Well, Week 1 is in the books and, naturally, there is plenty to discuss, but before we dive into the FPL landscape, I ask that you would allow for a brief moment of commentary. Over the past weekend and stretching into the week, to say that there has been turmoil in reality would be a massive understatement. I understand it is not in my job description to write about anything beyond fantasy Premier League and that is the sort of content you are here to read. Still, I am a human being and to simply ignore something I find to be so significant, when I am given the opportunity to communicate for a living, feels more inappropriate than saying nothing at all. With that, I merely want to express my grief and honor the life of Heather Heyer.
Right, so now the smooth transition back into FPL. Guess what folks? Your old pal Fuzzy did not have the kind of Week 1 he was hoping for. The success of the week came down to one simple factor and it was always a risky roll of the dice. I built a squad that was without Romelu Lukaku, by far the highest-owned player in the game, who also happened to be, by far, the highest-captained player in the round. The only way my side was going to be effective right out of the gate was for Lukaku to be quiet or maybe score a goal with no bonus. But alas, he did the business, Manchester United proved to me they have a swagger about them that has been absent for years, and the gameweek ended with a giant egg on my face. Speaking of egg, the situation for me was made worse because I backed Harry Kane‘s goose egg instead. I remember FPL’s official Twitter account posting a tweet following the end of the round saying of the top 12 players that were captained, only three didn’t return something. Naturally, Kane was one of them. I say “naturally” because I am coming off of a 2016/2017 FPL season where my captaincy success rate was shockingly low. It appears I cannot shake that nasty trend.
Perhaps based in logic, perhaps more steeped in emotion, probably a combination of both, I decided to take swift action with the state of my squad by taking a bad round and lowering the score even more. I took an eight point hit. Normally, I do not go into too much detail the in’s and out’s of my own side, outside of building an initial squad or building a wildcard during the run-in. But, I wanted to break down this move I made because I want to make an argument that sometimes a significant points hit is worth the gamble. Here is the scenario: My front three are Kane, Gabriel Jesus and Ollie McBurnie. To help explain everything in context, I have de Bruyne, Salah, Alli, Willian and Tom Carroll in my midfield. Now, after Week 1 and the way the FPL transfer market was behaving, one transfer seemed paramount - I needed to have Lukaku post-haste. I could not afford to see another haul on the teams already way ahead of me and his price was already on the verge of rising by Monday night. The logical conclusion one might think is to swap Kane out for him. It can be done with the one FT, I pocket cash, and Kane’s price isn’t rising anytime soon at the rate Lukaku’s is now. Theoretically, I could switch Lukaku back to Kane in Week 3 if I so felt fit, and maybe earn a .1 profit on the Belgian in the process. The other idea was to replace Jesus, though this would require at least a 4 point hit, as I would need to filter 1m from somewhere else. But then I said to myself, of de Bruyne and Jesus, which one would I rather keep and trust if I want a piece of City’s attack? The answer was easy...Jesus. Having watched the City match, I made a note that KdB was on the chopping block.
My pulse began to race. Can I pull a double move where I take out the useless McBurnie for Lukaku and downgrade KdB to a useable budget midfielder. The answer, at first, was “no”. I was still 1.5m short to make that move for even a minimum-priced midfielder. I suppose that is the end of that idea then. The rest of my squad did fine for me over the weekend, so removing one of them at a cost of four points and I still liked the balance of the side in general. And then, it dawned on me. The key to unlock the move lay in the hands of one Phil Jones. I started the season with Antonio Valencia in my side, my most expensive defender by 1.5m. I wanted to own a good piece of that United back. Building up to Week 1, much was discussed and the information made sense that Jones looked set to be a starter for Jose Mourinho. But, because of a plethora of options in that area of the pitch, so many options that new toy Victor Lindleof couldn’t even find space on the bench, i felt it too risky to start the season with Jones. I am now ready to give it a chance. United were strong at the back Week 1, I still believe in their defense over the course of the season and Jones has an inadvertent benefit of being suspended for their first CL group stage match, so he seems set up to be steady presence in league games and perhaps Mourinho will look at Europe and domestic cup action as the opportunity to start the likes of Chris Smalling. To end this three-player swap, de Bruyne was downgraded to Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who will, for now, platoon with Tom Carroll as my sixth attacking option. Yes, RLC did not return anything in Week 1, but, for what it’s worth, he was tops among his teammates in the bonus point system so, as poor as Palace were, he shouldn’t be the first player Frank de Boer is looking to switch out.
