The NFL Week 6 Worksheet

It’s hard to believe that it’s Week 6 already, but here we are. After a carnage-filled Week 5, things were relatively quiet on the injury front last weekend, but with Seattle, Dallas, Cincinnati and Buffalo bye this week, owners are missing a lot of starting options again this week.

As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 6 games with a PPR light…

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Eagles @ Panthers

Philadelphia	Rank	@	Carolina	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
21.3		Implied Total	24.8
27.4	7	Points/Gm	21.0	18
19.8	13	Points All. /Gm	18.8	9
69.0	2	Plays/Gm	62.4	22
57.8	2	Opp. Plays/Gm	57.0	1
44.9%	9	Rush%	46.5%	8
55.1%	24	Pass%	53.5%	25
27.7%	1	Opp. Rush %	34.7%	2
72.3%	32	Opp. Pass %	65.3%	31

• Philadelphia (16.0) and Carolina (19.8) face the fewest rushing attempts per game.
• The Eagles have led for 58.8 percent of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the league. Carolina has led for 53.2 percent, second in the league.
• Cam Newton has thrown for 300-yards in back to back games for the first time since his first two career games in 2011.
• The Eagles allow 206.6 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receiving units, 31st in the league.
• Devin Funchess was targeted on a season-high 30.8 percent of his routes in Week 5. He is the only wide receiver that has had his targets per route rate rise in every game this season.
• Zach Ertz leads all tight ends in target market share (27.1 percent) with the highest share of his team’s receptions (29.1 percent) and receiving yardage (28.4 percent).
• Carolina has allowed just 25 percent of throws 15 yards or deeper (6-of-24) to be completed, the lowest rate in the league.
• The Eagles have allowed just 26.9 percent (7-of-26) of those throws to be completed, second in the league behind Carolina.

Trust: Cam Newton (after a rough open to the season, he’s found his groove with QB2 and QB5 weeks and has done so throwing the football. The Eagles have allowed a top-12 scoring quarterback in four straight games), Zach Ertz (the league’s most consistent tight end facing a defense that has allowed the TE9 and TE7 over the past two weeks), Devin Funchess (he has 34 targets over the past four games while turning in no game lower than a WR4 to go along with red zone targets over his past two games)

Bust: Jonathan Stewart (his 7.4 points last week were the most he’s had since Week 1 while the Eagles have only allowed one rusher to clear 35 yards on the ground), LeGarrette Blount (his workload stayed the same even with the absence of Wendell Smallwood and playing in a blowout, while Carolina has yet to allow a rusher to hit 60 yards on the season), Nelson Agholor (he’s scored in three games already after scoring three times through two years, but hasn’t had more than five targets in a game since Week 1), Ed Dickson (he had two 50-yard receptions last week after having just one over his previous seven seasons and five catches after having six over his rpevious three games, Dickson feels like the tight end unicorn of the week, potentitally following the footsteps of Marcedes Lewis and Tyler Kroft of recent weeks past)

Reasonable Return: Kelvin Benjamin (he’s been WR22 or higher in each of his past three full games), Christian McCaffrey (he’s been held to fewer than 50 yards from scrimmage in three of his past four games and had a season-low eight touches last week, but has yet to have a game finishing lower than a flex option), Alshon Jeffery (he’s had a murderous slate of subpar individual matchups and while James Bradberry has started to shadow opposing receivers on the boundary, he’s not a guy to completely run away from like the previous options Jeffery has faced), Carson Wentz (coming off of his first career game with more than two touchdown passes, this isn’t a great spot on the road in a short week and the Eagles will be without Lane Johnson, but Carolina has allowed 15 or more points to opposing quarterbacks in three straight)

Bears @ Ravens

Chicago	Rank	@	Baltimore	Rank
7.5		Spread	-7.5
17.0		Implied Total	24.5
15.6	30	Points/Gm	18.0	24
24.8	25	Points All. /Gm	19.4	11
61.4	26	Plays/Gm	63.0	13
60.2	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.8	18
43.0%	16	Rush%	48.6%	3
57.0%	17	Pass%	51.4%	30
42.9%	18	Opp. Rush %	45.5%	24
57.1%	15	Opp. Pass %	54.6%	9

• Opponents are completing 17.4 passes per game versus Baltimore, the fewest in the league.
• Over the past 10 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks are 0-9 with just three touchdowns and 13 interceptions at Baltimore.
• Baltimore has led by two or more possessions for 37.1 percent of their snaps, the highest in the league.
• Baltimore has trailed by two or more possessions for 31.8 percent of their snaps, 27th in the league.
• 45.6 percent of Buck Allen‘s rushing attempts (30-of-66) have come in the 4th Quarter, the highest rate in the league.
• Chicago is allowing 4.0 red zone trips per game, 30th in the league.
• After playing 48.9 percent of the snaps Week 1-3, Tarik Cohen has played 27.1 percent of the snaps over the past two weeks.

