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The Yankees have hope: they just need to get the series back to Texas

Nick Swisher

New York Yankees’ Nick Swisher avoids an inside pitch from Texas Rangers pitcher Darren Oliver in the eighth inning of Game 4 of baseball’s American League Championship Series Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2010, in New York. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

AP

The Yankees certainly have their backs up against the wall. A 14.6 % chance of winning the series if you believe Rational Pastime. And to do that they have to channel their inner-2004 Boston Red Sox, and that may be simply unpalatable for them. Tough break, ya know?

But hey, maybe their chances are a tad better if they can just steal one this afternoon. Why? Because that sends it back to Texas, and if that happens, recent history -- which probably means little, but which is all the hope a Yankees fan can ask for right now -- favors them. Check out the home records in the AL playoffs so far:

Rays: 0-3
Twins: 0-2
Rangers: 1-3
Yankees: 1-2

CC Sabathia + the vagaries of small sample size fate are on their side!

(thanks to reader Johnny T. for the heads up on the home records)