What if... The Sabres didn’t match Edmonton’s offer sheet for Thomas Vanek
Suspend your disbelief and throw your Back To The Future ways of dealing with “What if?” stories right now for a bit. James’ post yesterday about some of the most infamous offer sheets the NHL has ever seen got me thinking about one of the more recent, and infamous, ones dealt out. Edmonton’s offer sheet for Buffalo Sabres forward Thomas Vanek got me thinking about how things would’ve changed drastically for both teams had the Sabres opted against retaining Vanek. Obviously this would’ve meant that Dustin Penner would’ve stayed an Anaheim Duck and Brian Burke wouldn’t have Kevin Lowe’s face on his dart board, but that’s beside the point right now.
During the summer of 2007, the Sabres lost both Daniel Briere and Chris Drury to free agency. Thomas Vanek was in his restricted free agency year after scoring 43 goals and netting 84 points. The Sabres wanted to take their time in negotiating with him but Edmonton general manager Kevin Lowe wanted to hear none of that and signed Vanek to a seven year, $50 million offer sheet. According to the NHL CBA (PDF download), compensation for a team allowing a player to be signed away from them via offer sheet at that amount of money would be four first-round picks. While the Sabres matched the offer sheet, what would their future have looked like letting Edmonton take him away? Sabres fans might want to look away.
The Sabres drafted their own great prospect in Calder Trophy-winning defenseman Tyler Myers. Had things held tight, they could’ve had back-to-back picks in that draft. Edmonton picked 12th that year and the Sabres had the 13th selection. While the Sabres ended up picking 12th through a series of deals, part of those trades was Buffalo giving up their 13th overall pick to the Kings to move up to 12th. Clearly Myers was their guy that year, but had they let Vanek go to Edmonton, Buffalo would’ve had two picks in a row. Los Angeles selected defenseman Colten Teubert at 13 but any number of potential future stars including Zach Boychuk, Joe Colborne, Jordan Eberle, John Carlson or Michael Del Zotto could’ve been had. For what it’s worth, the Sabres also picked 26th in that first round as well, selecting Tyler Ennis. The 2008 draft had one of the deeper first rounds in recent history.
The Sabres picked 13th in this draft and snagged forward Zack Kassian, a guy who has found things to be a bit difficult in trying to build himself into a NHL pro, especially off the ice. Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers had the 10th overall selection and grabbed Swedish phenom Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson who is slated to join the Oilers this season after coming over from Europe. While it remains to be seen what, if anything, will come of either Kassian or Paajarvi-Svensson at this point with Kassian’s off-ice issues coming into play and Paajarvi-Svensson being hailed as part of the future in Edmonton, you have to feel a bit leery about how Buffalo’s fortune looks here.
Here’s where Buffalo’s decision really comes to roost. Sure, the Sabres made a nice, safe pick with their own selection in defenseman Mark Pysyk, but the Oilers had the number one overall choice and used it on high-scoring wing/center Taylor Hall. The dynamic that could’ve occurred had the Taylor vs. Tyler debate been there for the Sabres is obvious as the Sabres need for a true number one center would’ve come a bit more into play making the debate between Hall and Seguin that much more interesting.
While the 2011 Draft awaits us next year, it doesn’t figure that Edmonton will be all that good as they still have gigantic questions in goal and icing a line with three rookies will have its ups and downs on the year. This debate arises after Vanek had a pretty quiet and comparably miserable year in 2009-2010. After all, having your lowest goal output since your rookie season will make fans worry, especially the very temperamental ones in Buffalo. Certainly Vanek can, and very well may, rebound to his 30+ goal form but fans will certainly be wondering if letting him go to Edmonton may have been the right call to help the team salary-wise and player-wise.