So there you have it. Yes, eight points are gone that I will not get back, but I had a bad round of 49 points anyway. To look at it now as a bad round of 41 points, but I am now heading into Week 2 with a front three of Kane, Lukaku and Jesus, I have managed to keep and not downgrade Man United defensive coverage and I turned a “never-will-start” Ollie McBurnie into an “always will start” Loftus-Cheek, there is reason for optimism. I also have 36 weeks to go to after this one to find a stroke of luck that may cover up this early spending of points. Normally, I try to reserve my transfers until the last possible minute, but sometimes the best thing to do is to act immediately or not at all. I would love to know some of the twists and turns of your Week 1. Send me a line on Twitter to discuss.
For now though, it is time to dive into the weekly picks. It is the same structure as last season and for those new to the column, a brief explanation follows....
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TO HAVE AND TO HOLD
So now it is time to look at the players to think about ahead of Week 4. As a reminder, there are four categories of players which I feel are worth mentioning week to week when making decisions about transfers....
1) Players to buy
2) Players to sell
3) Players to hold onto
4) Players to avoid buying
I will also include later in the section, my top choices for the captain’s armband. While I will consider every player from A to Z, you will normally find the usual suspects there.
Right, so let’s dive in...
GOALKEEPERS
*Just as a reminder, keepers should always be the last position to think about using transfers for, unless there is an urgent need. So, when you see who I have listed here, bear in mind that my keeper advice does not carry as much weight as the outfield positions.
Player to buy: Fraser Forster - I am getting the impression that the Saints defense are going to rack up points in the early months of the season. If you are on a premium keeper you aren’t happy with and it’s the only thing you want to change (Cech or Courtois perhaps) and you insist on spending your first transfer at this position, which I don’t recommend, then I would back Forster.
Player to sell: Wayne Hennessey - Cannot stress enough how silly it is to turn one’s attention to this position as the first place to make changes but I can see a reason for any Hennessey owners to jump ship immediately. If the Eagles ship three that easily at home to Huddersfield, it does not bode well for what “should” be tougher fixtures. Away to Anfield this weekend won’t help and you want to swap out for another 4.5m option before that option goes up .1m or Hennessey goes down .1m.
Player to hold: All keepers - Unless your situation is quite fortunate, you should be looking to make transfers elsewhere. Even if you are fortunate, and every outfield player pleased you with only your keeper disappointing, I’d rather pocket the transfer and have two in store for Week 3. If you took the risk of buying only Rob Elliot and another 4.0m keeper and Newcastle go out this week and bring in a new #1, which they are expected to do before the window closes, then you would have a reason to address the position. Otherwise, leave well enough alone here.
Player to avoid: Lukasz Fabianski - A nice clean sheet start for Fabianski and the Swans but I am not buying into them being one of the better defensive sides, even in the budget tier, in the league quite yet, and I certainly wouldn’t want to buy him the week he goes up against Lukaku. It’s still important to monitor saves when keepers get their clean sheets to see how much activity and potential save points they might get in weeks they don’t keep things clean. Only two saves for the Swansea shot-stopper. He will probably stop a couple more than that against United but he’s also NOT going to stop a couple in all likelihood.
DEFENDERS
Player to buy: Sead Kolasinac - How effective Arsenal are going to be defensively remains to be seen and Week 1 was not a positive indication but there is no denying what looks to be a never-ending attacking force from Kolasinac, who was all of about three feet from the goal line before shoveling a pass off for an assist. Assists do not ignite bandwagons the way goals do and because Arsenal shipped three goals, most managers are not thinking of Gunners defensively. But you should get in early on this kid. He seems to be .5m underpriced as it stands.
