Here’s hoping you tailed some of the picks from last week’s column. We hit on 8-of-9 picks, the only miss being DeVonta Smith anytime TD. We’ll try to stay hot with this week’s picks as the Eagles and Vikings play on the national stage.
(All odds courtesy PointsBet)
Eagles vs Vikings
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Spread/Money Line: Eagles -2.5/-145 Vikings +2.5/+125
Total Over/Under: 50.5 points
Analysis: As good as the Vikings looked in Week 1 against the Packers (a 23-7 win), there’s one stat I can’t overlook: Kirk Cousins is 2-9 in his career on Monday nights. That’s a mountain of ineptitude for a player who actually has some very good career stats otherwise. You just can’t trust him in a big game. I think the Eagles defense will look better than it did last week in Detroit, and the offense will do just enough to get a win.
Picks: Eagles ML, Under 50.5
NFL
Passing yards (O/U) – Jalen Hurts 235.5; Kirk Cousins 275.5
Analysis: I feel like the Cousins number is just too high, even with Justin Jefferson at his disposal. Outside his throws to Jefferson, he averaged less than 4.5 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles defense will key on Jefferson, and give Cousins what he wants underneath.
Pick: Cousins UNDER 275.5
Passing TD (O/U) – Hurts 1.5; Cousins 1.5
Analysis: We saw what the Eagles chose to do in goal-to-go situations last year, and it continued last week. They like to keep the ball on the ground deep in the red zone. Hurts has thrown multiple TD passes in just seven of 20 career starts. Cousins has thrown 2+ TD passes in 15 of his last 20 starts. That trend is too good to pass up.
Pick: Cousins OVER 1.5
Rushing yards (O/U) – Hurts 50.5, Miles Sanders 55.5, Dalvin Cook 70.5
Analysis: The Eagles run defense didn’t look great in Detroit. D’andre Swift busted a 50-yard run on the second play of the game. I feel like Cook will easily reach his number. Hurts is still developing as a QB, but there are enough times where he escapes the pocket that he will do damage with his legs if he believes things aren’t there downfield.
Picks: Hurts OVER 50.5, Cook OVER 70.5
Receiving yards (O/U)
Justin Jefferson 95.5 A.J. Brown 75.5
Adam Thielen 50.5 Dallas Goedert 45.5
DeVonta Smith 40.5 K.J. Osborn 30.5
Quez Watkins 20.5 Dalvin Cook 15.5
Miles Sanders 10.5 Kenny Gainwell 10.5
Analysis: Jefferson is a stud, but that number is just too high, especially if the Eagles pay close attention to him throughout the night. Thielen will take advantage of all the attention paid to Jefferson, as well as K.J. Osborn.
As for the Eagles, I can just about guarantee that DeVonta Smith will get multiple targets early, after last week’s zero-catch game. 40 yards seems like easy money for him, as does 45 for Dallas Goedert.
Picks: Thielen OVER, Smith OVER, Goedert OVER
Anytime TD scorer:
Justin Jefferson -125 Dalvin Cook -110
A.J. Brown +105 Jalen Hurts +145
Miles Sanders +150 Adam Thielen +175
Dallas Goedert +210 DeVonta Smith +230
Kenny Gainwell +260 Irv Smith +280
Alexander Mattison +300 K.J. Osborn +310
Boston Scott +500 Jalen Reagor +600
Analysis: Jalen Reagor revenge game! I would be shocked if he scores in this game, considering he didn’t play an offensive snap last week and, well, he’s Jalen Reagor. Boston Scott as a TD vulture provides some real value here.