rams (50.7 yards). They allow 45.2 yards per scrimmage per possessions, the most in the league.
• The Chiefs are allowing 479.2 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing skill players, the most in the league.
• After scoring on 33.3 percent (11-of-33) of their drives through three weeks (22nd), New England has scored on 12-of-22 drives the past two weeks, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
• Tom Brady is averaging a touchdown pass for every 104.2 yards passing, the best rate in the league. Patrick Mahomes is second with a touchdown pass for every 108.1 yards passing.
• Mahomes has tied a franchise record with four consecutive games of 300-yards passing, matching Trent Green (2004) and Bill Kenney (1983).
• The Chiefs have allowed the highest rate of rushing attempts to go for five or more yards (46.6 percent) and 10 or more yards (20.4 percent) in the league.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Patrick Mahomes: His fantasy output has dropped in three straight games from the week prior, but this week he gets a defense that is generating almost no pressure and is last in the league in sack rate (3.4 percent of dropbacks). The Patriots just allowed a QB4 overall week to a player who’s receiving weaponry was led by Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers.
• Travis Kelce: The Patriots have made a concentrated effort to limit his production in each of the past two times these teams have played, holding him to lines of 5-40-0 and 6-23-0, but he’s too hot to move down. He’s reached 100-yards in three of his past four games and he’s tied for the league lead in 100-yard receiving games since the start of the 2016 season.
• Sony Michel: He’s had 112 and 110 yards from scrimmage over the past two weeks with a touchdown in each game. Kansas City is allowing 35.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (31^st) and are 32^nd in rushing points allowed per carry. It’s unlikely the Chiefs script the Patriots out here like they have other teams, leaving Michel to threaten the season -high of 15 carries the Chiefs have faced to an individual back this season.
• James White: He is running a pass route on 74.2 percent of his snaps, the highest rate for all running backs in the league while Kansas City is allowing a league-worst 20.5 receiving points per game to backfields. That has been script induced to a large degree, but White’s role in the offense is a cornerstone (averaging 23.6 percent of the team targets per game) and a matchup advantage.
• Tom Brady: This offense has righted the ship and Brady has thrown three touchdowns in each of the past two games while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt without Gronk even getting warm yet. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points to every quarterback they’ve faced outside of Case Keenum.
• Rob Gronkowski: He hasn’t had over 20 percent of the team targets since Week 1 but is coming off a TE6 week and has had time to rest his ankle. The Chiefs have already allowed three top-five weeks to tight ends and two were Niles Paul and Jesse James, players not in Gronk’s stratosphere.
• Tyreek Hill: He has been a little quiet since the open of the season, but he has at least seven receptions or a touchdown in seven consecutive road games and torched this defense for 7-133-1 in the season opener a year ago.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Julian Edelman: He returned to play 69.6 percent of the offensive snaps and was on the field for 38-of-45 dropbacks for Brady. The Chiefs have done a much better job limiting slot production over the past two weeks, but Edelman walked right back into a 20.5 percent target share and has a high floor.
• Sammy Watkins: Everything with hamstring scare was relieved a week ago. He now has received 25 percent, 21.1 percent and 21.1 percent of the team targets over his past three full games and closed out weeks as the WR21, WR16 and WR26.
• Kareem Hunt: His lack of receiving work (five total receptions) is still an issue for when he fails to reach the ends zone, but he’s still touching the ball 19.6 times per game while the Patriots are 24^th in rushing yardage (97.8) allowed per game to backfields.

Bust (underperformance)

• Chris Hogan: The only arguments we can make for him is that he’s playing a lot of snaps, the Chiefs allow a lot of passing production and the game total is ludicrously high. On his own merit, though, he just 11 catches on the season.
• Phillip Dorsett: He ran a season-low 25 pass routes and received a season-low three targets with Edelman returning and Gordon getting more reps.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Josh Gordon: He still has a low floor, but he doubled his amount of routes run (18) and targets (four) a week ago from Week 4 and should only continue to get more work moving forward. In a potential shootout, he’s an upside swing on in your WR3 spot.

