Can Max Domi continue current offensive pace?
At his end of season press conference last April, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin talked about needing to fix his team’s attitude. Eyebrows were raised, and many questioned what he meant by that. He ended up dealing Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty to Western Conference teams. In return for Galchenyuk, he managed to land Max Domi from the Arizona Coyotes. At the time, the trade was met with skepticism. Galchenyuk was coming off a down year, but Domi had only scored nine times in 82 games during the 2017-18 season. Well, the trade couldn’t have worked out any better after the first month of play.
Domi, 23, has been incredible for the Canadiens. Not only has he brought a fresh attitude to this group, he’s also been the most productive player on the team by a mile. The fourth-year NHLer has already matched his goal total from last season, as he’s found the back of the net nine times in just 17 games with the Canadiens. Also, he leads the team in points with 21.
What makes this even more impressive, is that he’s done it while playing center for a team that was lacking depth at that position in a bad way. Despite playing with an inconsistent Jonathan Drouin on his left side, Domi has managed to produce on a nightly basis. Of the 17 games he’s played this season, Domi has failed to collect a point in just three contests.
As of right now, only eight players have collected more points than Domi. The biggest question is whether or not he can keep it up. Let’s take a look at the advanced numbers.
The first stat we’ll look at, is shooting percentage. Right now, the average shooting percentage across the NHL is 9.8 percent. Domi’s shooting percentage is currently 25 percent. Yowza! Over the course of his career, he’s never had a shooting percentage higher than 11.5 percent, and that came during his rookie season. Combine the shooting percentage with the fact that he’s shooting the puck more than ever, as he’s averaging 2.12 shots per game. His previous career-high was 1.93. Even if he keeps shooting more than he has in previous years, it’s hard to envision him finishing with 43 goals (that’s what he’s on pace for right now).
His PDO (shooting percentage + his goalie’s save percentage when he’s on the ice) also indicates that his offensive totals could come down in the near future. Every player’s PDO should finish around the 100-mark. Domi’s PDO is currently at 104.5, which, again, means there’s likely some regression coming. So yeah, a 101-point season isn’t likely.
Even if his numbers drop at some point, it doesn’t mean that Domi will totally fall off the grid. Coming into this season, Canadiens fans would have taken a 55-60 point season from their new forward. If he hits those numbers, the trade ends up being a home run for Bergevin after one year.