Bust: Mitchell Trubisky (the Chicago schedule and surrounding playmakers do Trubisky no favors for fantasy purposes), Tarik Cohen (until his snap counts and usage recovers, he’s not an option for lineups), CHI WRs (Kendall Wright is the only deep cut you make, but Baltimore is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing receiving units), Alex Collins (you can fish for a flex-type of a game if the script plays out and eventually his effectiveness per carry will force Baltimore to give him more touches if he can hold onto the football, but he’s yet to approach double-digit points in a game so far), Ben Watson (outside of his 8-91 against the Browns he has 10 catches for 57 yards on the season), Joe Flacco (this sets up as another week for the Ravens to nurse a lead as Flacco has single-digit points in four of five games)

Reasonable Return: Jordan Howard (he’s gone over 76 yards from scrimmage just once, but has at least 16 touches in four of five games to keep him RB2 territory by default), Buck Allen (his floor has been flex worthy throughout and has all the running back carries inside of the 5-yard line outside of Terrance West, who is going to be out), Jeremy Maclin/Mike Wallace (with some wide receivers on bye this week, both are unsexy options to fill-in. Wallace has been the WR11 and WR15 the past two weeks, but have had more than five targets in just one game. Maclin has been a steadier source of opportunity, but hasn’t hit 60 yards in any game so far), Zach Miller (he had a season-high 27 percent of the team targets and a TE13 week in the first game after the quarterback switch)

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Packers @ Vikings

Green Bay	Rank	@	Minnesota	Rank
-3		Spread	3
24.5		Implied Total	21.5
27.4	6	Points/Gm	19.8	20
22.4	20	Points All. /Gm	18.6	8
63.6	11	Plays/Gm	62.8	16
60.4	10	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.6	11
34.3%	29	Rush%	44.6%	12
65.7%	4	Pass%	55.4%	21
46.4%	29	Opp. Rush %	40.3%	13
53.6%	4	Opp. Pass %	59.7%	20

• Aaron Jones played 88 percent of the team snaps Week 5.
• Jones was the first Green Bay running back to have 100 or more rushing yards in his first start since Samkon Gado‘s 103 yards in 2004.
• Jones led the league in runs of five or more yards (11) and was tied for the lead in runs of 10 or more yards in Week 5.
• Minnesota is allowing .387 rushing points per carry to opposing backs, the second lowest rate in the league.
• 46.2 percent of Jordy Nelson‘s fantasy output has come from touchdown receptions, the highest rate for all top-12 scoring wide receivers.
• Aaron Rodgers has thrown a touchdown pass once every 57.1 passing yards the past two weeks. The average for the NFL this season one touchdown every 160.9 passing yards and for his career entering this season, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown once every 123.9 passing yards.
• The Packers have outscored opponents 87-36 in the second half this season, the largest gap in the league.
• Jerick McKinnon played 47 snaps with 22 touches while Latavius Murray played 22 snaps with 14 touches in Week 5.

Bust: Latavius Murray (at best, he’s the Minnesota version of Jonathan Stewart), Case Keenum (the way Sam Bradford looke don Monday, he looks far from ready to return. Outside of Week 3, he hasn’t been a strong option while Green Bay has allowed just one quarterback to finish higher than QB15 on the season), Randall Cobb(just when we we’re going all in on him being back to a weekly commodity, he laid an egg and has an average weekly finish of WR47 in eight games versus the Vikings for his career with just a high of WR26), Martellus Bennett (he’s yet to hit double-digit points in any game and is 15^th at the position in yards per game), Aaron Jones/ Ty Montgomery (with full practice on Thursday, putting him on track to play, which muddles things up against a good run defense on the road. I would treat Montgomery as a lower end RB2 and Jones as a fringe flex option with both active until we have firther clarity on if Jones will remain involved or not)

Reasonable Return: Aaron Rodgers (his touchdown output the past two weeks has been a touch on the fortunate side given his total output, even for him, while he’s hit 20 points just once in six games versus Minnesota since Mike Zimmer has been there), Adam Thielen (he gets an opportunity bump with Diggs out and we all remember his 200-yard game versus the Packers last year, but he’s only been flex worthy with Keenum, catching five passes in every game, but clearing double-digit points just once), Jerick McKinnon (it’s hard to bank on a long touchdown run inflating totals, but his reception floor is very real as he now has 41 receptions over his past nine games in which he’s played at least 40 percent of the team snaps), Kyle Rudolph (with Diggs potentially limited, he’s worth a look again after he received a season-high nine targets last week, but has yet to hit 50 yards in a game and the Packers have yet to allow a top-12 scoring tight end on the season), Jordy Nelson (he claims he’s healthy, but he played just 82 percent of the snaps last week. His yardage totals have been low and he should find Xavier Rhodes often, but is always a threat to score and was WR3 and WR18 in his two games versus Minnesota a year ago), Davante Adams (you can’t expect high yardage, but outside of Nelson, he carries the most touchdown upside at the position and has the added bonus of Rhodes potentially following Nelson all over the field)

49ers @ Washington

San Francisco	Rank	@	Washington	Rank
11		Spread	-11
17.8		Implied Total	28.8
17.8	26	Points/Gm	22.8	13
24.0	22	Points All. /Gm	22.2	18
65.0	9	Plays/Gm	61.0	27
70.8	32	Opp. Plays/Gm	58.5	3
35.7%	26	Rush%	47.5%	6
64.3%	7	Pass%	52.5%	27
46.3%	28	Opp. Rush %	38.5%	8
53.7%	5	Opp. Pass %	61.5%	25

• Opponents have scored on 48.1 percent (26-of-54) of their drives versus San Francisco, the highest rate in the league.
• No team has faced more plays run inside of their own 10-yard line than San Francisco (30) on the season.
• Opposing backfields average 33.4 touches per game versus San Francisco, the most in the league.
• Pierre Garcon has the most targets (44) in the league without a touchdown yet on the season.
• George Kittle was targeted on 32.1 percent of his routes in Week 5 after being targeted on 11.4 percent for the season.
• Washington is allowing 90.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, the most in the league.
• Carlos Hyde played a season-low 46 percent of the team snaps in Week 5. His snap share has gone from 82 percent, 74 percent, 69 percent to 46 percent over the past four weeks.
• Washington is allowing 8.1 rushing points per game to opposing backfields, second in the league behind Denver (4.2).

