Here it is: the biggest Eagles game in five years. A home game for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Standing in the way are the 2-seed in the NFC, the 49ers and their top-ranked defense.
All odds courtesy PointsBet
Eagles (14-3) vs. 49ers (13-4), Sunday 3:00pm
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Point Spread (ML) – Eagles -2.5 (-150); 49ers +2.5 (+130)
Point Total – 46.5 points
Analysis: These two teams are very even on both sides of the ball, but I think the Eagles have a real edge at quarterback. Jalen Hurts has played at an MVP level all season long. A 14-1 record alone is astounding for such a young player, but 35 combined touchdowns and just eight total turnovers shows that he is the engine of this offense. Purdy has been a phenomenon, but I feel like the Eagles’ pass rush will derail his hype train. I don’t think a ton of points will be scored, but the Birds survive and advance.
Picks: Eagles ML, UNDER 46.5
NFL
Passing yards – Jalen Hurts 250.5; Brock Purdy 215.5
Analysis: The 49ers have the top defense in the NFL, but rank just 20th in the league in passing D. Thinking back to another team Jalen Hurts faced with a top running defense and a suspect passing defense, back in Week 13 Hurts torched Tennessee for 380 yards and three scores. This offense will figure out what you don’t do well and exploit the hell out of it. This game will be won or lost on the arm of Jalen Hurts.
Purdy doesn’t have a huge body of work, but when he gets hit, his numbers really suffer. In four games where he’s been sacked at least twice, he’s averaged just 209 passing yards. He’s more than likely going to be sacked more than twice Sunday.
Picks: Hurts OVER 250.5, Purdy UNDER 215.5
Rushing yards – Hurts 45.5, Miles Sanders 50.5; Christian McCaffrey 50.5, Deebo Samuel 20.5
Analysis: The totals look modest, but it’s tough to see Miles Sanders getting over 50 yards against this 49ers defense, especially with the Eagles’ tendency to quit on the run quickly if they don’t get early results. McCaffrey has failed to hit 50 in 3-of-5, but I think if this game remains close, the Niners will give him the ball enough to get there.
Picks: Sanders UNDER 50.5; McCaffrey OVER 50.5
Receiving yards:
A.J. Brown 70.5 DeVonta Smith 65.5
Deebo Samuel 50.5 Brandon Aiyuk 45.5
Dallas Goedert 45.5 George Kittle 45.5
Christian McCaffrey 30.5 Jauan Jennings 20.5
Analysis: Brown caught just 3/22 last week against the Giants, but was over 70 is 6-of-6 before that. Look for him to shine on a big stage. Smith has had at least 61 in his last seven. Kittle is a game-breaker, but the Eagles have done a very good job against tight ends this season. Only four TEs have topped 40 yards receiving this season. Kittle’s a stay away for me. Jennings has topped 20 yards in 5-of-6.
Picks: Brown OVER 70.5, Smith OVER 65.5; McCaffrey OVER 30.5, Jennings OVER 20.5
Anytime TD:
Christian McCaffrey -125 Jalen Hurts +125
Miles Sanders +150 A.J. Brown +155
Deebo Samuel +160 DeVonta Smith +175
Dallas Goedert +190 George Kittle +185
Brandon Aiyuk +270
Analysis: McCaffrey has 12 TD in 13 games since being traded to the Niners, that seems too good to pass up. Hurts is always a threat in the red zone. Not a lot of value here, but the principal players will get theirs Sunday.
Picks: Hurts, Brown; McCaffrey, Kittle