Quarterback
Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tua has been making the spreadsheets go brrr since returning to the lineup two weeks ago. It just hasn’t resulted in elite fantasy performances. He is fourth in EPA per play and CPOE over the past two weeks.
Tua has three touchdowns, no interceptions, and just two sacks. His yardage totals have stagnated around 230 yards, preventing him from hitting a ceiling outcome. Tua and the Dolphins get a Rams defense that is 23rd in passing yards per game allowed and 22nd in EPA per dropback. The game’s total of 50 points is the third-highest of the week.
Start: Brock Purdy, 49ers
Week 10 is a freebie spot for Purdy. Vegas has the 49ers with the highest team total of the weekend, clearing the Lions by 2.5 points. He gets a Tamp Bay defense that has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team. Purdy will be among the chalkiest passers in DFS this week and for good reason.
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Sit: Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Kyler has been a middling fantasy asset this year, coming in at QB13 in points per game heading into Week 10. He has one game over 25 fantasy points and has done most of his damage against bad passing defenses. Murray’s average of 16.7 points per game has fallen to 14.4 against teams that rank inside the top 10 in EPA per dropback allowed. Murray has faced four such teams and has peaked at 214 yards with one passing touchdown in those contests. Next on tap is a Jets defense that sits at ninth in EPA per passing play allowed.
Sit: Bo Nix, Broncos
Nix enters Week 10 as the QB8 and has been a popular streamer over the past month. He’s staring down a roadblock this week with the Chiefs on deck. Kansas City ranks sixth in the NFL in pressure rate. Nix is last in the league in YPA when pressured (4.2) and ranks 32nd in PFF passing grade under pressure. The Broncos have the third-lowest team total—implied points scored via the total and spread—of the week and are 7.5-point underdogs. Give Nix a break from the streaming conversation for Week 10.
Running Back
Start: Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Devin Singletary returned to the lineup three weeks ago and Tracy hasn’t missed a beat. Tracy has seen 59 percent of the Giants’ carries with a 65 percent snap share. Both marks would rank inside the top 10 running backs this year. Week 10 is a phenomenal matchup for him. The Panthers have given up the most carries, yards, and touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Start: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
Hunt is 11th in the league in red zone carries and fifth in inside the five attempts. He’s played five (5!) games! The Chiefs are favored by over a touchdown at home. Hunt’s odds of finding the end zone are shockingly high. Keep it simple. Start Hunt.
Sit: Travis Etienne, Jaguars
The Jags’ backfield was a true three-headed monster in Week 9. Tank Bigsby led the group in snaps, carries, and routes. He saw eight rush attempts but wasn’t targeted. Etienne, running far fewer routes than Bigsby, was targeted three times but only earned three carries. To top it all off, D’Ernest Johnson pitched in for 23 percent of the routes and two carries of his own, one of which was the backfield’s only goal line attempt. With Trevor Lawrence out for Week 10, game script and poor market share numbers will kill any fantasy hope for Etienne (and Bigsby).
Sit: Najee Harris, Steelers
Jaylen Warren’s return to the lineup has eaten into Harris’s role in a way that will be especially painful this week. Harris ran a route of half of his team’s dropbacks and had a 13 percent target share through five weeks. Those numbers are down to 35 and eight percent over his past three appearances, all of which Warren has been active for. As three-point dogs to the juggernaut Commanders, Harris’s two-down role isn’t going to cut it.
Wide Receiver
Start: Jordan Addison, Vikings
Addison’s production has been spotty this year because of how much he depends on big plays. He has five gains of 20+ yards, three of which have come against Cover 2 looks. Addison leads the NFL (min. 25 routes) in yards per route run against Cover 2. His opponent, the Jaguars, utilizes Cover 2 more than any other team. They have also allowed the second-most completions on throws 20+ yards downfield. If ever there was a week to call your shot with Addison, it would be Week 10.
Start: Terry McLaurin, Commanders
Similar to Addison, McLaurin is set up particularly well based on his opponent’s tendencies. The Steelers use Cover 3 on nearly half of their plays. McLaurin ranks third among receivers with at least 50 routes in YPRR versus Cover 3 (3.6). Matchup aside, McLaurin has simply been putting the best football of his career on the field this year. He is on pace for a career-high in yards per route run (2.3) and his second-best season by PFF receiving grade (83.8).
Sit: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
As much as it pains me, BTJ is getting a week of WR3 probation with Mac Jones expected to start for the Jags. Trevor Lawrence, who is out with a shoulder injury, is first in completions and yards on deep throws this year. PFF has him graded as their No. 3 deep passer. He also throws deep at the third-highest rate. Jones, on the other hand, was 35th in deep throw rate and 34th in PFF passing grade on said throws in 2023.
Sit: Calvin Ridley, Titans
Ridley is still clinging onto a WR3 ranking based on his elite market share numbers, but there is almost no floor to his game if Will Levis is back for Week 10. The free agent acquisition averaged 7.6 PPR points per game with Levis as the starter.
Some of that number is based on DeAndre Hopkins’ presence in the offense. However, a big chunk of the blame lands on Levis’s shoulders for making 54 percent of his targets intended for Ridley catchable. That number is up to 71 percent in Mason Rudolph’s starts. The Titans also have the lowest implied team total of the week at 15.75.
Tight End
Start: Cade Otton, Bucs
Since Week 7–Mike Evans left early and Chris Godwin left late—Otton has accounted for 26 percent of the Bucs’ targets and a quarter of their air yards. Because every game they play is a shootout, that has worked out to over 10 targets and 75 air yards per game. Those would be among the best weekly numbers for a wide receiver, let alone a tight end. Otton is a top-five fantasy tight end at least until Evans returns.
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
Smith’s role isn’t going anywhere. He has at least six targets and four receptions in each of his past four games. His target share has ballooned to 23 percent during that stretch and he has been targeted on 27 percent of his routes. For reference, Tyreek Hill has a 22 percent target share with a .2 targets per route run in those same games. In a likely shootout with the Rams, we’re going back to the Jonnu well this week.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid is playing a TE1 role but isn’t getting TE1 results. He is the TE16 in points per game and has the efficiency metrics of a tight end that you’d leave on the waiver wire. He ranks 15th in yards per route run and 33rd in yards per target. Only one tight end converts air yards to real yards at a lower rate. Kincaid is still on the fringes of the TE1 ranks, but his star has fallen so precipitously that I conned RotoPat into ranking Hunter Henry and Taysom Hill ahead of him.
Sit: Dalton Schultz, Texans
Like Kincaid, Schultz’s role hasn’t been the issue. His dreadful efficiency is the problem. The one tight end with a worse air yards conversion rate than Kincaid? That was Schultz. He is 37th in yards per route run and 36th in PFF receiving grade. It’s hard to see how his efficiency numbers improve against a Detroit defense that his given up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
