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Making sense of the Von Miller talks on the eve of the deadline

Minnesota Vikings v Denver Broncos

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 04: Outside linebacker Von Miller #58 of the Denver Broncos celebrates a tackle against the Minnesota Vikings at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on October 4, 2015 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Vikings 23-20. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

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Even though the talks have been dysfunctional at times and still haven’t consisted of a meaningful, sustained, back-and-forth negotiations, there’s an emerging sense that the Broncos and linebacker Von Miller will have a six-year, $114.5 million contract in place by this time Friday night.

It’s still difficult to track down specifics as to how much guaranteed money the Broncos are offering, but there’s a sense among some league insiders not directly involved in the communications that the Broncos have put their best offer on the table, that the total guarantee approaches if not exceeds $70 million, and that the team is confident Miller will accept it on Friday.

Von Miller wouldn’t (or perhaps more accurately shouldn’t) accept the offer if he knows with a reasonable degree of certainty that, after sitting out all of 2016 and giving up $14 million under the tag, a team would be willing both to give up a first-round and a third-round pick to get him, and would be willing to sign him to a six-year, $128 million deal with a better collection of guarantees than what the Broncos are currently offering.

Technically, Miller shouldn’t know whether another team would indeed make an offer of that magnitude, but it would be naive to assume that there have been no hypothetical conversations about what another team would pay Miller in 2017.

Regardless, the Broncos are believed to be confident that Miller will take the money and stay with the team, regardless of his feelings about the franchise tag or his disdain for the manner in which the team has handled the discussions. Ultimately, the Broncos like him enough to give him what would be the biggest contract ever paid to a non-quarterback, and that should count for something.

UPDATE 8:11 p.m. ET: Mike Klis of 9news.com has reported that the offer stands at $70 million in guarantees, and that the Broncos won’t move any higher. The question remains whether Miller will take it.