As much as I’d like to think that the biggest news of this match week was Arsenal finally putting together something approximating defensive security AND attacking effectiveness in the same match, it isn’t even close. We’ll cover the short term benefits of the Gunners big win later in the column but how can we lead with anything other than the penalty imposed on Manchester City? Since the immediate effects of the Champions League ban – Pep potentially leaving, big players potentially leaving, implications for those chasing 5th this season, etc. – have been covered well elsewhere, I’m going to play out the thought experiment on what the real long-term ramifications of FFP actually having some teeth might be.
I think the prevailing wisdom about the short term consequences for Manchester City available elsewhere are fairly well reasoned out and we’ll take the following as likely outcomes in the immediate wake of the sanctions:
- Pep treads cautiously as the appeal to CAS plays out. If City “pull a Chelsea” and have their ban halved then he’ll consider sticking around assuming that they don’t win the Champions League this season (and how much fun would it be if some UEFA functionary has to hand the City leadership the trophy?)
- Sergio Agüero, coming toward the end of his career, campaigns to be sold this summer to chase the big trophy missing from his case (again, assuming they don’t win this summer). He is sold for the same type of money being thrown around for Aubameyang (£50million-ish).
- Leroy Sané is sold to Bayern for massive money (this was presumably going to happen anyway). We’ll call it £100million because round numbers are easy.
- One of the club’s other big attackers – De Bruyne or Sterling – decides that the risk of missing two Champions League competitions and the club potentially taking a big step back even after the ban is worth forcing a move over. As both are among the best players in the world and have contracts extending well into the new decade, it’s hard to see either going for any less than £150million.
- Fernandinho and David Silva leave as scheduled.
That would leave City with Gabriel Jesus, Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva, one of De Bruyne or Sterling, Phil Foden, Rodri, Laporte, and Ederson as the core of a talented group with no manager. The Mauricio Pochettino-to-replace-Pep drumbeat has already started and that seems like a reasonable approximation of what will likely happen (i.e., another strong, young manager with a track record will arrive to replace Guardiola). The club will have something on the order of £300million in proceeds from the above sales plus, you know, the war chest of crazy billions that got them in trouble in the first place. They also have a strong academy that seems to be ready to produce players like Foden and Sancho. Jayden Braaf seems to be next up if they can avoid another Sancho-like defection from a player who has made waves as well as headlines.
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As I look at the above, it feels a little bit like the end of Mourinho’s first run at Chelsea and I expect the long-term impact to be similar. Before the Special One flamed out at the Bridge it looked like the Blues dominion could extend forever powered by Mourinho’s exceptional management backed up by Abramovich’s deep pockets and a clever business model that would ensure long-term insulation from FFP through player sales.
After Mourinho’s fall, the Blues continued to be a very good side but they were no longer a dominant force in the Premier League. The generation that came in on the back of Petrodollars aged out and there were some strong replacements but it was a hit-and-miss proposition as were the managers that tried to replace the legend of Mourinho.
We’ve already seen City fall from record-breaking to merely very good this season. Part of that is due to Liverpool taking their turn at being record-breaking. Most of it is the inevitable erosion of City’s exceptional generation of stars. Taking a few steps back due to the penalties imposed by UEFA and the lost revenue from being absent from the Champions League will likely put City back on par with the likes of Spurs, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal when it comes to finances and the attractiveness of the proposition of playing there.
If City can improve their hit rate on transfers in then they can surely expect to stay in the top four domestically but they can’t put together strings of high profile (and expensive) misses like Benjamin Mendy, John Stones, Angelino, Nicolás Otamendi, and Joao Cancelo. They also can’t afford to let talents like Jaydon Sancho leave for next to nothing.
All of the above will give hope to the big clubs currently trailing City in the standings as well as the less financially well-off clubs taking runs at the top four like Leicester City, Sheffield United, and Wolves. Hope means a good case for spending in the summer. That should make the Premier League a lot more interesting for next season and beyond.
The Title Race
Zzzzzzzz. Wake me when the title race starts next season.
