The NFL is different these days. There are no five-year plans. No long-range programs.
You win. Or you're gone.
When the Eagles hired Dick Vermeil in 1976 to fix a franchise that hadn't had a winning season in a decade, he had the time and the space and the patience of an owner to slowly rebuild from the ground up, and when the Eagles went 4-10 his first year and 5-9 his second year, it wasn't alarming. It didn't mean he was the worst coach in the world.
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And gradually things got better. By Year 5, they played in the Super Bowl.
These days, you have to win now, and it's understandable. With free agency, it's possible to turn around a franchise in a hurry, and that's what Nick Sirianni has to do.
There's no grace period here. There's no gradual build-up anymore. That NFL is gone.
That's why you see so many coaches fired after two years or even one.
NFL
Look at the Browns. Their last SIX head coaching hires lasted one or two years. Obviously, they finally got it right with Kevin Stefanski, but ask Eric Mangini, Pat Shurmur, Rob Chudzinski, Mike Pettine, Hue Jackson or Freddie Kitchens about five-year plans. Those six coached an average of 28 games before they were fired.
Just about every year some coach gets fired after a year or two. From Vance Joseph in Denver to Chip Kelly in San Francisco to Ken Whisenhunt in Tennessee to Adam Gase with the Jets and so on.
Which brings us to the Eagles.
Sirianni doesn't get five years. He doesn't get three years.
He gets 2021 and 2022 and you better show me something by then because this franchise has a history of coaches turning things around overnight and the expectations are nothing less.
The roster is aging? The quarterback is a mess? The GM keeps whiffing on draft day?
No excuses.
The last six Eagles head coaches have reached the playoffs by Year 2.
That's the expectation around here, and that's the standard Sirianni will be held to.
Now, there's no reason to think he can't handle it. He's a smart, successful, energetic guy. But I keep going back to something Jeff Lurie said once: "The NFL is a non-linear progression."
In other words, 4-11-1 this year does not mean you go 6-10 next year and then 8-8 the year after and 10-6 the year after that.
It means you better win now.
A little Eagles history:
Buddy Ryan took over a team in 1986 that had gone 21-35-1 the previous four years and went 10-6 with an NFC East title in his second non-strike season.
Rich Kotite got here in 1991 and went 10-6 the first year and then 11-5 with the Eagles' first playoff win in 12 years the next season.
Ray Rhodes went 10-6 and won a playoff game his first year — when he was Coach of the Year — and 10-6 again the next year.
Big Red? He inherited slop in 1999 and by 2000 the Eagles were 11-5 with a playoff win.
Even Chip Kelly went 10-6, 10-6 his first two years.
And of course, Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in Year 2.
Look at the W-L records of the last five Eagles head coaches after two years:
- Kotite: 21-11
- Rhodes: 20-12
- Reid: 16-16
- Kelly: 20-12
- Pederson: 20-12
Now, only Reid was really able to sustain that success. In fact, Reid is the only Eagles head coach since Vermeil to win a playoff game after his third season here. So the reality is it may be harder to sustain success than to have it initially.
What does it all mean?
It means that crusty old cliche about things always being darkest before the dawn has some truth to it.
Think back to when things looked the darkest around here.
In 1994, the Eagles lost their last seven games. They looked hopeless. They didn't have a quarterback. They were getting blown out every week. A year later under Rhodes, they played in the conference semifinals.
In 1998, the Eagles went 3-13 and averaged 10 points a game. Two years later under Reid, they reached the conference semifinals.
In 2012, the Eagles lost 11 of their last 12 games and finished 4-12. A year later, they went 10-6 and reached the playoffs under Chip.
And they were so bad in 2015, Kelly didn't even last the season. But two years later we had a parade up Broad Street.
Non-linear progression.
Sirianni will need some help. He'll need a first-rate staff. He'll need some players. He'll need some cooperation from the front office. He'll need some youth. He'll need a quarterback. He'll need Howie to nail the sixth pick, and that's a scary proposition for everybody.
But it can be done, and around here it has been done.
The Eagles have avoided any protracted stretches of losing for 35 years, and now it's Sirianni's turn to continue that tradition.
No excuses these days. You get 2021 to figure it out. But by 2022, we need results or it'll be someone else's turn.
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