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PFT’s NFL Week 12 2022 picks

Mike Florio defends his power rankings to Chris Simms, from the Chiefs securing the top spot on the list, to why the 7-3 Titans are No. 12, to the Vikings plummeting and more.

We both had a pretty good week. MDS had a slightly better one.

He went 11-3 in picking the 14 games. I went 10-4. He picked up a game in the head-to-head chase.

I still have an 11-game lead. Through 11 weeks, I’m 105-58-1. MDS is 94-69-1.

Here are our picks for Week 12. For the second straight week, we disagree on three games.

Bills (-9.5) at Lions

MDS’s take: The annual Detroit Thanksgiving bloodbath may not be quite as ugly for the home team this year, as the Lions are riding a three-game winning streak. But it’s awfully tough to imagine them beating the Bills.

MDS’s pick: Bills 20, Lions 13.

Florio’s take: The Lions will try to feast on kneecaps before turkey. If it was anyone but the Bills, that three-game winning streak would have a great chance of extending to four.

Florio’s pick: Bills 27, Lions 20.

Giants (+9) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Giants deserve credit for their hot start to the season, but this is just not a playoff roster, and I see them fading down the stretch.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 17.

Florio’s take: Assuming the Cowboys still have some of what they had in Minnesota, this should be a lot easier than round one.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 31, Giants 20.

Patriots (+2.5) at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Vikings can’t possibly look as bad on Thanksgiving night as they did on Sunday against the Cowboys. They’ll bounce back with a hard-fought win.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 13, Patriots 10.

Florio’s take: The Patriots held the Colts to three points and got Frank Reich fired. The Patriots held the Jets to three points and got Zach Wilson benched. Who from the Vikings will be losing their job after Thursday night?

Florio’s pick: Patriots 17, Vikings 13.

Buccaneers (-3.5) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Bucs come off their bye after a two-game winning streak, and I think they’re going to be a dangerous team down the stretch. Certainly a better team than the Browns.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Browns 20.

Florio’s take: The Bucs are gaining momentum. The Browns are limping to the finish line of Deshaun Watson’s suspension.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Browns 17.

Bengals (-1.5) at Titans

MDS’s take: The Bengals have been playing surprisingly well since Ja’Marr Chase’s injury, and I think we’re going to see Cincinnati’s offense rolling down the stretch.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 30, Titans 27.

Florio’s take: Once again, the betting line fails to respect the Titans. Once again, they prove Vegas wrong.

Florio’s pick: Titans 27, Bengals 23.

Texans (+13) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: I was surprised the spread on this game was “only” 13 points. It’s hard for me to see the Texans keeping it remotely close against the Dolphins.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 38, Texans 10.

Florio’s take: Miami is surging. The Texans make their fans want to do some purging.

Florio’s pick:Dolphins 34, Texans 14.

Bears (+4.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: Justin Fields vs. Zach Wilson would be an interesting second-year quarterback matchup, although it’s unclear right now whether either of them will play on Sunday. Without knowing the quarterbacks it’s a tough game to pick, but I see the Jets as having the better defense and therefore coming away with a low-scoring win.

MDS’s pick: Jets 14, Bears 13.

Florio’s take: In making this pick, I’m assuming Justin Fields won’t play. Given that the Bears have had a hard time winning with him, good luck winning without him.

Florio’s pick: Jets 17, Bears 10.

Falcons (+4) at Commanders

MDS’s take: Since turning to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, the Commanders have come alive. I think they’re going to keep it going, while the Falcons are close to falling out of playoff contention.

MDS’s pick: Commanders 24, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take: Washington needs to win this one, because the schedule gets a lot tougher -- and stays that way -- after this weekend.

Florio’s pick: Commanders 23, Falcons 20.

Broncos (-2.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: Two bad teams going nowhere meet in what is unlikely to be an entertaining game, but as Nathaniel Hackett would say, someone has to win, and I think it will be his team.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 18, Panthers 15.

Florio’s take: If the Broncos can’t win this one, coach Nathaniel Hackett should just stay in Charlotte.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 14, Panthers 10.

Ravens (-4) at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Ravens’ offense was slow and shaky in last week’s ugly win over the Panthers. I think they’ll right the ship this time around.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: Baltimore is a lot better than last week’s showing suggests.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 31, Jaguars 21.

Chargers (-4.5) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have been disappointing, but the Chargers feel like a team that could still make a run at the playoffs, while the Cardinals feel like they’re out of it.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 24, Cardinals 17.

Florio’s take: The Cardinals are on the verge of coming apart at the seams. The Chargers are good enough to beat an inferior foe.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 28, Cardinals 20.

Raiders (+3.5) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: I don’t think Geno Smith’s success this season has been a fluke; he’s going to keep playing at a high level down the stretch as the Seahawks fight for a playoff berth.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 28, Raiders 21.

Florio’s take: The Seahawks are rested and good enough to use their home-field advantage to easily get to 7-4.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 30, Raiders 23.

Rams (+14.5) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: It’s not often that a defending Super Bowl champion is a two-touchdown underdog, but it’s also not often that a defending Super Bowl champion is as bad as this Rams team. The Chiefs will cruise.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 40, Rams 23.

Florio’s take: Has a defending Super Bowl champ even been such a steep underdog? It actually should be more than it is.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 38, Rams 17.

Saints (+9) at 49ers

MDS’s take: I love the way Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers’ offense are playing right now, and I think they’ll turn in another high-scoring win on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 30, Saints 20.

Florio’s take: The Saints host another old-school NFC West rival from pre-2002. It won’t go as easily as it did against the Rams.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 31, Saints 17.

Packers (+7) at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Eagles haven’t been great the last couple weeks, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look like they’re ready to pack it in on the season.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 20, Packers 10.

Florio’s take: The Eagles won’t want to see Aaron Rodgers in the postseason. The best way to keep that from happening will be to knock him out of it, now.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 27, Packers 17.

Steelers (+2.5) at Colts

MDS’s take: This game looked better when they scheduled it for prime time than it looks now. The Colts win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Colts 17, Steelers 16.

Florio’s take: Mike Tomlin is two losses away from his first ever losing season. He won’t go there quietly.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 20, Colts 17.