The Big Surprise
On my last trip to London for my day job, I was fortunate enough to connect with fellow NBC Sports pundit Joe Prince-Wright at Frank’s Sports Bar adjacent to Stamford Bridge before the Chelsea vs. Arsenal (don’t tell anyone that I was sitting in the home section because those were the tickets I could find). Joe and I started corresponding about how we might be able to supplement each other’s work with our respective points of view (his being an insider who has played the game professionally and has access players and back room staff and mine being, um, someone who watches an obscene number of matches on TV and cranks through a lot of numbers that correspond to fantasy value which, occasionally, offer insight into the real world of football as well). Our first collaboration was published on ProSoccerTalk.com web site last week under Joe’s byline.
In return for finding some numbers that help illustrate just how dominant Virgil Van Dijk has been this season, I asked Joe to see if he could share some inside scoop on Everton’s improvement with a focus on whether Dominic Calvert-Lewin has really taken a leap forward under Carlo Ancelotti or if this is just a nice run of form. Here’s what Joe’s research turned up:
This is an excellent reminder of how thin the margins are between a talent that can’t quite find his footing and a truly effective starter on a good team. It is reasonable to project good things going forward for Calvert-Lewin based on the talent that has always been evident and the environment that seems well-suited to bringing it out.
The Weekly Arsenal
Can you believe I made it this far without turning all attention to Arsenal? No, I can’t either. Wow! That was great. The first half was more of the same that we’ve seen from the Gunners with the defense playing well enough but the attackers clearly not being in sync or confident in themselves. With one headed goal from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang everything seemed to change. For the rest of the match the little things that had been going wrong in the attacking third all started going right. Saka’s pass to Pepe after his glorious nutmeg found Pepe who then found the goal. Ozil’s shot skidded past Dubravka rather than being repelled. Lacazette scuffed a shot horribly but it hit his standing foot and rebounded into the Magpies net.
If these are the things that needed to go right to get some struggling players back on track then, well, it’s better to be lucky than good sometimes. The weight being lifted from the squad was evident even watching on TV. If the Gunners can take this positive momentum and go on a run over the next month and a half of fixtures – Everton, West Ham, @Brighton, @Southampton, Norwich City – they could make a real run at fifth if Spurs or Chelsea sputter.
Before we move on to the next topic, it is a worth a word on Dani Ceballos. In his first start under Mikel Arteta he was excellent. He moved the ball quickly and, from his deep-lying position, helped minimize the number of heart-stopping passing sequences/turnovers as Arsenal tried to play out of the back. I’m not sure how I feel about the combination of Ceballos and Xhaka (even the new, improved Arteta version of Xhaka). It feels like there won’t be enough of a shield for the center backs between those two. Still, having an option like Ceballos to help unlock sides like the Magpies who park the bus like they’re a Mourinho tribute band is certainly a great change of pace.
My Other Favorites
Wolves and Leicester City are both struggling at this point in the season and it was fitting that they squared off against each other and it ended in a futile nil-nil draw. That about sums up both sides right now. Wolves will be the more upset about the outcome as they had a goal disallowed by VAR and played up a man after Choudhury was sent off in the second half.
Perhaps of more concern for Wolves is the fact that their line-up is pretty much healthy and they’re still struggling. Leicester City’s struggles are concurrent with the absence of Wilfried Ndidi and his return could see them back in good form and locking in Champions League football again.
Fantasy Ups and Downs
I could probably do the entire section on Arsenal players whose fantasy value appears to be far greater today than it was on Saturday but I’ll try to keep it limited.
Stock Down – Kepa was out of the line-up again for Chelsea and the Blues defense continued to struggle so despite my soccer crush on Reese James, it’s hard to get excited about anyone playing defense or goalkeeper for Frank’s side. [NOTE: Next year Reese, next year]
Stock Up – Bernd Leno looks like he’s poised to see his stock rise between Arsenal’s vastly improved play at the back and the upcoming schedule.
Stock Down – Kieran Tierney and Sead Kolasinac are going to have to a) get healthy and b) really show something if they’re going to displace Bukayo Saka as Arsenal’s starting left back. Now if only Saka were listed as a defender the fantasy world would really have something.
Stock Up – Ben Davies and Brandon Williams were both back in the line-up this week and should be on the rise. It’s tough to pick one or the other as the clear favorite. Davies appears to have less competition for his position with Danny Rose gone and Ryan Sessegnon not really settled (or a left back if we’re being honest) but Spurs defense has been surprisingly leaky even after some time for Mourinho’s approach to settle in. Williams is part of a defense at Manchester United that is playing better but it isn’t clear that he’s a sure starter at this point. Both are going in the right direction but neither are slam dunks by any means.
