It’s the biggest sports event of the year, and, not coincidentally, the most bet-on event of every year. Eagles, Chiefs, Super Bowl LVII. Plenty to get to, so let’s get that bag.
All odds courtesy PointsBet
Super Bowl LVII: Eagles vs. Chiefs, Glendale, AZ – Sunday 6:30pm
Point spread (ML) – Eagles -1.5 (-120); Chiefs +1.5 (+100)
Point total – 50.5 points
Analysis: The game opened with the Chiefs favored by 2 points, but that line moved multiple points within minutes, as bettors quickly jumped on the chance to bet on the Eagles getting points. While the Chiefs have some advantages at some positions, I think the Eagles are the more complete team. I like the Birds to win in a close, low-scoring game.
Picks: Eagles ML, UNDER 50.5 points
Passing yards – Jalen Hurts 235.5, Patrick Mahomes 295.5
Analysis: As I mentioned, I think offenses will have trouble on Sunday. The Eagles' D ranks first against the pass this season, but Kansas City’s pass D has been vastly improved from the start of the season. Since their Week 8 bye, the Chiefs allowed just 212.2 pass yards per game, good for ninth in the NFL.
Picks: Hurts UNDER 235.5, Mahomes UNDER 295.5
RELATED: Craziest prop bets for Super Bowl LVII
Rushing yards – Jalen Hurts 50.5, Miles Sanders 60.5, Kenny Gainwell 20.5, Boston Scott 10.5, Isiah Pacheco 50.5, Jerick McKinnon 20.5, Patrick Mahomes 20.5
Analysis: I feel the Eagles will stay with the run, grind out drives and keep the ball away from Mahomes and the Chiefs. Hurts’ rushing numbers have slowly increased since returning from his shoulder injury, and his legs could mean the difference in this game. Kenny Gainwell has also emerged as a serious threat, both to defenses and to Miles Sanders’ touches. He had 29 touches in the team’s two playoff wins, or one more than he had in his last six regular season games. He is the change-of-pace back good offenses crave.
Pacheco has averaged 68.5 rushing yards over his last 11 games, 50.5 seems like a safe number for him. I’m hesitant to rule on the NFL MVP, just three weeks removed from a high ankle sprain, which is typically a 4-to-8-week recovery time.
Picks: Hurts OVER, Gainwell OVER; Pacheco OVER
Receiving Yards: Travis Kelce 80.5, A.J. Brown 70.5, DeVonta Smith 65.5, Dallas Goedert 50.5, JuJu Smith-Schuster 35.5, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 35.5, Kadarius Toney 25.5, Jerick McKinnon 20.5, Quez Watkins 10.5, Kenny Gainwell 10.5
Analysis: I’m still trying to figure out how the Eagles plan to control Travis Kelce. No one else seems to be able to do so, especially in the postseason. Aside from that, none of the Chiefs’ WRs have impressed me very much this season. Smith-Schuster is a No. 2 receiver asked to be a No. 1, and it’s not really working. He’s had three catches or fewer in 8-of-10.
As for the Eagles, Smith has seemed to be the more consistent performer over Brown in recent weeks. Not to say Sunday won’t be different, but Smith is not seeing the best CB on every team, and the Eagles have been able to exploit that.
Picks: Smith OVER, Goedert OVER; Kelce OVER, Smith-Schuster UNDER, McKinnon OVER
Anytime TD: Travis Kelce -130, Jalen Hurts -115, A.J. Brown +120, Miles Sanders +120, Isiah Pacheco +130, DeVonta Smith +160, Dallas Goedert +170, Jerick McKinnon +170, Kadarius Toney +210, JuJu Smith-Schuster +225, Marquez Valdes-Scantling +270, Kenny Gainwell +290, Clyde Edwards-Helaire +320, Patrick Mahomes +500
Analysis: The connection between Mahomes and Kelce, especially in the red zone, is unlike anything football fans have ever seen. They’re like twins who finish each other’s sentences, except on a football field. Kelce knows exactly where to find a hole in the defense, and Mahomes puts the ball right where he needs it.
As for the Eagles, I like both Brown and Smith to find the end zone in this one. The two WRs led the team in red zone targets with 16 and 12, respectively.
Picks: Kelce, Brown, Smith