The PGA TOUR heads to Jack’s Place for this week’s Memorial Tournament.
Muirfield Village is the longtime host and there is plenty of course history to lean on for gamers this week. The probably with course history is sample size. You rarely have golfers playing the same number of events at a course and even when you do, those results can be heavily skewed by small samples.
To help support the history, we can also look at course-fit data. For Muirfield Village one area that pops is performance on tough courses.
Tough Course Crushers
This event attracts a strong field on a yearly basis but even with a strong field, the scoring stats paint a tough test.
The median field average scoring over the last five editions is 73 (+1 RTP). That makes it one of the toughest non-majors on the schedule.
What makes it so tough? There is a lot of water in play to bring big numbers into the equation. There is a large penalty for missing the fairway, so you need to avoid the rough as much as possible. The greens and pin positions can also be very tricky so you need to be precise with your irons as well because short-siding yourself is an auto-bogey or worse.
Here are the top performers in adjusted strokes gained per round on tough courses, over the last two years:
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay
Xander Schauffele
Keegan Bradley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Collin Morikawa
Viktor Hovland
Corey Conners
Jordan Spieth
Shane Lowry
Sungjae Im
Cameron Young
Chris Kirk
We can also look at performance versus baseline to see who shows the largest increase in performance compared to their typical scores:
Kurt Kitayama
Adam Schenk
Scottie Scheffler
Keegan Bradley
Chris Kirk
Akshay Bhatia
Rickie Fowler
Wyndham Clark
Davis Riley
David Lipsky
Sahith Theegala
Chez Reavie
Joseph Bramlett
Denny McCarthy
Corey Conners
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, and Chris Kirk.
Conners brings momentum to Muirfield Village
The Canadian arrives with a 5-for-5 record at the host course with a notable T13 last year. He went to school in Ohio (Kent State) so he should be comfortable with the grasses and overall climate of the area. More importantly, he enters the week with a wave of good results. He won the Valero Texas Open last month and just twirled a T8 at Quail Hollow followed by a T12 at Oak Hill. He was the 36-hole co-leader at Oak Hill. He’s positioned himself at T12 or better after six straight rounds and I like his chances to maintain that momentum as he heads to another tough track.
Scheffler is worth the salary
Scheffler is always priced at or near the top of the salary sheet and this week is no different. He enters on the heels of three straight top 5s but his consistency goes much deeper. He’s finished T12 or better in 15 straight worldwide events. On top of the recent form, Scheffler also landed a third-place finish at Muirfield Village in his most recent visit (2021). This will be his fourth straight week playing but I think there is merit in lock-and-loading him into lineups until he shows any sign of cooling off.