Stock Down – Things are going great at Everton these days, see the glowing words from JPW in the Big Surprise section above. That said, has anyone looked at Gylfi Sigurdsson’s fantasy production recently? Yikes. Here’s hoping that he gets a move back down the table a few spots over the summer and we are, once again, treated to the best from our Icelandic fantasy hero.
Stock Up – Bergwijn was everywhere for Spurs and Fernandes registered his first assist but how can this NOT go to the Arsenal trio of Dani Ceballos (going from being out in the cold to looking good in a start), Mesut Ozil (he scored for the first time in, like, forever), and Nicolas Pepe (a goal AND an assist and it could/should have been more if Nketiah had converted from close range). Of the three, Pepe is the one you should be focused on. The other two see their value rise but that’s somewhat damning by faint praise as their values were almost microscopic before Sunday.
Stock Down – Jamie Vardy hasn’t scored a goal since Week 18 and only has a single assist since then. Granted, his stock was sky high at that point and I’m not suggesting getting rid in draft leagues but I’m steering clear until Ndidi comes back and we get some proof that his absence is behind the Foxes struggles.
Stock Up – So many players to choose from. Benteke with his first of the season. DCL with his sixth in eight plus an assist. Lacazette back amongst the goals. Callum Wilson with his second in three after a LONG barren run. Matej Vydra, though, gets my prize for being such an afterthought that he makes all of the others on this list seem probable or even obvious as goal-scorers in comparison. Vydra’s stock, like Ceballos’, isn’t really anywhere in the “you should own him” range quite yet but at least he has measurable fantasy value which wasn’t true a few days ago.
The European Places
Beyond the top spot, it’s hard to get much of a handle on how things might shake out. The Foxes aren’t playing well but they still have a nine point gap over fourth place. Manchester City are second with a match in hand but do you even count them now that second place doesn’t mean anything to them? Chelsea seems to be actively trying to give a Champions League spot away despite the extra cushion City’s penalty affords them. Manchester United and Spurs are both logical candidates based on brand but neither are really impressing even when they win. Sheffield United keeps plugging along but everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. Wolves, Everton, and Arsenal have some ground to make up but it doesn’t seem outside of the realm of possibility. At this point, it is Liverpool then a massive gap and then Leicester City and then a free-for-all for the rest of the spots in European competition.
Liverpool
Leicester City
Spurs
Sheffield United
Everton
Arsenal
Yes, I’m probably WAY over exuberant about Arsenal beating up a bad Newcastle side. Also, yes, I renamed this section to reflect the oddity of second place/Manchester City not being part of the conversation unless the CAS bails them out.
Relegation
The Hornets looked to have bounced back after the appointment of Nigel Pearson but the bounce was short-lived. The third relegation spot looks set to be a scrum between West Ham, Villa, Bournemouth, and Brighton. Villa just seem to have a remarkable ability to crumble just when it looks like they’re playing well enough to comfortably avoid relegation.
Watford
Aston Villa
Norwich City
Waiver Wire Priorities
Goalkeeper – If Leno is available, pick him up. If not, Rui Patrício at home against Norwich City or Vincente Guaita at home against the Magpies would be next on my list of potentially available options.
Defender – There is almost certainly a starting Sheffield United defender available in your league and you should pick up whichever one it is for their home match-up against Brighton on Saturday.
Midfielder – If Pepe was dropped in your league, I’d be very much interested in picking him up. If you’re really struggling for options then I might even consider Saka despite the lack of defender clean sheet points.
Forward – Clearly, if Lacazette is available after his barren run, he’s a worthy pick-up. I’d also suggest that, even though he didn’t pick up a goal or an assist, Mbwana Samatta was everywhere for Aston Villa against Spurs and looks like he’ll be a threat every week.
What’s Next?
After the long and seemingly endless Match Week, we are back to what passes for a normal one that spans a mere three days. Saturday kicks off with Chelsea hosting Spurs in a match-up that will keep the pot stirring around the Champions League places. It also represents another Mourinho Derby although that’s getting a bit tired now that he’s on his third big side in the division. Saturday closes with Leicester City hosting Manchester City as the Foxes look to get back on track. Sunday’s most interesting match is a match-up of recent revival stories as Everton travel to Arsenal. On Monday, Liverpool are going to destroy West Ham at Anfield to close out the match week.
As always, enjoy the matches and good luck with your waiver claims.
