The Trail Blazers gave homecourt back to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night, dropping Game 3 120-115 at Moda Center.
With the Blazers having lost a nail-biter in Game 3 to the Nuggets and being down 2-1, all eyes turn to Game 4 and stopping Denver from taking a commanding 3-1 lead.
Winning Game 3 had major series implications, too.
Historically, the winner of Game 3 goes on to win the series 73.3% of the time.
Since 2010, only seven away teams have won the series opener, lost the second game, and won the series.
Losing such a close game may be the reason why SportsRadar is giving the Blazers a 58% chance of winning Game 4.
The Trail Blazers enter Game 4 as four-point favorites, odds provided by PointsBet.
Trail Blazers -171
With only one day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4, the team posted a 61.9% winning percentage with a day off, and the Nuggets won 69.4% of their games with the same time off.
As for winning the series, the odds are against Portland. They enter Game 4 with a 35.9% chance of overcoming the 2-1 deficit, but with a win and tying it up 2-2- heading back to Denver, their chances increase to 47.4%.
Going down 3-1 will give them a 10.3% chance of becoming the 10th team since 1984 to overcome such a deficit.
As for the Nuggets, they have the Blazers exactly where they want them. The odds are in their favor.
Since 1984, teams with home-court advantage in a best-of-seven are 29-5 when leading 2-1 after losing the series opener and winning the next two games. Such teams have won the last seven series.
The last team to overcome such a deficit, based on said criteria, were the 2017 Jazz against the Clippers.
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