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Uncertainty on Kyler Murray’s starting status is common for first overall QBs

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Big Cat and Mike Florio dive into some PFT props, including how many rookie QBs will start in Week 1 and whether Joe Flacco will have more starts this year than Eli Manning.

The Cardinals seem uncertain about whether rookie quarterback Kyler Murray will start Week One, with General Manager Steve Keim saying he will, and coach Kliff Kingsbury not sounding so sure.

That uncertainty is not such a surprise, as first overall quarterbacks starting Week One has been a 50-50 proposition. Of the last 10 quarterbacks picked first overall, five started Week One and five did not.

Here are the last 10 quarterbacks to go first overall, and when they started their first games:

2018: Baker Mayfield didn’t start until the fourth game of the season, after an injury to Tyrod Taylor.

2016: Jared Goff didn’t start until Week 11, after Case Keenum struggled.

2015: Jameis Winston started all 16 games as a rookie.

2012: Andrew Luck started all 16 games as a rookie.

2011: Cam Newton started all 16 games as a rookie.

2010: Sam Bradford started all 16 games as a rookie.

2009: Matthew Stafford started Week One and remained the starter when healthy.

2007: JaMarcus Russell didn’t start until the final game of the season.

2005: Alex Smith didn’t start until Week Five, after Tim Rattay was benched.

2004: Eli Manning didn’t start until the 10th game of the season, after Kurt Warner was benched.

Murray seems more likely than not to start, largely because the Cardinals, unlike some of those teams listed above, don’t have any experienced veteran quarterbacks to start in his place: Their only other quarterbacks are Brett Hundley (whose only starting experience is in place of an injured Aaron Rodgers) and Chad Kanoff (whom you’ve never heard of, and neither have I). First overall picks starting is usually a 50-50 bet, but in this case the better bet is that Murray will be out there when the Cardinals open their season against the Lions on September 8.