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Fitzpatrick deal has phony second year, for cap purposes

New England Patriots v New York Jets

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 27: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the New York Jets runs onto the field against the New England Patriots before their game at MetLife Stadium on December 27, 2015 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

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Often when surmising, I surmise incorrectly. Last night, I surmised that Ryan Fitzpatrick’s new one-year contract has a phony second or third year, in order to shrink the 2016 cap hit below $12 million.

For change, I surmised correctly.

Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com reports that Fitzpatrick’s contract covers two years, but that the second year will evaporate. With a $10 million signing bonus and $2 million base salary, Fitzpatrick’s cap hit will be $7 million this year and $5 million next year.

This means that, if he’s not on the team in 2017, he’ll count for at least $5 million. If he is on the team, he’ll count for $5 million plus whatever his cap hit is on his next contract.

He also could count for up to another $3 million next year, if he hits the various triggers based on playing time and postseason success. The Jets need to win the Super Bowl before Fitzpatrick gets the full $3 million.