Trust: Kirk Cousins (in a spot as a big favorite at home against a team that has allowed 321 passing yards per game over the past three weeks)

Bust: Jamison Crowder (he hasn’t been higher than WR47 in any game while San Francisco has limited Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin and Cooper Kupp out of the slot to start the season), Carlos Hyde (between his hip injury, having his snaps pulled, Washington stopping the run well and a cross-country kickoff as a huge road underdog, the deck is stacked against him), Matt Breida (his touches have gone up every week and should be rostered in all leagues, but is still not an option to rely on for fantasy just yet), Brian Hoyer (Norman being out makes the matchup palatable, but he’s still undesirable outside of 2QB leagues as such a large road underdog), Josh Doctson (he still only has six targets on the season), Marquise Goodwin (he finally hit in a spot versus the league’s worst defense in preventing the long ball, but that isn’t the case here), Rob Kelley (he’s still not healthy and is expected to be limited if he plays, while Washington may not need much of him to begin with)

Reasonable Return: Jordan Reed (San Francisco has allowed little to opposing tight ends, but haven’t been challenged the past three weeks at the position. Reed has had a lot of time off to get back to as healthy he can be, but we need some tangible fantasy production before we start treating him as an elite option again), Pierre Garcon (his only down weeks have come against upper echelon corners, so with Josh Norman out, he should find his way to WR2 numbers), Terrelle Pryor (he hasn’t cleared five targets since Week 1, but vertical boundary receivers have done the most damage to the 49ers), Chris Thompson(can be used as a flex option, but this isn’t a game that sets up to feature him in the passing game with Washington as a large home favorite), George Kittle (last week was his first week involved in the offense and th emajority of it came at the end of regulation, but in a week with byes and injuries while going against a Washington team that has allowed a TE1 in every game this season, he’s an option to look towards again), Samaje Perine (he’s going to be the lead back this week as Kelley is’t 100 percent healthy yet. The 49ers haven’t been as poor versus the run as last year and will be getting Rueben Foster back, but they’ve allowed a top-12 back in every game but one and double-digit points to seven backs on the season)

Lions @ Saints

Detroit	Rank	@	New Orleans	Rank
5.5		Spread	-5.5
22.0		Implied Total	27.5
24.6	10	Points/Gm	23.2	12
19.4	10	Points All. /Gm	19.5	12
63.0	15	Plays/Gm	62.2	23
61.0	12	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.2	9
39.4%	21	Rush%	37.4%	25
60.6%	12	Pass%	62.7%	8
37.4%	5	Opp. Rush %	40.7%	15
62.6%	28	Opp. Pass %	59.3%	18

• 17.1 percent of Drew Brees’ pass attempts have come from inside the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
• In 11 games after a bye week with the Saints, Drew Brees has averaged 355.9 passing yards and 24.3 fantasy points per game with 32 touchdown passes. He’s thrown for at least 330 yards in nine of those games and was a top-6 scoring quarterback in eight of those games.
• Alvin Kamara has 18.4 percent of the New Orleans targets, the fourth-highest rate for any running back.
• The Saints are the only team in the league that has yet to turn the ball over on the season.
• After allowing opponents to score on 13-of-18 possessions (72 percent) over their first two games, the Saints have allowed opponents to score on 3-of-19 drives (15.8 percent) over their past two games.
• Over those past two games, the Saints have allowed 5.7 yards per pass attempt after allowing 11.2 yards per pass to start the season.
• Matthew Stafford has scored 23.8 and 22.1 points at New Orleans in each of the past two years.

Trust: Drew Brees (the Lions pass defense finally came back down last week and now go on the road to face Brees off a bye), Michael Thomas (has at least five catches for 80 yards in each of his past three games and although Darius Slay will find him on the boundary, Brees is in too good of a spot to have that scare owners), Matthew Stafford (he’s had a month of bad matchups and is dealing with ankle and hamstring ailments, and while the Saints have been strong versus the pass over their past two games, I’m not ready to buy them as a team to avoid pursuing), Golden Tate (he has just 160 yards since posting 106 in Week 1, but his targets aren’t going anywhere and points should be scored while the most exploitable way to attacking the Saints has been through the slot), Alvin Kamara (coming off a season-high 35 percent of the snaps and 15 touches, his snaps and touches are now going to be something we can count on weekly, making him a locked in starting option and Detroit has allowed the fourth most receptions to the running back position), Mark Ingram (he already had a solid floor, scoring double-digit points in every game, but with Adrian Peterson now gone, that floor should get elevated and he’s coming off a season-high 18 touches)

Bust: Ted Ginn (Snead is back and his targets per route have dropped in every game this season), Eric Ebron (his 1.19 points per target are the lowest mark for all tight ends with 20 or more targets on the season)

Reasonable Return: Willie Snead (I’d prefer a prove it week on rosters that afford that luxury since we’re not sure of the snap allotment, but if thin, Detroit has allowed five or more receptions to three of the four good slot receivers they’ve faced to start the season), Coby Fleener (Snead returning dampens his outlook, but with Brees expected to do damage, he’s worth a look for needy team against a Detroit team that just allowed Ed Dickson to look like Shannon Sharpe), Ameer Abdullah (just when we thought he was starting to look stable, he loses touches and goal line work, knocking him back down to RB2/flex status in a strong matchup), Theo Riddick (opposing teams target running backs 31.1 percent of the team versus the Saints, the highest rate in the league), Marvin Jones (he’s had one of the worst individual matchup schedules so far on the season while things lighten here and has still averaged 19 percent of the team targets since Week 1)