Player to sell: Ashley Williams - If you built your initial squad without much foresight beyond Week 1, you may have fallen into the trap of investing in an Everton defender. Hopefully, you didn’t fall into a real quagmire with Williams, who Ronald Koeman decided to remove during halftime of the Toffees win as a “tactical decision”. This is not encouraging news going forward. Koeman does like to tinker with formation and if he wants to drop one of his three center backs in his usual formation mid-match, it appears Williams is the first to take a seat. That is FPL poison, especially for a defender, where playing at least 60 minutes is paramount. The schedule is brutal anyway so don’t feel to bad if you bought Williams but go ahead and cut ties now.
Player to hold: James Milner - If you began the season with Milner, I think you give it one more week to see if Klopp puts him back in the XI. There were a lot of things the Reds didn’t get right on their trip to Watford last weekend and, in my view, the steady veteran influence of Milner might have been what was lacking, whether his place is at left back or his more natural midfield role. I am not ready to say he has lost a place in this XI. I think, assuming fitness, he is going to start 30 league games this season. Time will tell, but I just think you give the veteran one more week, because the potential in a home match against a Palace side that got roasted by Huddersfield is too strong. If Milner is not in the Week 2 XI, you have my full blessings to part ways.
Player to avoid: Danilo - City are out to prove this season that they are a force to be reckoned with defensively after a shoddy display by their standards in the previous campaign, and they got that notion off on the right foot with an opening day clean sheet. Those looking for a cheap way in see that 5.5m is the cutoff price and the options in that bracket are John Stones, who is going to take some time to truly trust after last season’s display, and Danilo, who one may be more tempted by as he plays out on the wing. One problem though - Benjamin Mendy. The role is Danilo’s for now but Mendy is projected to be the preferred option when fit and fitness is approaching fast, so an investment in Danilo may be too short-term to validate.
MIDFIELDERS
Player to buy: Aaron Mooy - Looking for that early bargain midfielder that had a nice return but still remains under the radar thanks to teammate Steve Mounie nabbing the headlines? Look no further than former Chelsea man Mooy, who could wind up the best player in his price bracket this season, should Huddersfield be as sharp as they looked in Week 1. He is the Terriers main free kick specialist and would come to no surprise if he ended the season as the club’s top assist man. Huddersfield also have the benefit of a kind fun of fixtures ahead, including three of the next five at home to Newcastle, Southampton and Leicester.
Player to sell: Kevin de Bruyne - Keep in mind that when I suggest selling a player of de Bruyne’s class, there is every possible chance he puts up a cricket score the following week. Watching his involvment in Week 1 though, especially in contrast to what I saw of him in preseason, and thinking about how expensive he is when premium strikers seem to dangerous not to own while premium midfielders like Alexs Sanchez and Eden Hazard are not even on our radars quite yet. City attacking coverage is something I think everyone should have yet the only two options I feel safe about in the FPL format are de Bruyne and Jesus. If you went for the luxury of both like I did, I think it is ok to let go of de Bruyne. Again, he is in a class where he can come good at any time, so do not interpret this as an overreaction to one game. But when dealing with premium midfielders, I feel its the area of the squad that deserves the most transfer activity over the season. When you make that sort of investment, you want an ideal situation. I am sure KdB will be back in my side a little down the road.
Player to hold: James Ward-Prowse - No return for the budget midfielder, or any attacking Saint for that matter in Week 1, but there is reason to keep the faith. Last season, FPL introduced the ICT index and is a very useful tool when looking at players to buy. ICT is an acronym for Influence, Creativity and Threat combining various contributions to indicate how much effective a player is in each individual category and as an amalgamation of all three. I always look at the threat first, which is the best indicator of a player’s potential to find the net. In Week 1, only two midfielders had a higher threat score across the entire league and they both cashed in - Mohamed Salah and Christian Eriksen. That is good company, especially when you consider JWP’s price and fantastic fixtures in front of him. Stay put. Read more about how to use the ICT index here.
