The Eagles' over-under trend that's impossible to explain

If there’s one thing every Eagles fan can agree on, it’s that this franchise never seems to do what everybody expects them to do.

When they’re supposed to be good, they’re bad. When they’re supposed to be bad, they’re good.

Always full of surprises.

And it’s been that way for a while.

Let’s take a look at just how unpredictable they’ve been.

The Vegas oddsmakers have set the Eagles’ over-under win total for this year at 9½, but those Vegas projections have been a nightmare for the Eagles lately.

The last six times their over-under win total was set at 9½ or higher, the Eagles failed to reach that projected total. And three of those six seasons they actually finished with a losing record.

Going all the way back to 2005, the Eagles have hit the over only once in eight times it’s been set at 9½ wins or higher. That was 2009, when the Vegas win projection was 9½ wins, and they went 11-5.

Here’s a look at every year since 2005 the Eagles have been projected to win 9½ or more games, along with their actual win total:

Conversely, the last six times the Eagles won 10 games, they were projected to win fewer than 10 games. Here’s a look at those seasons:

Incredibly, to find the last time the Eagles were projected to win at least 10 and actually did win at least 10 games, you have to go back to 2004, when the Vegas number was 10½ and the Eagles won 13 games and went to the Super Bowl. 

That was 18 years ago.

And six of the last seven times the Eagles were projected to win fewer than nine games, they went on to reach the playoffs. The one exception is 2016, Doug Pederson’s first year as head coach. The over-under was 6½, and that team went 7-9. 

The last time before that the Eagles were projected to have a losing record that they did have a losing record was 1999, which was Andy Reid’s first year. 

Before 2005, the Vegas over-under projections wound up pretty accurate. 

From 1989 — the first year Pro Football Reference lists win Vegas preseason over-unders — through 2004, the Eagles were projected to win 10 or more games six times and they won at least 10 games all six of those seasons (1989, 1991, 1992, 2002, 2003, 2004).

Also during that 16-year span from 1989 through 2004, they were projected to have a losing record three times and they had a losing record twice (1998 and 1999 but not 2000). 

Last year’s differential from an over-under of 6½ wins to 9½ regular-season wins was the largest one-year increase on record.

The point of all this?

The Eagles have been insanely unpredictable for the last 17 years. But if you’re an Eagles fan, you already knew that.

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