Dolphins @ Falcons

Miami	Rank	@	Atlanta	Rank
12.5		Spread	-12.5
17.3		Implied Total	29.8
10.2	32	Points/Gm	26.0	8
16.8	4	Points All. /Gm	22.2	19
59.2	29	Plays/Gm	62.5	17
60.2	8	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.0	19
39.2%	22	Rush%	42.8%	17
60.8%	11	Pass%	57.2%	16
39.8%	11	Opp. Rush %	34.8%	3
60.2%	22	Opp. Pass %	65.2%	30

• The Falcons average 41.2 yards per possession, the most in the league.
• Miami averages 21.0 yards per possession, the lowest in the league.
• The Dolphins have scored on just 8-of-43 drives (18.6 percent), the lowest rate in the league.
• Jarvis Landry has been targeted on 30.9 percent of his routes, second to DeAndre Hopkins (31.6 percent) for all wide receivers.
• 28.6 percent of Jay Ajayi‘s runs have failed to gain positive yardage, the second-highest rate of all running backs with 25 or more rushing attempts on the season.
• Jay Cutler‘s 8.6 yards per completion ranks last in the league.
• Devonta Freeman has out-touched Tevin Coleman 70-to-42, but has out-gained him by only 19 yards from scrimmage.
• Devonta Freeman has 65.4 percent of the team rushing attempts, up from averaging 52.8 percent per game when both he and Tevin Coleman were active a year ago.
• Freeman has just 6.7 percent of the team targets, down from the 12.5 percent he averaged per game with Coleman active in 2016.
• Coleman has received 14.1 percent of the team targets, up from the 9.4 percent per game he averaged a year ago.

Trust: Matt Ryan (despite his slow start for fantasy, all his peripheral stats are in line with his career output except he’s gone from a fortunate touchdown rate a year ago to an unfortunate one to start the year. As a big home favorite, this is a spot to turn that around), Julio Jones (he hasn’t posted a WR1 week yet, but this is a good place to start as Miami has allowed at least 18.5 points to an opposing wide receiver in every game this year outside of when they faced Matt Cassel), Devonta Freeman (his usage has risen, but in a more traditional sense, but that’s more than fine here as a double-digit home favorite)

Bust: DeVante Parker (dealing with an ankle injury and facing Desmond Trufant), Jay Cutler (a giant road dog that hasn’t finished inside of the top half of quarterback scoring in any week), Jay Ajayi (he’s been outside of the top-30 in three straight games and has been a top-20 scorer now in four of his past 12 games dating back to last year)

Reasonable Return: Tevin Coleman (he’s been a top-30 back in every game as his receiving work has given him a stable floor outside of relying on touchdowns like a year ago), Austin Hooper (he’s had more than two targets in just one game, but opponents are targeting tight ends 9.3 times per game versus the Dolphins, the third highest rate in the league and with Sanu likely out, may be a larger part of the gameplan), Jarvis Landry (he has at least six catches in every game to start the year and will avoid Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford in the slot), Taylor Gabriel (he was WR14 last year in the game that Mohamed Sanu missed, garnering 20 percent of the team targets)

Browns @ Texans

Cleveland	Rank	@	Houston	Rank
11		Spread	-11
17.0		Implied Total	28.0
15.4	31	Points/Gm	28.8	4
24.8	26	Points All./Gm	26.0	28
65.6	7	Plays/Gm	66.6	5
59.8	6	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.2	4
35.7%	27	Rush%	46.6%	7
64.3%	6	Pass%	53.5%	26
44.5%	22	Opp. Rush %	46.3%	27
55.5%	11	Opp. Pass %	53.7%	6

• Cleveland is allowing .563 passing points per attempt, 31st in the league.
• The Browns are allowing a touchdown pass once every 14 pass attempts, the highest rate in the league.
• Deshaun Watson has thrown a touchdown once every 12.1 pass attempts, the best rate in the league.
• Watson ‘s 12 passing touchdowns are the most ever by a rookie through the first five games in a season.
• 32.6 percent of the runs against Cleveland have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
• Cleveland faces the fewest targets to opposing wide receivers (14.2) per game but allows 9.3 yards per target to wideouts (31st in the league) and 1.97 fantasy points per target, the most in the league.
• Duke Johnson is the RB4 over the past three weeks on just 21.7 percent of the Cleveland touches, scoring once every 10 touches over that span.
• Ricardo Louis leads the league with 159 receiving yards (77.9 percent of his total) in the 4th Quarter.
• On 10 drives, Kevin Hogan averages 37.7 passing yards and 2.66 fantasy points per drive, the highest rates for all quarterbacks with double-digit possessions on the season.