49ers @ Packers

San Francisco	Rank	@	Green Bay	Rank
9.5		Spread	-9.5
19.5		Implied Total	28.0
23.6	16	Points/Gm	23.0	19
29.2	29	Points All./Gm	22.8	15
67.0	10	Plays/Gm	69.0	6
65.6	21	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.4	9
40.9%	15	Rush%	32.2%	30
59.1%	18	Pass%	67.8%	3
39.0%	18	Opp. Rush %	41.1%	21
61.0%	15	Opp. Pass %	58.9%	12

• Green Bay is 32nd in first quarter point differential (-29) and 29th in first half point differential (-33) on the season.
• Aaron Rodgers leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points scored in the second half of games this season (74.1), which has accounted for 70.8 percent of his season total.
• San Francisco is allowing a touchdown once every 110.4 passing yards, the highest rate in the league. League average is allowing a touchdown pass for every 169.9 passing yards.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Aaron Jones has forced a missed tackle on 37.5 percent of his rushing attempts, the highest rate for all backs with 20 or more carries.
• Jamaal Williams has forced a missed tackled on just 1.9 percent of his carries, last of all 57 backs with 20 or more carries.
• The 49ers have turned the ball over on 7-of-24 possessions (29.2 percent) over the past two weeks (31st) after turning the ball over on 4-of-33 drives (12.1 percent) through three games (T-13).
• C.J. Beathard has now thrown an interception in six consecutive starts, the longest streak in franchise history since Steve Young in 1995.

Trust (spike starting production)

• Aaron Rodgers: There’s some concern that this game sets up similarly to when Green Bay played Buffalo two weeks ago, but Rodgers still threw 40 passes that game while the 49ers have allowed over 20 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve faced outside of Josh Rosen.
• Davante Adams: He has at least seven receptions in four straight games and has reached the end zone in every game but one this season.
• George Kittle: He’s been a top-10 scorer in four of five games this season and in six of his past seven games dating back to last season. He trails only Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce in receiving yardage among tight ends and he has a 40-yard reception in each of the past two games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

• Aaron Jones: He had just one touch in the second half last week when things went haywire, but that shouldn’t be the case here. When Green Bay controlled the game script two weeks ago, Jones led the team in touches and got the goal line opportunities.
• Jimmy Graham: He’s coming off a season-high 11 targets and has now been a top-12 tight end in three of his past four games despite only receiving two red zone targets all season so far.
• Alfred Morris: With Matt Breida out this week, Morris will shoulder the load. He found his way to 21 touches last week in tilted game script, so you shouldn’t be too turned off by game flow here despite him being attached to a large road dog. Morris also matched a career-high with five targets last week, so San Francisco clearly isn’t scared to involve him in the passing game a bit.

Bust (underperformance)

• C.J. Beathard: He’s not in a spot where we would pursue him in one quarterback leagues as a massive road dog, but he is an option in 2QB formats as he has 17.8 and 20.7 fantasy points in his two starts. He’s in a similar mold as Ryan Fitzpatrick in where he’ll create his own hair-on-fire moments in games due to his turnover proneness but has now thrown for over 288 or more yards in four of his past five starts and has three rushing touchdowns over those games.

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: One or both of Randall Cobb or Geronimo Allison will return this week, but before we get practice reports and status updates, we’re flying with what we already have in place. Valdes-Scantling lead the team in pass routes (56) and targets inside of the red zone (three) and inside of the 10-yard line (two) a week ago.
• Pierre Garcon: He’s had a terrible start to the season and now hasn’t score a touchdown in 16 straight games played. But his type of volume can’t be ignored as long as Marquise Goodwin remains sidelined. Over the past two weeks, Garcon has been targeted a team-high 21.1 percent of the time by Beathard, totaling 19 looks over the past two games.
• Kyle Juszczyk: This may be the first time a fullback has ever made this article in five years, but here we are. With Matt Breida sidelined, Juszczyk ran a season-high 31 pass routes last week and received seven targets. No quarterback dating back to last season has thrown to his backfield more often than Beathard, giving Juszczyk some deep-league appeal for those really dire to fill the position this week.