Player to avoid: Gyfli Sigurdsson - Siggy now has a new home and that can only mean good things for FPL. Gyfli’s game is perfect for the FPL game and his returns should be bountiful at Everton. However, he arrives to the Toffees in time for Week 2, which is the start of a brutal run of games for his new club. Three of the next four are on the road - the opponents include both Manchester sides, the reigning title-winners Chelsea, and runner-ups Tottenham. Sure, Chelsea at the moment do not look as formidable as they did before the Burnley meltdown, but it is still four tough weeks when set up in a row. His current 6% ownership means even if he does blow up right out of the gate, it won’t hurt you too bad to be without.
FORWARDS
Player to buy: Steve Mounie - Maybe it feels like i am knee-jerking by nominating two Huddersfield players as players to buy after Week 1. After all, it is only one game and who is to say the result had as much to do with a poor performance from Palace as it was a brilliant one from the Terriers? Watching the match though, a couple of things appear clear no matter who the opponent is - one, when they work the ball in the final third, Mounie is active and his teammates are looking for him. That has no reason to change. Two, when on the ball, he certainly looked poised. He wasn’t just taking advantage of Palace mistakes, he was giving them trouble enough himself. If you are looking to build a traditional looking side which would normally include a budget third striker, then Mounie looks the one to tie your wagon to. As mentioned earlier, its a nice run of fixtures for Huddersfield as well, starting with their home opener against a Newcastle side already missing half of their preferred defensive line. Go for it.
Player to sell: Christian Benteke - I felt Benteke was a half million or so overpriced when the game launched this season and, after witnessing Palace’s opening display, I cannot justify 8m invested in a forward that has just lost his best supplier in Wilfried Zaha for perhaps a month, is not even on penalty duties, and has shown a penchant for going “silent” for long stretches of time. I could rattle off half a dozen options who are cheaper and in a position I feel to outscore Benteke for many weeks to come.
Player to hold: Harry Kane - Kane has yet to score a league goal in the month of August...ever. News flash, this weekend’s match still falls under that month. But, stats like that hold very little merit for me. For instance, last season, what was more influential in Kane’s emergence from a slow start was the return of Mousa Dembele. Kane’s scoring record with Dembele on the pitch versus off is night and day and that stat proved rather key. Yes, it was the worst case scenario for the game’s most expensive player - no attacking returns and a yellow card to twist the knife a bit more. But, we are talking about the two-time reigning Golden Boot winner here folks, who is all the age of 24. He still had plenty of involvement in and around the area and one of his shots hit the post. He will be looking to exploit a patchwork Chelsea side in Tottenham’s “home” opener. I know he is easy to want to sell because of that price tag when he doesn’t come good, but I reckon it won’t take long for all to remember why we have Harry in our sides to begin with.
Player to avoid: Alvaro Morata - Chelsea’s big forward signing debuts with a double digit haul and he managed to do it without even starting the game, what could possibly steer me away from Morata? Well, a few things. First, despite Morata’s efforts, Chelsea as a whole came out stumbling in Week 1 in epic fashion and a trip to face Tottenham in Week 2, with a couple of key figures suspended, doesn’t seem like the right time to buy any of their players. Plus, he is still too expensive an option to have uncertainty surrounding his playing time for now while so many other expensive forwards are safe and scoring. It is certainly encouraging to see Morata get off to a good FPL start but it may be a while before I’d recommend buying him.
TOP CAPTAIN CHOICES
2) Harry Kane
3) Mohamed Salah
4) Roberto Firmino
5) Jamie Vardy
That’s it from me this week folks. Please, bear in mind much can change between the publishing of this column and the FPL deadline Saturday morning. Remember, some injuries are not revealed until just before the deadline. Always try to refrain from executing your transfers for as long as possible to avoid wasting it on a player who turns out to have had a problem in training. That said, if you only have just enough money for the player you are looking to bring in and that player is at risk of rising in price, then sometimes you need to take a calculated risk and hope the fantasy gods will be kind to you.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