Trust: Deshaun Watson (his touchdown rate is bound to decline eventually, but not against the defense allowing the highest touchdown rate), DeAndre Hopkins (he already has more touchdowns than he did all last season while Cleveland has allowed top-12 weeks to all three alpha wideouts they’ve faced so far)

Bust: Isaiah Crowell (he had his best setup last week and only turned in 67 yards total yards, which sadly was a season high), David Njoku (he’s scored three times, but is still splitting too much work, receiving just 15 targets so far on the season with no more than four in a game)

Reasonable Return: Will Fuller (he’s scored four times on just six targets, which won’t last forever, but you’re going to keep rolling him out while Watson is burning so bright), Lamar Miller (Cleveland has defended the run well, but the game script will keep carries coming and Miller has had a strong floor. He’s been a top-24 back in four of five games, but a top-12 back just once), Ryan Griffin (he has just four catches for 35 yards since Fuller returned, but insert obligatory mention of a tight end facing the Browns here), Duke Johnson (he’s scored a touchdown now with fewer than two minutes left in the game in each of the past two weeks as he’s doing his best Chris Thompson impression, but even when the touchdowns inevitably evaporate, he’s still an RB2/flex option as the only player you can truly count on in this offense), Ricardo Louis (he’s been a garbage time hero, but that’s not going to change while a quarterback change could help smooth out some of that backend production. Kenny Britt is going to play, but I don’t believe that particularly matters.), Kevin Hogan (you can’t count on his small sample passing efficiency posted in mop-up duty, but Houston is banged up defensively and Hogan provides points with his legs in a Tyler Thigpen-ish fashion)

Patriots @ Jets

New England	Rank	@	NY Jets	Rank
-11		Spread	11
29.3		Implied Total	18.3
29.6	3	Points/Gm	18.4	23
28.4	31	Points All. /Gm	21.2	15
67.8	3	Plays/Gm	57.4	31
64.6	21	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.0	29
37.8%	24	Rush%	43.2%	15
62.2%	9	Pass%	56.8%	18
38.7%	9	Opp. Rush %	46.6%	30
61.3%	24	Opp. Pass %	53.4%	3

• Brandin Cooks has the most fantasy points in the league (70.9) without a single point coming from inside of the red zone.
• Chris Hogan is the first New England player not named Rob Gronkowski to catch a touchdown in four straight games since Randy Moss in 2007.
• Tom Brady has thrown for 300-yards in four straight games for the first time since 2013. His career-longest streak is five games set in 2009.
• After scoring 22.5 points Week 1, Mike Gillislee has scored 26.1 points since.
• The Patriots are the first team to allow five consecutive 300-yard passers at any point in a season.
• Josh McCown and Alex Smith are the only quarterbacks to complete at least two thirds of their passes in every game this season.
• Just 6.6 percent of the Jets’ offensive plays have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust: Tom Brady (the Patriots are one-dimensional right now and even if the dogs eventually get called off, the passing game should be what builds any lead), Chris Hogan (his shift to becoming more of a possession type has aided his floor while his consistent red zone work has been stacked on that floor to create a ceiling option over the past month), Rob Gronkowski (his surprise inactive last week was a thorn in the side for many, but he’s good to go this week after a long layoff)

Bust: Robby Anderson (he’s the best bet for a splash play if you want to chase it, but he hasn’t been effective at turning them in as he’s caught just 14-of-29 targets and scored double-digit points just once), Josh McCown (the Patriots pass defense was good a week ago until the game reached jailbreak stages, and McCown could live in that stage for over a half here, but this Jets passing offense isn’t one to strictly pursue junk script for production for fantasy), Jermaine Kearse (he has 97 yards on 11 receptions combined over his past three games)

Reasonable Return: Brandin Cooks (he’s caught three or fewer passes in three of five games, while he’ll face off with Morris Claiborne most of the New England receivers, but he’s hard to move completely away from given we anticipate Brady to post major points), Mike Gillislee (I still don’t fully trust that the Patriots can truly run the ball effectively, but the Patriots have been playing tight games with few opportunities for the old “Blount Role” to take hold. If there ever was a spot for that role to get elevated, this would be the week and the Jets are allowing 102.6 rushing yards per game to the running back position), James White (he’s been a top-20 scorer in three of the past four games while the Jets have allowed 49 or more receiving yards to four different backs to start the season), Elijah McGuire (with Matt Forte out and Bilal Powell in question, McGuire’s workload should be enough to start as an RB2 versus a New England team that is allowing 5.2 yards per carry to backs and has allowed the most receiving points to the position), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (he’s tied or lead the team in targets in two of his three games played while the Patriots have allowed a tight end to score in four of five games), Danny Amendola (he’s been a top-20 receiver in three of four games)

Buccaneers @ Cardinals

Tampa Bay	Rank	@	Arizona	Rank
-1		Spread	1
22.8		Implied Total	21.8
21.2	17	Points/Gm	16.2	29
20.8	14	Points All. /Gm	25.0	27
62.0	24	Plays/Gm	69.2	1
68.8	31	Opp. Plays/Gm	65.4	23
34.7%	28	Rush%	28.9%	32
65.3%	5	Pass%	71.1%	1
37.8%	7	Opp. Rush %	43.4%	20
62.2%	26	Opp. Pass %	56.6%	13

• 84.8 percent of the yardage gained by Arizona has been passing, the highest rate in the league.
• 77 percent of the yardage gained by Tampa Bay has been passing, the third highest rate in the league.
• Tampa Bay is facing 41.8 pass attempts per game, the most in the league.
• Carson Palmer averages 45.4 pass attempts per game, the most in the league.
• Just 7.8 percent (9-of-116) of the completions against the Buccaneers have gained 20 yards or more, the lowest rate in the league.
• Arizona has converted 31.3 percent (5-of-16) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
• Andre Ellington‘s 25 second-half targets rank fourth in the league. His 14 first-half targets rank 61st.
• No tight end has more games with a touchdown reception than Cameron Brate (10) since the start of last season.

