The Ravens' contract extension saga with Lamar Jackson has been going on forever. Will he ever sign with the team? Will he get more or less than the big money deal he reportedly turned down?
And most importantly for Eagles fans... will Jalen Hurts cost the same?
Hurts has catapulted himself into big money extension talk with his tremendous start to the 2022 season. He was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month, the Eagles are 3-0, and Hurts has been arguably the most valuable player in the NFL through three weeks.
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Now of course it's just three weeks, and you don't pay a guy $290 million off of three great weeks. We need to see Hurts play at this level for an entire season and preferably throughout the postseason before Howie Roseman inks QB1 to a QB1-type deal.
But that seems far more likely than it did three weeks ago, so while we enjoy this ride we can also look a little bit into the future and figure out how much the Eagles need to budget to keep Hurts around long-term.
Roseman can't sign Hurts to a mid-season extension the way he did with Jordan Mailata, Dallas Goedert, and Avonte Maddox last year because of the CBA. The extension (assuming things keep going this way) will come this offseason, which could leave room for Jackson to sign his long-awaited deal... and perhaps fellow 2020 NFL Draft class mates Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa as well.
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What could Hurts wind up costing the Eagles? ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter explained on 97.5 The Fanatic this week that if Hurts' play leads the Eagles deep into the postseason, the young QB could actually be pricier than Jackson:
"Lamar Jackson hasn't produced in the playoffs. What if Jalen Hurts takes this Eagles team on an extended playoff run, goes deep in the playoffs in ways that everybody would love to see? What if that happens? What if Lamar Jackson doesn't do that? I mean, you might be able to make the argument that he's worth more than Lamar Jackson if they win the Super Bowl. Yes, it's based off performance. But it's going to be a team-driven thing, too."
Obviously "if they win the Super Bowl" is quite a qualifier, but Schefter certainly has a good handle on players' markets and front offices' mindsets.
Let's project Hurts' numbers right now out over a 17-game season:
- 5,190 pass yards
- 946 rush yards
- 67.3% completion
- 9.3 Y/A
- 39 total TD
- 6 INT
Yep, that's a quarterback you're gonna have to pay a lot of money to keep around. That's just a fact. And the Eagles want a franchise QB, so they'll do it - even if it means exceeding the 7-year, $290 million mark Jackson reportedly turned down this past offseason.
Let's look at a trio of big money extensions from the past couple of years that should also be informative:
- Kyler Murray (2022): 24 years old | 5 years, $230 million, $46 million AAV
- Josh Allen (2021): 25 years old | 6 years, $258 million, $43 million AAV
- Dak Prescott (2021): 27 years old | 4 years, $160 million, $40 million AAV
Murray is an example of a player with a play style similar to Hurts, Allen is also a player with a play style similar to Hurts and who also took a big leap after adding better supporting talent, and Prescott is a Cowboy and we're all invested in the Cowboys. Deals like Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are also probably informative, but those feel like outlier players rather than templates for the Eagles.
So we're looking at probably upwards of $40-$45 million per year, and since Hurts is 24 years old the Eagles won't be worried about the length of the deal - which could help them keep the cost down while guaranteeing him more security.
I think something like Allen's contract would be perfect for both sides, but if Schefter thinks a huge Hurts year could put him above Jackson... look out.