Eagles' potential 1st-round pick in jeopardy as Wentz has surgery

Carson Wentz is having foot surgery and the Eagles are now in serious jeopardy of not getting back a first-round pick from the trade that sent their former franchise quarterback to Indianapolis.

Early word was that Wentz was going to attempt to avoid having surgery but that plan was short-lived. Colts head coach Frank Reich announced on Monday morning that Wentz will have surgery that will keep him out for 5-12 weeks.

Apparently, this injury dates back to one he had in high school.

Breaking: Frank Reich says Carson Wentz had an old foot injury dating back to perhaps high school according to doctors. Over time, the broken bone came loose and caused pain. The decision has been made to undergo surgery and remove it. 5-12 weeks.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) August 2, 2021

Wentz’s injury status matters to the Eagles because the second-round pick they got as a part of the return for Wentz can turn into a first-round pick if one of two things happen:

1. Wentz plays at least 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps

2. Wentz plays at least 70% of the Colts’ offensive snaps and the Colts make the playoffs

The timeframe given by Reich on Monday morning is obviously pretty wide. If Wentz misses just five weeks, he could potentially be back for the season opener or shortly after. But if he misses 12 weeks, he could miss nearly the first two months of the season.

So this storyline isn’t going away anytime soon.

The Colts averaged just under 68 offensive snaps per game in 2020, so if we project how many snaps they’ll play in 2021 based on a 17-game schedule, it comes out to roughly 1,156 total snaps.

Here’s where Wentz would be percentage-wise based on this average:

Misses one game: 94.1%

Misses two games: 88.2%

Misses three games: 82.4%

Misses four games: 76.8%

Misses five games: 70.6%

Misses six games: 64.7%

During his career, Wentz has dealt with his fair share of injuries. In his five seasons with the Eagles, we saw his playing time fluctuate. And both teams were obviously aware of his injury history at the time of the trade; that’s why there are these conditions on the cornerstone pick of the deal.

As a reminder, here’s how much Wentz has played percentage-wise during his five years in the NFL.

2016: 100%

2017: 78%

2018: 66%

2019: 99%

2020: 72%

The Eagles will be monitoring this situation the rest of the summer and as the 2021 regular season begins. One way to look at this is it reinforces that trading Wentz was the right move; he can’t stay healthy. On the other, the Eagles would obviously be much better off with a first-round pick in 2022.

Not only would they have a chance to use that potential first-round pick on a player next spring, but that first-rounder would be a much more valuable trade chip.

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