Trust: Larry Fitzgerald (he has been up and down, but every week his matchup seems to pop with neon lights as being the most favorable one on the board. Tampa Bay has allowed the most points to opposing slot receivers), Andre Ellington (he’s second among running backs in receptions on the season while Tampa Bay has allowed at least five catches and 50 receiving yards to a back in three of their four games), DeSean Jackson (coming off his best game of the year, vertical and slot options have roasted the Cardinals while Patrick Peterson runs around with alpha targets)

Bust: Adrian Peterson (At best, he’s the Arizona version of Jonathan Stewart. Wait, I used that one already. The trade elevates his opportunity, but the Arizona offensive line won’t do him any favors against a defense allowing 3.27 yards per carry, the third lowest rate in the league), Mike Evans (he had 6-70-1 in this matchup a year ago with Patrick Peterson, but it came on 18 targets and in a blowout loss. The targets are now being shared and the Cardinals are unlikely to run away from Tampa here), John Brown (he has at least seven targets in every game, so the opportunities are there to keep using him, but he’s managed to turn them into 105 yards total and the Bucs have not allowed splash plays so far), Jaron Brown (he’s been outside of the top-50 in two of the three games in which John Brown has played and his snaps fell to a low of 60 percent last week)

Reasonable Return: Jameis Winston (he hasn’t been good in reality, but has thrown for 300-yards with 15 or more points in three straight games), Carson Palmer (he hasn’t been able to crash a ceiling, but his volume has carried him to QB12-QB15 finishes in each of the past four weeks), Adam Humphries (slot guys are always in play versus Arizona, who have allowed WR3 or better weeks to Trent Taylor, Nelson Agholor and Golden Tate on the season), Doug Martin (he looked lean and explosive on his opportunities last week before the game script forced him out of action, but Arizona is much versus the run stouter than New England, allowing 3.3 yards per carry to opposing backfields), Cameron Brate (at a position driven by touchdowns, it’s ok to play a guy that actually produces them often)

Rams @ Jaguars

LA Rams	Rank	@	Jacksonville	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
20.5		Implied Total	23.0
30.4	2	Points/Gm	27.8	5
24.2	23	Points All./Gm	16.6	3
62.4	19	Plays/Gm	63.4	12
64.4	20	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.6	28
44.9%	10	Rush%	55.2%	1
55.1%	23	Pass%	44.8%	32
46.0%	25	Opp. Rush %	40.8%	17
54.0%	8	Opp. Pass %	59.2%	16

• Jacksonville is allowing .249 points per play, the second best in the league. The Rams have scored .487 points per play, the second most in the league.
• Just 9.6 percent of the plays run against the Jaguars have come from inside of the red zone, the second-lowest rate after the Seahawks (7.6 percent).
• Jacksonville is allowing .183 passing points per attempt, the fewest in the league. League average is .415 passing points per attempt.
• The Jaguars have forced 15 turnovers (most in the league), the most they’ve ever forced through five games in franchise history.
• Leonard Fournette‘s 108.4 fantasy points are the second-most by Jaguars’ player through five games, behind only Jimmy Smith in 2000 (127.6).
• Fournette has accounted for 35.9 percent of the Jacksonville yardage, the highest share by any running back in the league.
• Jacksonville is allowing 17.8 rushing points per game to opposing backfields (29th) while the Rams are allowing 19.2 rushing points per game (32nd).
• Sammy Watkins has been targeted on fewer than 10 percent of his routes in three of the five games this season and 60.7 percent of his season output for fantasy came in Week 3.

Trust: Leonard Fournette (his workload is as good as you can have in your lineups and he’s performed weekly no matter the competition, while this week Jacksonville plays the league’s worst rush defense for fantasy purposes in their first game in their own stadium in a month), Todd Gurley (the Rams inexplicably attempted to go pass-heavy last week against Seattle at home and went away from Gurley, but I expect them correct that that this week as the Jaguars have been nearly as bad versus the run as the Rams)

Bust: Blake Bortles (he’s 31^st this year in attempts per game, just where Doug Marrone wants to keep him and it’s unlikely that he’ll be forced to throw a ton here), Jared Goff (he had his worst game of the season last week against the best pass defense he’s faced while he faces the league’s best pass defense this week), Rams WRs (you can sell yourself on Cooper Kupp avoiding A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey on the inside, but the only wideouts to finish as a WR3 or better against Jacksonville have been Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins), Jaguars WRs (the problem here is both Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee are squashed by the overall size of the passing pie. The only game in which either were a WR3 or better was when they were forced into catch-up mode against Tennessee)

Reasonable Return: Tyler Higbee (only an option for those in true need and can’t find a path to Kittle or Derby, he has 14 targets over the past two weeks after receiving just seven through three weeks and has turned them into 145 yards while the Rams’ wideouts are going to struggle)

Chargers @ Raiders

LA Chargers	Rank	@	Oakland	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
24.0		Implied Total	27.5
19.8	21	Points/Gm	21.6	16
23.0	21	Points All./Gm	21.8	16
60.8	28	Plays/Gm	54.6	32
65.4	24	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.6	14
34.2%	30	Rush%	39.9%	20
65.8%	3	Pass%	60.1%	13
48.9%	31	Opp. Rush %	49.0%	32
51.1%	2	Opp. Pass %	51.0%	1

• Melvin Gordon is third in the league with 201 rushing yards in the first half while ranking 40th in the league with 72 rushing yards in the second half.
• The Chargers have trailed for 76.3 percent of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the league. They’ve trailed for 81.2 percent of their second half plays, 30th in the league.
• The Chargers have allowed over 100-yards rushing in nine consecutive games dating back to last season, the longest streak in the league and the longest streak in franchise history since 1977.
• The Chargers have allowed 62 runs of five or more yards, the most in the league.
• 28.1 percent of Marshawn Lynch‘s runs have gained at least five yards, 44th of all players with 25 or more rushing attempts.
• Over the past three weeks, Oakland has trailed for every single offensive snap in the second half, have trailed by two or more possessions on 85 percent of those snaps and three or more possessions on 32 percent of those plays.
• Hunter Henry ran a season-high 31 pass routes last week after running 62 all season prior.
• Oakland is allowing 8.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 31st in the league.
• Michael Crabtree‘s 2.84 receiving points per target leads all 73 wide receivers with at least 20 targets on the season. Amari Cooper‘s .93 per target ranks 70th of the same group.

