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Jack Del Rio has a 50-50 shot of not returning

Bucs' Dirk Koetter, Broncos' Vance Joseph, Raiders' Jack Del Rio and Titans' Mike Mularkey are among the many coaches fighting to prove they should keep their jobs.

Yes, we have fun from time to time with reports that amount to something potentially happening, “unless it doesn’t.” But, sometimes, something actually does represent an actual 50-50 proposition.

And that’s precisely what’s going on with Raiders coach Jack Del Rio. Per a league source, it’s currently a coin flip for Del Rio.

Yes, Del Rio signed an extension after the team made it to the playoffs in 2016. Without knowing how much of the deal is fully guaranteed, however, it’s impossible to know what it would cost to make a change.

The real question is what would it cost to not make a change? The Raiders will spend at least one more year in Oakland, and they’ll need to create enough excitement to get people to keep showing up. (Another year with Oakland native Marshawn Lynch may not be enough.) Beyond that, what buzz will this team take to wherever it will be in 2019 or to Las Vegas, whenever they get there?

Regardless of what happens with Del Rio, it’s believed to be a near certainty that offensive coordinator Todd Downing will be gone. Del Rio’s fate ultimately could turn on what he does in a pair of late-season games that, even with wins, may not be enough to get the team back to the playoffs.