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PFT’s NFL Week Seven 2021 picks

Mike Florio and Chris Simms share what they're most excited about in Week 7, including when Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford face each other—and their former teams.

We both had a solid week in Week Six, our best of the year. I went 11-3, and MDS hit on 10 of 14 games.

For the year, I’m at 60-34. MDS is now 58-36.

This week, we have one disagreement. Scroll away and find it.

Broncos (+2) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Broncos’ strong start is now looking like a mirage. I think they’ll be competitive against an injury-riddled Browns team but ultimately come up short.

MDS’s pick: Browns 21, Broncos 20.

Florio’s take: The Browns are banged up, but they’re also desperate. A fourth loss with the Steelers and Bengals coming could doom them. It helps that the Denver offense is disintegrating.

Florio’s pick: Browns 24, Broncos 21.

Bengals (+6) at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Bengals have an opportunity to make a huge statement against the AFC North favorites. I’m tempted to pick the upset but ultimately I think the Ravens find a way to win this one.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 17.

Florio’s take: The Bengals are legitimate, playoff contenders, but they’re getting the Ravens at a very bad time.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 17.

Panthers (-2.5) at Giants

MDS’s take: Sam Darnold is coming back to earth after a hot start, but I still think the Panthers are the better top-to-bottom team here.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 20, Giants 14.

Florio’s take: It’s the Dave Gettleman Bowl. His former team is currently a little bit better than his former one.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 24, Giants 20.

Washington (+9.5) at Packers

MDS’s take: This Washington defense has gone from a huge strength in 2020 to a huge liability in 2021. Aaron Rodgers will have a big game on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Packers 35, Washington 21.

Florio’s take: Green Bay continues to show that Week One was an aberration. For Washington, 2020 apparently was the aberration.

Florio’s pick: Packers 31, Washington 17.

Chiefs (-5.5) at Titans

MDS’s take: The Titans made a statement on Monday night by beating one of the AFC co-favorites. Can they beat the other one on Sunday? I think they’ll come up short as Patrick Mahomes has a big game.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 28, Titans 27.

Florio’s take: The Chiefs have to show that they can beat a good team. The Titans are sufficiently inconsistent to follow a win over the Bills by stumbling against the Chiefs.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 21.

Falcons (-2.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: These are two of the worst teams in the NFL, but I’ll pick the Falcons because I trust Matt Ryan a lot more than I trust Tua Tagovailoa.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 24, Dolphins 17.

Florio’s take: The renewed Deshaun Watson rumors will do little to draw better performance out of Tua Tagovailoa. Plus, Atlanta got a bye after playing in London, and Miami didn’t want one.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 27, Dolphins 20.

Jets (+7) at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots will complete their season sweep of the Jets with an easy win.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 30, Jets 14.

Florio’s take: The Patriots finally get a win at home, and Zach Wilson once again sees ghosts, a week before Halloween.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Jets 13.

Lions (+15) at Rams

MDS’s take: Matthew Stafford vs. Jared Goff is a mismatch.

MDS’s pick: Rams 38, Lions 13.

Florio’s take: The Rams know Jared Goff better than anyone. Which is why he’s no longer a Ram.

Florio’s pick: Rams 41, Lions 10.

Eagles (+3) at Raiders

MDS’s take: Not only did the Raiders play well last week in the wake of Jon Gruden’s firing, but I have a hunch they may prove to be better off without Gruden for the rest of the season. I like them to go 2-0 under Rich Bisaccia.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 28, Eagles 21.

Florio’s take: Chris Simms has said that, when playing for Jon Gruden, games were easier than practices because Simms didn’t have to constantly listen to Gruden. Maybe that theory applies to Derek Carr, too, when it comes to no longer having to listen to Gruden during practices or games.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Eagles 20.

Bears (+12.5) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Tom Brady is having one of his best statistical seasons, an absolutely amazing achievement for a 44-year old. Justin Fields, at age 22, isn’t there yet.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: One of Tom Brady’s biggest embarrassments of 2020 happened against the Bears. Even though it was his own fault for losing track of downs, he’ll relish the chance to get revenge -- and to once again not shake Nick Foles’s hand.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 34, Bears 17.

Texans (+17.5) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Cardinals win this one easily, but I think they’ll take their foot off the gas just enough in the fourth quarter for the Texans to win against the spread.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 31, Texans 20.

Florio’s take: This would be a potential trap game, but for J.J. Watt’s chance to stick it to his former team.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 41, Texans 14.

Colts (+4) at 49ers

MDS’s take: Both of these teams are trying to stay competitive in a crowded playoff field, and I think the 49ers are going to deliver a big blow to the Colts’ chances.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 28, Colts 21.

Florio’s take: Maybe, just maybe, the 49ers aren’t as good as we’ve been led to believe they are.

Florio’s pick: Colt 24, 49ers 20.

Saints (-5) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: With Geno Smith in for Russell Wilson, I just can’t see the Seahawks staying competitive. The Saints win and deliver Seattle’s playoffs hopes another blow.

MDS’s pick: Saints 24, Seahawks 21.

Florio’s take: The Seahawks are good enough to compete but not good enough to beat a competitive team. And their window will be a little closer to being closed after the Saints get finished with them.

Florio’s pick: Saints 28, Seahawks 20.