Trust: Philip Rivers (he has 17 or more points in four of five games and the Chargers won’t nurse a lead against Oakland like Baltimore and Denver have the past two weeks), Melvin Gordon (he squeaky-wheeled his way to s season-high 26 touches last week as he’s been a top-15 scorer in four of five games), Keenan Allen (he’s one of just two players with nine targets in every game this season and has double-digit points in every game this season)

Bust: Amari Cooper (there’s a chance that we look back at the past month and it’s the lowest point of Cooper’s season aided by his knee injury and a rough slate, but he’s supposed to be a talent to overcome those to a usable degree. With just four catches for 23 yards over the past three weeks, we’re in a holding period for putting him into lineups if you don’t have to), Derek Carr (expected to play, we don’t know if he’s at risk for re-aggravation and the Chargers haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish in the top half of scoring since Week 1), Jared Cook (he’s had at least six targets in four straight games, but has finished higher than TE24 in just one of them) , Tyrell Williams (he’s only had one week higher than WR37 and has been held to fewer than 60 yards in four of five games. He needs to hit a home run to hit for you)

Reasonable Return: Michael Crabtree (he’s the most reliable player in this offense and has scored in four straight games versus the Chargers), Marshawn Lynch (the Raiders have yet to play since Week 1 in which the game script was neutral throughout, which has aided in keeping Lynch’s touches remaining capped, but if he can’t turn in a usable line versus the Chargers’ run defense, then I’m not sure there’s any hope left), Hunter Henry (he’s scored two weeks in a row and hopefully his usage last week is finally a changing of the guard since Antonio Gates has looked cooked. Oakland has allowed three top-10 scorers at the tight end position)

Steelers @ Chiefs

Pittsburgh	Rank	@	Kansas City	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
20.8		Implied Total	25.3
19.8	19	Points/Gm	32.8	1
17.8	6	Points All./Gm	22.2	17
66.4	6	Plays/Gm	62.4	20
61.0	13	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.6	17
38.6%	23	Rush%	43.9%	13
61.5%	10	Pass%	56.1%	20
44.3%	21	Opp. Rush %	39.9%	12
55.7%	12	Opp. Pass %	60.1%	21

• The 164 points scored by the Chiefs are the most they’ve scored through five games since 2002 (171 points).
• The Chiefs have scored on 53.8 percent of their possessions (28-of-52), the highest rate in the league.
• The Steelers have allowed opponents to score on 24.1 percent (14-of-58) of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
• Alex Smith is 16-of-22 (72.7 percent) with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the red zone. He was 30-of-64 (46.9 percent) with 11 touchdowns in the red zone all of 2016.
• The Chiefs are allowing the most yards per completion (14.5 yards) while the Steelers are allowing the fewest (8.7 yards).
• Ben Roethlisberger has been a top-12 scoring quarterback in five of his past 14 games dating back to last season.
• 40.5 percent of the runs against the Chiefs have gained five or more yards and 17.5 percent have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rates allowed in the league.
• 28.3 percent of Le’Veon Bell‘s carries have gone for five or more yards (43rd) and 8.8 percent have 10 or more yards (32nd) after 40 percent of his carries gained at least five yards (fifth) in 2016 and 14.2 percent gained 10 or more yards (eighth) for all backs with 100 or more carries.
• Bell is averaging a career-low 5.3 yards per reception after averaging 8.8 yards per catch for his career prior to the season.

Trust: Kareem Hunt (he’s posted at least 100-yards from scrimmage in every game this year while the Steelers have struggled to defend the run against the two teams they’ve faced that have shown that they can run the football regularly), Le’Veon Bell (the usage has been there, but the explosive plays in both the run and the pass game just have not, but the Chiefs are allowing chunk gains in each facet), Antonio Brown (I poked the bear and he bit my face off last week. Brown will avoid Marcus Peters on two thirds of his routes and in the three regular season meetings between these teams over the past three years, Brown has been the WR10, WR12 and WR9), Travis Kelce (if he clears concussion protocol he’s had 98 or more receiving yards in eight of his past 12 games played), Alex Smith (Smith has been the most consistent quarterback to start the year and while the Steelers have stifled the pass, Smith is easily the best quarterback they’ve faced as the five guys to start against Pittsburgh so far have combined for four top-12 scoring weeks on the season)

Bust: Martavis Bryant (the Chiefs have allowed at least one 30-yard reception to five different wide receivers, but he’s had three or fewer catches in every game and Roethlisberger has hinted he could be scaled back) Jesse James (he’s been the TE23 or lower every week since Week 1), Juju Smith-Schuster (we can sell ourselves on slot wideouts doing damage versus the Chiefs, but he’s still a leap of faith and only a deep league/DFS dark option as he’s averaging just 12.7% of team targets over the past four games and if Eli Rogers plays some slot snaps, it pushes Smith-Schuster out of that desirable spot for the full game)

Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger (he’s been a top-10 scorer in four of his past five games on the road in games that don’t have an early kickoffs, but it’s not even about home or road splits with Ben anymore, he’s just been below average everywhere. Outside of his own play, the schedule has been stingier than it gets noted for and the Chiefs have allowed three of the past four quarterbacks they’ve faced to score 20 or more points. He takes a step of faith, but I believe he turns in a usable fantasy line), Tyreek Hill (he’s yet to hit 100-yards since Week 1 and isn’t getting the creative touches he did a year ago)

Giants @ Broncos

NY Giants	Rank	@	Denver	Rank
13		Spread	-13
13.5		Implied Total	26.5
16.4	28	Points/Gm	24.5	11
24.4	24	Points All./Gm	18.5	7
63.0	14	Plays/Gm	67.2	4
67.0	30	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.5	5
31.8%	31	Rush%	48.3%	4
68.3%	2	Pass%	51.7%	29
46.0%	26	Opp. Rush %	35.3%	4
54.0%	7	Opp. Pass %	64.7%	29

Trust: C.J. Anderson (he’s had 21, 28 and 24 touches in Denver wins while the Giants are allowing 119 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, 28^th in the league)

Bust: All Non- Evan Engram Giants (We’ll make this easy. Look at the Giants’ implied team total. Denver smothers the run and the pass, so it’s a hard sell on fringe options in this game outside of Engram. The only other guy you can make a good case for using is Shane Vereen as a deep flex, but even that has marginal appeal), Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas (this isn’t a great spot for either as the Giants rank fifth in points allowed to wide receivers and have allowed just one top-24 scorer on the season. Pair the matchup with the fact that Denver may not have to do a lot on offense altogether and it’s not a spot to expect a lot out of. the absence of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie doesn’t hurt, but he primarily plays on the inside, where niether of this Denver duo ventures often), Trevor Siemian (the Giants have allowed six touchdown passes the past two weeks, but both were in back and forth games. Siemian may throw multiple touchdowns, but I’d expect them to come along with marginal yardage)

Reasonable Return: Evan Engram (with their entire receiving corps out, Engram is the best playmaker they have left while Denver has allowed big games to Charles Clay and Jason Witten on the season), AJ Derby (he’s coming off his best game in which he received six targets and the Giants have allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end in every game this season)

Colts @ Titans

Indianapolis	Rank	@	Tennessee	Rank
n/a		Spread	n/a
n/a		Implied Total	n/a
19.4	22	Points/Gm	22.0	15
31.8	32	Points All./Gm	28.4	30
62.4	18	Plays/Gm	58.6	30
66.0	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.6	27
47.8%	5	Rush%	44.7%	11
52.2%	28	Pass%	55.3%	22
40.6%	14	Opp. Rush %	44.7%	23
59.4%	19	Opp. Pass %	55.3%	10

• T.Y. Hilton is averaging 12.6 yards per target on 37 targets, the highest of all wide receivers with at least 20 targets on the season.
• Hilton has accounted for 41.4 percent of the Indianapolis receiving yardage (second behind Antonio Brown) on 25.5 percent of the team targets, the largest yardage from target share rate in the league.
• Jacoby Brissett‘s 1.57 percent touchdown rate ranks last of all quarterbacks with multiple starts this season.
• Just 12.1 percent of Brissett’s fantasy output has stemmed from passing touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
• The Colts are allowing 3.6 offensive touchdowns per game (the most in the league), while Tennessee is allowing 3.4 touchdowns per game (30th).
• Just 7.1 percent of DeMarco Murray‘s rushing attempts (7-of-56) have come in the 4th Quarter, the third lowest rate in the league.
• Murray is averaging 2.8 receiving points per game after averaging 6.8 in 2016.
• 17.8 percent of Marcus Mariota‘s scoring has come from passing touchdowns, second to last above Brissett.

Trust: T.Y. Hilton (he’s gone as the matchup as gone while playing without Andrew Luck and this matchup couldn’t be much better against a team that ranks 30^th in receptions allowed to receivers and is tied for the league-lead in touchdowns allowed to the position), Delanie Walker (discount him if we have to watch Matt Cassel again, but the Colts have allowed a TE1 in each of the past two weeks and a touchdown to the position in three straight games)

Bust: Eric Decker (he’s yet to be a top-50 receiver), Donte Moncrief (once again, if you really want to chase points here because of the matchup, Moncrief is no longer the team’s WR2), Marlon Mack (in the ilk of Matt Breida, he should be owned, but isn’t a weekly option just quite yet), Jack Doyle (still in concussion protocol to start the week and has been above TE24 just once on the season)

Reasonable Return: Jacoby Brissett (he’s been the QB4 and the QB10 sandwiched around a QB24 week in Seattle while the Titans have allowed at least 18 points to every quarterback except for Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler), Frank Gore (he’s been an RB2/flex option in every game except for one with at least 80 yards from scrimmage in each of the past two games), Rishard Mathews (as long as Mariota plays, he’s on the board and put up 9-122 when these teams last met), DeMarco Murray (he’s not getting touches late in games and he’s not smoothing out poor rushing games with receiving output like he was a year ago), Marcus Mariota (if we knew he was completely healthy, this would be an awesome game for him to get right as the Colts have allowed a QB1 in four straight games, but with this game on Monday Night, it’s unlikely you can wait on finding out unless you own Brissett as well or the Titans give us clarity throughout the week on his availability)

Context Key:

Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations

Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations

Reasonable Return = Baseline Play that won’t hurt you

**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings