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This week of excitement for the Memorial Tournament has been incredible. The PGA Tour and the rest of the golf world are eager to start this event so they can put the LIV Golf League news in the rearview mirror and push forward. I am excited about this week’s event at Muirfield Village. The course is magnificent yet challenging. This provides an opportunity for excellent golf viewing and capitalizing on taking down a massive GPP.
The highest-priced golfer on the board this week is Jon Rahm at $11,100. Rahm won the event in 2020 but was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID. With Scottie Scheffler not in the field, it makes sense for the World No. 2 to be the most expensive golfer this week. If you were to back Rahm, it would be hard for me to stop you. However, outside of his win at the Mexico Open, Rahm hasn’t been playing good golf. His putter has evaded him, and his work around the greens has been poor. I am looking in another direction for the golfer I am backing in the $10,000 range.
Below are the metrics I used when building my models:
- Strokes Gained: Total
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Driving Accuracy
Favorites/Value:
Xander Schauffele ($10,200): When checking for ownership, I am excited about the project ownership for Schauffele. There’s no surprise Rory McIlroy is projected to be the highest-owned golfer. He’s playing the most consistent golf out of anyone, and he’s the second favorite on the board. If I’m not attacking McIlroy this week, I’m all over Schauffele. He and Patrick Cantlay won the Zurich Classic; he followed it up with a fifth-place finish at the Byron Nelson and a 13th place finish at the PGA Championship.
He’s a great course, and I don’t mind spending the $10,200 on him if I am looking for leverage in this price range. Over his last five events, he’s gained strokes all over the golf course; SG: Tot +4.2, SG: T2G +5.1, SG: OTT +1.8, SG: APP +2.7, SG: ARG +0.6, and SG: P +1. Over his last 36 rounds compared to the field he’s top-20 in almost every metric that I used in my models. The one metric where he’s not top-20 in SG: ARG, and he’s 27th there. I expect a big week out of him this week.
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DraftKings Optimal Lineup (via NBC Sports EDGE+ DFS Tools)
Jon Rahm ($11,100)
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,100)
Harris English ($7,100)
Matt Jones ($6,700)
Min Woo Lee ($6,500)
Chan Kim ($6,200)
Collin Morikawa ($10,400) This is a tough spot. At the beginning of the week, I was certain Morikawa would be projected as a top-three highest-owned golfer. Those honors belong to McIlroy, Shane Lowry, and Cameron Young. From a modeling standpoint, it makes sense. If short-game is a heavily weighted metric, Morikawa won’t appear very high on models. It’s no secret Morikawa has been struggling with his putter. He’s lost strokes on the putting green in his last five events. At Charles Schwab, he lost -3.4 strokes putting and another -1.5 off-the-tee.
Without sounding like a broken record, putting prowess at Memorial isn’t overly crucial for success. Last year leading up to Memorial, he had lost strokes putting in five straight events. At Memorial in 2021, he gained +5.8 strokes putting. You get rewarded for quality approach shots into the greens here. That’s what Morikawa excels at. He gains a lot of strokes on approach and is a great ball striker. If he’s decent on the greens, he should be in contention again.
Tread Lightly:
Jon Rahm ($11,100): Rahm is the highest-priced golfer and will likely be the second-highest owned this week. I wouldn’t qualify him as a golfer that the best golf. Sure, he won the Mexico Open, but that was one of the weaker fields he will play on the PGA Tour. Now he’s playing in an event with a tougher field and won’t just sleepwalk his way to a victory. Like Morikawa, Rahm is a great ball striker. However, there is a big difference in the price tag and ownership between the two. He’s my tread lightly because you risk chalking out for a guy who might not win if he’s rostered.
Sleepers/Low-Tier Options:
Gary Woodland ($7,400): There must be another breakout moment for Gary Woodland. His play has been overly sporadic and likely disappointing if you ask him. He’s missed the cut in four of his last eight tournaments. His results are bracketed by solid play. Woodland has the tools to excel this week. Woodland is a good ball-striker, but he struggles from time to time with his irons. While typically good on approach, he lost strokes on approach at Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo. At Valero, he gained strokes everywhere but around the green. Outside of the missed cut at the Players, he was a great golfer during the Florida Swing. If you want to swing for the fences on a low-owned lost cost option Woodland could be a solid option. A bounce-back is likely for him this week.
Chris Kirk ($7,700): Kirk will not be a sleeper this week, and for a good reason. Kirk is coming off back-to-back solid weeks with a 15th place finish at Charles Schwab and a fifth-place finish at the PGA Championship. He’s ranked sixth on one of my models and fits the profile for the course. Kirk is good on approach and stellar around the greens. He’s an above-average ball-striker who is trending up. If you can stomach the high ownership, he should be considered at this price.
