Don't be surprised if Eagles vs. Saints is close

Don't be surprised if Eagles vs. Saints is close

The Eagles are nine-point underdogs this Sunday in New Orleans. The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss on national television. The Saints look unstoppable seemingly rolling out of bed and putting up at least 30 points. Why does all of that point to the Eagles staying within the number and maybe even winning outright?

Every football fan can be prone to being a prisoner to the moment. This gets especially magnified when you get dominated on Sunday or Monday Night Football. That type of loss in front of a national audience can skew one's opinion on the team too far one way or the other. This season, there have been 10 occasions when a team has gotten embarrassed on Sunday or Monday night (embarrassed defined as losing by at least two scores). Yes, the Eagles only lost by one score, but I think the whole region can agree that it was an embarrassment this past Sunday night. Here's how the previous ten teams fared:

Week 1:
Jets 48, Lions 17. Next game: Lions 27, 49ers 30 (Lions cover +6, lose outright)
Rams 33, Raiders 13. Next game: Raiders 19, Broncos 20 (Raiders cover +5.5, lose outright)

Week 3:
Patriots 10, Lions 26. Next game: Dolphins 7, Patriots 38 (Patriots cover -6.5)

Week 4:
Ravens 26, Steelers 14. Next game: Falcons 17, Steelers 41 (Steelers cover -3.5)

Week 5: 
Redskins 19, Saints 43. Next game: Panthers 17, Redskins 23 (Redskins cover +1, win outright)

Week 7:
Bengals 10, Chiefs 45. Next game: Buccaneers 34, Bengals 37 (Bengals fail to cover -3.5 despite leading 34-16 at the start of the 4th quarter)

Week 8:
Saints 30, Vikings 20. Next game: Lions 9, Vikings 24 (Vikings cover -5)
Patriots 25, Bills 6. Next game: Bears 41, Bills 9 (Bills fail to cover +10)

Week 9:
Packers 17, Patriots 31. Next game: Dolphins 12, Packers 31 (Packers cover -12)
Titans 28, Cowboys 14. Next game: Cowboys 27, Eagles 20 (Cowboys cover +7.5, win outright)

Week 10:
Cowboys 27, Eagles 20. Next game: ???

Teams that got blown out on Sunday or Monday night are 8-2 against the spread their next game (including two outright wins by underdogs). Aside from a blown cover from the Bengals, the only team that failed to cover were the Nathan Peterman-led Buffalo Bills.

Teams are never as bad as their worst game (Eagles losing to the Cowboys) or as great as their best game (Saints winning 51-14 in Cincinnati). The elephant in the room of course is New Orleans has a different kind of home field advantage. However, it is so uncommon for an elite quarterback like Carson Wentz to get that many points. Russell Wilson covered +10 and Aaron Rodgers covered +7.5 at the Rams. 

Don't be surprised if the Eagles keep it close on Sunday.

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More on the Eagles

Eagle Eye Podcast: How important will revenge factor be?

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Eagle Eye Podcast: How important will revenge factor be?

On this edition of Eagle Eye, Derrick Gunn and Barrett Brooks discuss what the Eagles need to do to get to last year's level. The old norm needs to become the new norm.

A banged up Eagles team will face the Vikings on Sunday. How important is the revenge factor in games like this?

Also, the guys take a look at the rest of the NFC East. And will Patrick Mahomes continue to light it up?

2:00 -  Eagles and Vikings are each facing potentially a season-defining game on Sunday.
7:00 - Eagles need to play with the intensity they played with last year.
10:00 - More injuries for the Eagles.
14:00 - Why has the offense been so inconsistent?
17:00 - How much does a long week help the Vikings?
21:30 - Do we make too much out of the revenge factor?
24:00 - Previewing other NFC East games.

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Mobile sports betting in New Jersey not worth it yet

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Mobile sports betting in New Jersey not worth it yet

Mobile sports betting is now available in the state of New Jersey.

So is it worth your time to make the trek across the bridge for mobile betting?

Most experts will tell you no. DraftKings is taking advantage of being the only mobile show in town.

Crash course on how sports betting works

It’s known amongst professional bettors that you have to win a minimum of 52.34 percent of your bets in order to make a profit. This is because sportsbooks in Vegas will typically take 10 percent in an effort to guarantee profit if a game has an even money bet on each team. Heavy hitters, or “sharps,” will view a 55 percent hit rate as a huge success and it’s extremely rare that the average bettor reaches that number over the long-term — no matter how many of your friends tell you they’re hitting 65 percent.

How DraftKings mobile betting works compared to Vegas

DraftKings is the most recent company to enter the world of mobile sports betting. However, you won’t be getting the best value betting on their mobile app.

For a traditional NFL game, there is a point spread. Let’s take the Eagles’ regular season opener. The defending World Champs are four-point favorites over the Falcons with the odds being -110 to bet either side. What this means is you need to bet $110 to win $100 and the house keeps $10. That $10 of interest is known as “juice” or “vig.”

The vig alters however if you bet the outright winner (the moneyline). The Eagles are currently -185 and the Falcons are +160. This is because the Eagles are a sizable favorite. You would have to bet $185 to win $100 betting the Eagles on the moneyline. You’ll notice there is a “25 cent” difference between the two moneylines. This is referred to as a “dime line.” The lower the “dime line” is, the more advantageous it is to the bettor. 

In baseball, this also goes for betting the run line, which is like a football betting line. Run lines will be -1.5 and +1.5 runs. If you bet on the team at -1.5, that team has to win by two runs. If you bet on the team at +1.5 runs, they need to either lose by one run or win the game outright.

MLB is where we see lack-of-value on DraftKings’ mobile betting. On the image below, you can see (as of this morning) the dime line for the run line is 40 cents in the Astros/Giants game. Most all of the dime lines for that game is 20 cents in Vegas sportsbooks. The DraftKings’ moneyline dime line for tonight’s Phillies/Diamondbacks game is 30 cents. Vegas ranges from 10 cents to 20 cents.

Is it worth it?

The playing field will level as more sportsbooks become mobile but you get far better value at a live sportsbook for the time being. The question for the consumer is how much are they willing to pay for the convenience of mobile sports betting? If it is value the consumer is looking for, then it’s best to make the trip to Atlantic City or Delaware to have some action on a game.

WARNING PENNSYLVANIA RESIDENTS: if you even attempt to place a bet while in your home state, you’ll get a pretty mean and scary message: