The Eagles are riding high after a big win in London and gaining ground on both the Redskins and Cowboys as they sat idle last weekend during their bye.
But what does it mean for their chances to win the NFC East?
The computer models are actually all over the place, with two popular models having the Eagles as the favorites to win the division and two having them as the underdog. If we look at Vegas, after spending a week behind the Redskins as the second choice to win the division, the Eagles are back in front, barely.
Let’s start with the good.
FiveThirtyEight, popular for its election analytics, currently is giving the Eagles a 57 percent chance to win the NFC East and ranks them as the sixth-best team in the NFL.
Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network’s data science expert, is giving the Eagles a 58.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Now the bad.
CBSSports.com uses projections based on data from Stephen Oh of Sportsline, and his model has the Redskins as overwhelming 65-to-24 percent favorites to win the NFC East.
The New York Times, which ran 42,456 simulations on the matter, gives the Eagles a 42 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 40 percent chance to win the division. Since that model allows you to easily pick games to see how the odds change, let’s dig a little deeper.
There are three massive games for the Eagles this season and, you probably guessed it, the ones that stand out are this weekend’s test against the Cowboys and the two remaining games against the Redskins.
If the Eagles win this weekend, the model jumps just four percent to give the Eagles a 44 percent chance to win the NFC East, assuming the Redskins take care of business in Tampa, but a loss would drop the Eagles to just 22 percent. Should the Eagles win and the Redskins lose, their chances would balloon to 57 percent.
Let’s assume both the Eagles and Redskins go 2-1 over their next three games, the Week 13 matchup on Monday Night Football would have a 58 percent to 14 percent swing in a true must-win game against Washington at home.
The bottom line is, while you might feel really good about the Eagles' chances, given the remaining schedules for both teams, the computers are split and giving the Redskins a tremendous opportunity to take the NFC East title for the first time since 2015.
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