This is the point of the season where fantasy championships can be won or lost. Sure, we ultimately play our championship games in the end of December, but we’ll never make it there if we don’t start to trim the fat and beef up our teams in the right places.
It can be tough to be so forward thinking while we’re deep in the heart of the bye week gauntlet, but as fantasy owners we always need one eye on the present and one eye on the future.
As I mentioned last week, the key to success is looking beyond the box score and digging deeper into what produced the numbers. So in this edition of IDP Nation, I’m going to save the spiel and dive right in to the need to know information from Week 8.
Of course, before we get into it this week make sure you’re following me on Twitter. If Twitter isn’t your thing, you can also like me on Facebook. Alright, let’s do this.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $3 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 9’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $500,000. Starts Sunday, November 2nd at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
The Low Down
The trade deadline arrived on Tuesday, and we actually saw a somewhat big deal with the Bucs sending Mark Barron to St. Louis in exchange for a fourth- and sixth-round pick. This is actually good news if you’re a Barron owner, as he goes from a predominantly Tampa-2 defense to a much more aggressive scheme under Gregg Williams. Expect Barron to start immediately along with T.J. McDonald.
Again we saw Joplo Bartu get the start for the Falcons over Prince Shembo, but I wouldn’t rush out to the waiver wire and grab him. Bartu still isn’t every-down. Paul Worrilow remains the only Falcons linebacker with IDP value. And don’t worry about Worrilow’s four-tackle performance. His poor numbers were largely the product of a game script that resulted in very little rushing from the Lions. Worrilow will be just fine.
I think we finally have the Bills linebacker situation figured out. Preston Brown played every-down along with Nigel Bradham seeing nearly every snap for the second straight week. Bradham had the better tackle numbers with an impressive 11 total (10 solo), but Brown wasn’t far behind with nine total (eight solo) and an interception. Both players should be considered LB2s going forward.
Avery Williams posted a very strong Week 8 stat line with 10 total tackles (eight solo), a sack, and a pass defensed. He also played all but seven of the Titans’ defensive snaps, while Wesley Woodyard was in on just 64 percent of the snaps. It looks like this snap distribution is going to continue, which makes Williamson a very interesting LB3 for the rest of the season.
Brandon Marshall continued his strong production, posting 10 total tackles (eight solo) for Denver for on Thursday night. Nate Irving also managed a solid seven total tackles (six solo). He still isn’t every-down, but the good news is that Irving did see plenty of subpackage snaps. Those in deeper leagues may want to take a look at Irving, but he’s still no better than an LB4 option.
Rookie Anthony Barr produced one of the week’s most exciting plays with his forced fumble and recovery that he took to the house for the game winner. While you can’t expect plays like that each week, Barr has displayed a very high tackle floor over the last two weeks, with 18 tackles during that span. Barr is now a high upside LB3.
I said it last week, but if people in your league fell asleep on Reshad Jones, grab him immediately. He led the Dolphins in tackles in Week 8 and is a DB1 for the rest of the season. Jelani Jenkins isn’t putting up the big numbers we saw out of him earlier in the season, but don’t overreact. He played a Jags team this past week that has been a poor matchup for linebackers so far. Stay the course with Jenkins.
Lamarcus Joyner showed up big in the box score with 10 total tackles (nine solo), but I wouldn’t recommend picking him up. Joyner is not an every-down player, so his week-to-week consistency will be almost non-existent. Don’t chase last week’s numbers.
Joe Haden saw a ton of action on Sunday, with 13 targets thrown into his coverage. That means we shouldn’t overreact to his nine total tackles and two passes defensed. This was the first time Haden has seen double-digit targets all season, and his numbers will undoubtedly regress.
William Gay’s numbers are also going to look on your waiver wire, but keep in mind that he had a rare pick-six and saw increased tackle opportunities with the Colts turning to the air in a blow out. Gay isn’t worth an add this week.
Injury Ward
Justin Durant posted an impressive 10 total tackles (eight solo) on Monday night, but he’ll unfortunately miss the rest of the season with a torn biceps. With Durant out, we can expect Rolando McClain and Bruce Carter to serve as the Cowboys’ every-down linebackers. McClain would be the preferred fantasy option of the two, but those really scrounging for a linebacker should snatch up Carter.
Bobby Wagner remained sidelined in Week 8, and we saw K.J. Wright assume the every-down duties. Malcolm Smith started the game as a three-down ‘backer, but was on the sideline for much of the second half with a groin injury. Despite just playing 39 snaps to 62 for Wright, Smith actually posted more tackles with eight on the day. We’ll update Wagner’s status on Wednesday.
We weren’t quite sure how the Pats would proceed with Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo sidelined, but there was some speculation that Dont’a Hightower would kick outside. That’s actually not what happened, as Hightower ended up playing every down on the inside. Jamie Collins also played every-down until the fourth quarter when Deontae Skinner came on. There’s some speculation that this was the result of Collins’ poor play in coverage, but there’s no official word. Regardless, expect Collins to start this week. Newly acquired Patriot Akeem Ayers played 45.7 percent of New England’s defensive snaps and recorded a sack to go along with five total tackles. Ayers isn’t an add just yet, but keep an eye on him.
Like I predicted, Johnathan Cyprien was the primary beneficiary of Paul Posluszny’s season-ending injury. Cyprien put up an impressive 10 solo tackles. He’s well on his way to triple-digits for the season. We didn’t know exactly how the Jags would proceed at linebacker without Posluszny, but when the dust settled it was J.T. Thomas who emerged as the every-down option. Jacksonville used Geno Hayes and Dakota Watson in the base defense and Telvin Smith in the subpackages with Thomas. While Thomas didn’t have a huge statistical day, he played well and is the player to own in Jacksonville going forward.
Morgan Burnett was sidelined in Week 8, and we again saw Ha Ha Clinton-Dix starting and in an every-down role. Clinton-Dix posted eight total tackles (three solo) and is now in must-own territory. With the Packers on bye this week, Burnett has plenty of time to recover. We’ll check back in on his status next week.
The injuries keep coming for the Bears linebackers. Darryl Sharpton started in the middle and was on his way to a good game with four tackles in 13 snaps. But a hamstring injury forced Sharpton from the contest, and he’s like to miss at least the next two weeks. With Sharpton out, D.J. Williams and Christian Jones served as the every-down options, and both players being awarded assists on 8-of-10 tackles. This is a situation you’re better off avoiding. Chicago also lost Lamarr Houston for the season with a torn ACL last week. We’ll likely see Willie Young in an every-down role going forward, so bump Young up to a borderline DL1.
Justin Tuck managed to get back on the field after missing Week 7 with a knee injury, but he only played 14 snaps. Keep an eye on his practice status this week if you own him. If he’s limited all week I’d err toward sitting Tuck, as he again end up playing a limited role.
Week 8 Pass Rushers
Kyle Williams posted 1.5 sacks on seven QB pressures. Mario Williams also notched a half-sack on five QB pressures. ... Calais Campbell returned and managed seven QB pressures. He’s fine to insert back into your starting lineup. ... Carlos Dunlap had five QB pressures. You’re going to continue to use him as a DL1. ... Likewise, you’re going to want to keep Jurrell Casey in your starting lineup. The big man was very disruptive against the Texans producing six QB pressures. ... Paul Kruger went nuts for three sacks on six QB pressures, but his linebacker designation puts a damper on his fantasy value. You’re going to want to avoid Kruger outside of big-play scoring leagues. ... While it wasn’t as explosive as we expected, Gerald McCoy did manage a half-sack on six QB pressures. Michael Johnson also posted seven QB pressures. ... A week after posting his long awaited first sack of the season. Robert Quinn posted two more against the Chiefs. The sacks are going to start to roll from here. ... While he didn’t convert for a sack, Cliff Avril managed six QB pressures against the Panthers. ... Ever hear of this J.J. Watt guy? He posted two sacks on eight QB pressures and was absolutely fantastic against the Titans. ... Justin Houston posted three sacks on a massive 10 QB pressures. ... Cameron Wake recorded a sack on four QB pressures. He now has at least one sack in each of his last three games. ... Khalil Mack continued his stellar play, posting six QB pressures in Week 8. He also managed six total tackles (four solo). ... Cameron Jordan is back in our good graces after putting up two sacks on seven QB pressures.
