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Aaron Rodgers trade likely will happen three weeks from tonight, during round two

Mike Florio and Chris Simms examine what the conditions of the pick the Packers will get next year for Aaron Rodgers should be, and how those potentially could change if the QB plays for two years.

Several weeks ago, some were surprised by the notion that a trade of Aaron Rodgers from the Packers to the Jets wouldn’t happen until the draft. At this point, any other outcome would be a surprise.

The draft starts in 20 days, with round one. Round two starts three weeks from tonight. Given that the presumed package of picks starts with a second-rounder in 2023, and in light of the reality that negotiations in any industry last until the moment the clock strikes midnight, it makes no sense at this point to do the deal at any point before round two arrives.

Frankly, it makes plenty of sense at this point to not agree to the trade until the pick the Packers will be acquiring is on the clock.

Currently, the Jets hold consecutive second-round picks, No. 42 (via the Elijah Moore trade to Cleveland) and No. 43. That will give the Jets, as a practical matter, 10 minutes once pick No. 42 is on the clock to do the deal.

That’s how the Packers should want it, frankly. As a general proposition of draft strategy, it always makes sense to acquire a pick when that pick is on the clock. If the team gets the pick before the time comes to use it, the teams drafting behind that spot will start wondering: (1) who the Packers may be taking; and (2) whether to leapfrog them.

Of course, it’s probably a safe assumption that the Packers will be picking at No. 42 or No. 43. But it’s not official until it’s official. At this point, why make it official before the last possible minute?