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Is your favorite driver headed for a crash in the Daytona 500?

The 3rd Annual Sprint Unlimited at Daytona

The 3rd Annual Sprint Unlimited at Daytona

Robert Laberge

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. - Nothing is certain, but CNBC’s Eric Chemi has analyzed crash statistics for recent restrictor-plate races and has some interesting statistics on who is likely to be involved in a crash in Sunday’s Daytona 500.

Chemi writes: “According to 2001-14 race data, analyzed for CNBC by the engineers at, a leading NASCAR-data analysis firm, we know now that on average, 54 percent of drivers will be involved in a crash at a single restrictor-plate race.

“Most drivers find themselves in the 40-60 percent range, just around the series average. At “almost 50 percent,” it’s basically a coin flip whether or not they can make it through the race unscathed. But some names stand out more than others - Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth tend to do a good job of staying safe, each with a crash rate at about 40 percent or less. Unsurprisingly, these drivers have won many plate races - and almost all of them have their own Daytona 500 victory.

“On the other hand, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski are among the more well-known drivers who all crash out over 60 percent of the time, worse than the series average. It figures these guys don’t have that many plate race wins—including a grand total of zero Daytona 500s.’’

For more, check out Chemi’s story.

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