Holiday Bowl

Oregon football drops out of CFP top 10: So, Rose Bowl?

Oregon football drops out of CFP top 10: So, Rose Bowl?

Oregon is no longer a contender for the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have fallen from No. 6 to No. 14 in the CFP rankings after being upset by Arizona State. Barring an insane amount of surprises over the final two weekends of college football, the Ducks are out of the final four.

So, Rose Bowl?     

The Pac-12 North Division champion Ducks still have a chance at playing in the Rose Bowl by winning the Pac-12 title game on December 6th in Santa Clara, California. Oregon will face either Utah or USC in the Pac-12 Championship. If Utah loses to Colorado, USC will be the Pac-12 South champions. If the Utes beat the Buffaloes, Utah takes the crown.

Another route to roses… If the Ducks lose the Pac-12 title game to Utah and the Utes get into the playoff, Oregon could still go to the Rose Bowl, as the conference’s next best team.

Although, Oregon’s drop out of the top-10 severely hurts Utah’s resume as contenders.

The Rose Bowl is played vs. a Big Ten opponent in Pasadena, California at 2 p.m. (PT) on January 1, 2020. Possible Big Ten opponents: Minnesota, Wisconsin or Ohio State.

What is the next best-case scenarios for rest the 2019 season?

If Oregon beats Oregon State, loses the Pac-12 Title game which sends Utah to the Rose Bowl, the Ducks are looking at two options: an at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl or the Pac-12’s No. 2 bowl tie-in, the Alamo Bowl.

The Cotton Bowl is played vs. an at-large bid in Arlington, Texas at 10 a.m. (PT) on December 28, 2019. Possible Cotton Bowl opponents: Alabama, Boise State, Florida.

The Alamo Bowl is played vs. the Big 12’s No. 2 team in San Antonio, Texas at 4:30 p.m. (PT) on December 31, 2019. Likely Big 12 opponent: Baylor.

Worst-case scenario?

If Oregon loses to Oregon State and in the Pac-12 Title game, the Holiday Bowl would be the Ducks’ likely destination.

The Holiday Bowl is vs. Big Ten opponent in San Diego, California at 5 p.m. (PT) on December 27, 2019.  

Oregon is one win away from its first 10-win season since 2014 with a chance to be crowed Pac-12 Champions. Now that the national title is out of the picture, senior quarterback Justin Herbert said, “It means everything,” to learn from the ASU loss and refocus on finishing the season strong.

How and why Oregon could be headed to the Holiday Bowl

How and why Oregon could be headed to the Holiday Bowl

The Oregon Ducks finished Pac-12 Conference play with a win over Oregon State and their list of potential bowl games has narrowed and improved. 

It might be a little early to book your travel (hello, holiday airline deals!) but it is very possible Oregon will play in the Holiday Bowl on New Years Eve. Bowl selection can get convoluted, so here is a quick breakdown.

No Roses for Ducks: Oregon’s chances to play in the Rose Bowl have wilted away because the conference champion will play in Pasadena. But the other six bowls with Pac-12 ties are still in play.

Ducks in Pac-12 Standings: Oregon (8-4, 5-4) is fourth in the North Division behind Washington State, Washington and Stanford; and tied at fifth in the conference. The Ducks could move up if Cal beats Stanford, creating a three-way tie in which Oregon wins the head-to-head.

Remaining deciding factors:

  • If Washington State gets selected as an at large bid to a New Year’s Six game, probably the Fiesta bowl. If that happens, the Ducks would have one less team ahead of them.
  • How other bowls select Pac-12 teams

How does that selection work? In the Pac-12 conference, a bowl is allowed to select any team in standings order within one loss of the next ranking. Oregon has four losses, along with Arizona and Cal (Stanford game pending).

When will we know? December 2 is when Bowl games, starting with the College Football Playoff and New Year's Six, will be announced.

Which bowl games could Oregon go to? Here are the games, in order:

Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12, Dec. 28, 2018, San Antonio, Texas

  • Technically possible for Oregon but the loser of the Pac-12 title game is probably headed to San Antonio.

Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten; Dec. 31, 2018, San Diego, Calif.

  • Possible, if Washington State receives an at-large bid to a New Year's Six game, Pac-12 title game winner goes to Rose Bowl, and loser to Alamo Bowl.
  • Holiday Bowl picks between Stanford, Oregon, Cal, ASU.
  • Could pick Ducks because of a fan base that travels well.
  • Oregon hasn’t been to Holiday Bowl since 2008.

Redbox Bowl vs. Big Ten; Dec. 31, 2018, Santa Clara, Calif.

  • Possible, if Washington State receives an at-large bid to a New Year's Six game, Pac-12 title game winner goes to Rose Bowl, and loser to Alamo Bowl.
  • Also, possible if Washington State DOES NOT go to New Year’s Six game and Cougars go to the Alamo Bowl, Pac-12 winner to Rose Bowl and Pac-12 loser to Holiday Bowl.
  • Redbox Bowl picks between Stanford, Oregon, Cal, ASU.
  • Could lean towards Stanford due to proximity.

Sun Bowl vs. ACC; Dec. 31, 2018, El Paso, Tex.

  • Possible. If Washington State DOES NOT go to New Year’s Six game and Cougars go to the Alamo Bowl, Pac-12 winner to Rose Bowl and Pac-12 loser to Holiday Bowl, and Redbox Bowl does not select Oregon.

Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West, Dec. 15, 2018, Las Vegas, Nev.

  • Possible. If Washington State DOES NOT go to New Year’s Six game and Cougars go to the Alamo Bowl, Pac-12 winner to Rose Bowl and Pac-12 loser to Holiday Bowl, and Redbox Bowl or Sun Bowl do not select Oregon.

Cheez-It Bowl vs. Big 12 #6, Dec. 26, 2018, Phoenix, Ariz.

  • Possible. If Washington State DOES NOT go to New Year’s Six game and Cougars go to the Alamo Bowl, Pac-12 winner to Rose Bowl and Pac-12 loser to Holiday Bowl, and Redbox Bowl, Sun Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl do not select Oregon.

What is being projected for Oregon around the nation?

SB Nation predicts Holiday Bowl vs. Northwestern

Sports Illustrated predicts Holiday Bowl vs. Iowa

Bleacher Report predicts Holiday Bowl vs. Wisconsin

ESPN predicts Redbox Bowl vs. Minnesota

 

Stay tuned for possible opponents in a later post.

Oregon will play in the Alamo or Holiday Bowl: True or false?

Oregon will play in the Alamo or Holiday Bowl: True or false?

Aaron Fentress and I discuss Oregon's potential bowl game destinations in this week's 'Good or No Good'. 

The statement: Oregon will play in either the Alamo bowl or the Holiday Bowl (the best bowl games the Ducks are eligible for, currently).

We both agree that statement is NO GOOD!

My prediction is the Ducks will win two of their final three games (lose at Utah) and finish fourth in the Pac-12 conference, sending them to the Redbox Bowl on December 31, 2018 in Santa Clara, Calif.