Other Week 8 Observations
Daryl Smith posted 13 total tackles, but a whopping 10 of them were awarded as solos. You don’t like that for IDP purposes, but you do like his fumble recovery. ... C.J. Mosley also topped double-digits for the Ravens and picked off Andy Dalton on a bobbled pass that popped right into his hands. Both Mosley and Smith remain high-end LB2s going forward. ... Vontaze Burfict managed to make it through an entire game this week, but he got D’Qwelled in the box score with six of his seven tackles recorded as assists. ... Keenan Robinson posted 10 total tackles (six solo) and a sack. He’s now a borderline LB1 and has surpassed Perry Riley as the linebacker to own in Washington. ... Like we expected, Brandon Meriweather had a big game on Monday night, recording seven total tackles, two sacks, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. Meriweather is a boom-or-bust DB2 going forward. ... Michael Griffin posted eight total tackles and a sack against the Texans. He’s arguably in DB1 territory, so slip him onto your bench with the Titans on bye this week. ... Lavonte David has 14 total tackles in each of his last three games. He now has 80 for the season. ... Karlos Dansby got D’Qwelled with six of his eight total tackles recorded as assists. ... Both Glover Quin (eight tackles) and James Ihedigbo (seven tackles) put up strong numbers in Week 8. While Quin looks tempting, Ihedigbo has the higher tackle floor and would be the preferred option if you’re looking for a safety. ... Game script killed Lawrence Timmons’ fantasy value, as the linebacker managed just four total tackles against a Colts team that wasn’t able to get their run game going. ... If there was any question before Week 8, you should have no doubt that Eric Weddle is an elite fantasy defensive back after he went out and put up 11 total tackles and a forced fumble against the Broncos. ... There was opportunity in the Steelers’ offensive explosion, as D’Qwell Jackson put up 13 total tackles (eight solo). ... Sio Moore struggled in coverage against the Browns, but did put up a rock solid nine total tackles (eight solo). ... David Harris paced the Jets with 10 total tackles (eight solo) in Week 8. Both he and teammate Demario Davis should be considered LB3 options. ... Dawan Landry posted a disappointing five total tackles (one solo). His fantasy stock is trending downward, and he shouldn’t be considered as anything more than a DB2 option. ... We finally got a strong tackle performance out of Kenny Vaccaro. The second-year man posted his first double-digit tackle tally of the season with 10 against the Packers. ... The Eagles offense was a fantasy bonanza in Week 8, but the same can’t be said for the defense. Malcolm Jenkins had the biggest IDP day with five total tackles.
Guys I Like
DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks vs. Houston
Kendricks was back in action last week, but Philly had him on a pitch count. While you don’t like the fact that he played just 23 snaps, you do like it that Kendricks managed to avoid a setback. Barring any mishaps in practice this week, I expect Kendricks to be a full go for this one. Both he and Ryans get a great matchup against a run-heavy Texans offense that currently yields the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing linebackers.
D.J. Swearinger vs. Philadelphia
We saw double-digit tackles out of both Rashad Johnson (11) and Tony Jefferson (12) against the Eagles, so we’re going to want to continue to exploit this matchup with our defensive backs. That means Swearinger this week. The promising young safety hasn’t racked up many tackles this season, but he did display some big-play upside last week with a pick against the Titans. Swearinger is a high ceiling DB2 play this week.
Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis vs. New Orleans
Davis managed to top double-digit tackles last week, but it was a relatively quiet day for Kuechly. Fortunately for his IDP owners, Kuechly was able to record some late-game tackles to finish with seven (four solo) and a pass defensed. Don’t panic with Kuechly. Seattle is a terrible matchup for linebackers, and better days are ahead, including a strong matchup this week against a Saints team that gives up the third-most tackles per game to opposing linebackers.
Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins vs. Jacksonville
The Jags are one of only nine teams that have give up more than ten sacks to defensive ends this season, so you’re not even thinking about sitting Dunlap here. I’d also look to get Atkins in my lineup this week. With 1.5 sacks over the last two games, Atkins is starting to heat up. He’s moving much better than he was in the beginning of the season, so it looks like the ACL injury is in the rearview.
LaRon Landry vs. NY Giants
Mike Adams posted double-digit tackles, but don’t forget that Landry returns from suspension this week. Landry is the Indy safety to own going forward, and you’re going to want to plug him back in to your lineups immediately this week. The Giants have been one of the best matchups for defensive backs this season, with no team giving up more tackles per game to the position.
Guys I Don’t Like
The Dallas Linebackers vs. Arizona
As I mentioned in the injury section, with Justin Durant out for the season, we’re going to see Bruce Carter and Rolando McClain in every-down roles going forward. While I do like McClain as an LB2 option, I’d look for other options this week. The Cards are one of the poorer matchups for tackle producing linebackers.
Charles Woodson vs. Seattle
The NFL iron man has been a steady producer so far this season, but you’re going to want to lean away from starting him this week. The conservative Seattle offense is currently the worst fantasy matchup for defensive backs.
The Texans Linebackers vs. Philadelphia
With Brian Cushing sidelined last week, Mike Mohamed paced the Texans with 10 total tackles (eight solo). While the numbers look promising, I wouldn’t run out and grab him if Cushing remains out. Mohamed was not an every-down linebacker. He played only in the subpackages, but saw significant snaps since Houston was only in base for 12-of-61 snaps. Even if Cushing does get back on the field, I’d avoid this situation. He’s been lackluster at best this season, and faces the worst fantasy matchups for linebackers in the Eagles.
Charles Johnson vs. New Orleans
With three sacks in the last four games, Johnson has been performing well from a fantasy standpoint. However, he gets a very tough matchup on Thursday against a Saints team that just doesn’t give up sacks to defensive ends. They’ve only surrendered one sack to the position so far this season.
Reggie Nelson vs. Jacksonville
Sure, you could hope for a pick-six, but otherwise I wouldn’t expect a lot of fantasy production this weekend out of Nelson. No team yields fewer tackles per game to safeties than the Jags do this season.
