Let’s not sugarcoat it. On paper the Eagles (3-7-1 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) and Packers (8-3, 7-4) look like a mismatch.
Green Bay’s 31.7 points per game is tops in the league. Their 392.9 yards per game ranks 4th in the NFL. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads the league with 33 touchdown passes. Certainly a tall task for and Eagles defense that is 9th in the NFL.
Tally all that up and it comes to no surprise the Eagles are 9-point underdogs at Lambeau Field according to NBC Sports betting partner PointsBet. The Eagles could surely use a little of that magic from a season ago when they went on the road and knocked off the Packers 34-27 as 3.5-point underdogs.
History shows the Eagles have had success being in this spot. The Birds are 9-4 all-time ATS at Green Bay, including 5-2 ATS in their last 7 at the frozen tundra.
Per Rotoworld, Philadelphia is 22-9 all-time on the road when underdogs of at least 9-points. As for Green Bay, the Pack have not covered 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 9 or more points, including their last 3. Once this year already the Packers didn’t cover a big number at home when only won 24-20 to Jacksonville as 13.5-point favorites.
Since the Eagles went into Green Bay and came out victorious last year, the Packers have won 9 of 10 straight up at home.
A big reason for that success starts with Rodgers who is averaging just under 282 yards in the air this season. His over/under on passing yards for this week’s game is 289.5. Last year against the Eagles Rodgers threw for 422 yards.
Another thing to keep an eye is the ground game for the Eagles. Running back Jordan Howard has been elevated off the practice squad. Last year versus Green Bay all he did was score 3 total touchdowns while accumulating 87 rushing yards. Miles Sanders played well too, accumulating 72 yards of his own. His over/under on is at 64.5 rushing yards which is below his 75 yard average on the season.
The Eagles have their work cut out for them against the Packers but it’s not crazy to think they may just be able to hang around considering Green Bay is just 3-2 ATS at home this season.
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